Firstly,On Wednesday, July 3, the US ADP research institute released a report showing that the number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 150,000 in June, significantly lower than the expected 165,000, and a slight decline from the previous value of 152,000.This is the third consecutive month that ADP employment has declined and the lowest level in four months.
Second,Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of June 29 in the United States was 238,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000.The highest since January this year.
At the same time, data from the U.S. Department of Labor also showed that the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits increased to 1.86 million in the week ending June 22.It is the highest level since November 2021. Claims for unemployment benefits rose for the ninth straight week, the longest running since 2018, indicating that more Americans are struggling to find new jobs.
Third,On Wednesday, data released by ISM showed that the U.S. ISM services PMI in June unexpectedly fell significantly lower than expected.Falling into shrinking, service sector activity shrank at the fastest pace in four years.
Data showed that the ISM non-manufacturing index in June was 48.8, lower than the expected 52.6, and the value before May was 53.8. 50 is the watershed between prosperity and decline.
The number of employed people is not as good as expected, and the number of initial and renewed jobless claims has increased, suggesting that the U.S. labor market is slowing down, while the purchasing managers' index of the service industry is not only shrinking, but also plunging at the fastest rate in four years.
These triple data are casting a shadow over the release of non-farm payrolls data this Friday. This also means that the urgency for the Fed to cut interest rates in the future is increasing.
The relay explosion of the triple data directly promoted the short-term diving of the the US Dollar Index, setting a new period low around 105, and also pushing the price of gold and silver higher. The price of gold took advantage of the trend to set a new period high of 2,364.24 USD/oz.
From the perspective of daily rhythm, it will become very important whether the upper high of 2368.74 is refreshed next, because once the high point is refreshed, it means that a new upward trend has been confirmed in the short term, and the future goal is to brush the record high of 2450.
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