This week will usher in a super week of market volatility. First, the large and small non-farm data will be released, then the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Senate meeting, and then the US PMI data will be released. Reference, so it is bound to cause a big swing, everyone should pay attention to the orientation of the news.
The impact of the US election on the US stock index
In the second half of the year, the impact of election news on the stock market will increase.
Since the first televised debate between Trump and Biden, the general election situation has undergone subtle changes. This change comes from the internal situation of the two parties in the United States. Compared with the 2020 general election, the Republican Party is actually not very united.
Although Trump's polls are high, judging from the support of the Republican Party, there are still some opposition forces to check and balance Trump. Therefore, the election process of Trump in 2020 is not very smooth. The situation in this year's U.S. general election is the opposite.
Over the weekend, there was news that "Democratic donors want to change presidential candidates." Regardless of the authenticity of this news, such news came out less than half a year before the general election, indicating that some members of the Democratic Party Congressmen are worried about Biden's performance.
If there is a real replacement, it will definitely have an impact on the Democratic Party's election. As a result, the market began to price in Trump's policy orientation when he returned to power, and Trump's policy advocated corporate tax cuts and tariff increases. The follow-up trend of the stock market may be a replica of 2018. Everyone needs to pay attention to this.
Super Week directly impacts precious metals
The news of next month's super week is basically around the starting point and path of the Fed's interest rate cut. Since there is no consensus in the current market, the volatility is destined to change significantly with market news.
Moreover, the trend of gold has hovered around 2350 for 5 consecutive weeks, which means that there will be a new clear direction after the breakthrough, and everyone will follow up. The same is true for silver. At present, silver is still on the edge of the 10-week moving average of the mid-term trend line. If it goes up, the bottom of the stage will be confirmed. If it goes down, the mid-term bullish trend will end. It needs a major adjustment before rushing up again (fully wash the previous bullish sentiment), and due to the large swing of silver, if it breaks (about 28.5), it is not recommended that everyone hold it to death. It is the best policy to buy the bottom after the fall.
Agricultural products after the planting area report
The heavy planting area report and quarterly inventory report released at the end of June are generally negative data.
The inventory report shows that the inventory of the three major crops is higher than that of the same period last year, while the planting area report shows that corn is extremely negative. Although US soybeans are not negative, the degree of positivity generally has limited support for soybean prices.
So far, after the June report, unless the weather in North America Extremely abnormal (there is no movement at present), otherwise agricultural products will enter the journey of bottoming out until they drop to a new planting cost range (US soybeans, for example, are between 950-1050 per month, depending on the yield determined by the weather), so it is expected that agricultural products will test the cost range in July-August, and everyone should be more patient. As for the trend of crude oil, another important component of agricultural products, I will discuss it with you in detail next week.
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