The economic fundamentals news is relatively calm this weekend, so it is expected that next week's market fluctuations will be concentrated around the non-farm data. The digital currency circle ushered in Trump's important speech, which made the circle boil for a while. Trump's remarks about Bitcoin near the general election are probably some kind of canvassing strategy.
When everyone sees that there is no fluctuation in Bitcoin before and after Trump's speech, it shows that the market is cautious about this remark, so you can still observe more and then follow up.
1. U.S. stock index differentiation continues
As a symbol of the recent "Trump deal", the Dow is strong and the Nasdaq is weak. It has not died down so quickly in the short term.
After all, Trump's polls are still slightly ahead, and it is estimated that it will not change until the dust of the general election is settled. The continued differentiation does not mean that the three major U.S. stock indexes will fall all the way. After all, the Fed's interest rate cut will also provide some support for the index, and the U.S. stock index has not fluctuated much in election years.) will be a strong support position between 5300 and 5400 points.
If it falls below, the recent upward trend of the U.S. stock index will end. If it bottoms out and rebounds around 5300 in August, then everyone can expect that the future market will be similar to the rising trend after the index bottomed out in May this year. Although the increase is not very large, it will continue. Therefore, if the index reaches a low point, you might as well set a stop loss to follow up. Maybe it will have a good effect at the end of the year.
2. Crude oil has reached a critical moment for breakthrough
With the passage of time, the oil price has reached the time when it is ready to show a trend direction. Starting from September, Saudi Arabia and Russia will gradually relax the amount of voluntary production cuts, which will have a negative effect on the fundamentals of crude oil supply, but the negative effect is very moderate and requires the cooperation of other events and news.
This "Trump Deal" was born. On the premise that Trump will greatly increase the supply of crude oil in the United States, it will be very negative for Saudi Arabia and Russia to relax voluntary production cuts at this time. Therefore, I'm afraid it will be difficult for oil prices to fluctuate unexpectedly.
Technically, crude oil has already appeared at the lower limit of the range of the oscillating triangle. According to historical statistics, after the breakthrough, there will be rapid trend fluctuations. The speed is so fast and the news panic will make most investors at a loss, let alone dare to rush to buy the bottom. Therefore, the best thing to do at present is to wait for the oil price to drop quickly, and then use strategies with controllable losses such as options or futures option combinations to buy crude oil at the bottom.
Friends who expect to be short selling will be the focus of observation in the next few weeks. Once you break through, buying put options and ignoring the market toss is the best strategy. Since the oil price fluctuates greatly, the impact cost of toss is too high. It is better to calculate the loss and hold it. Options come simply.
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