Apple Stock Fell Nearly 2% on Weaker iPhone 16 Demand Speculation. What’s Next?

Tiger_James Ooi

Apple $Apple(AAPL)$ fell as much as 4% on Monday due to:

Speculation of weaker first-weekend pre-orders for the iPhone 16 compared to the iPhone 15.
Shorter delivery lead times: The iPhone 16 Pro Max's waiting time is 21.5 days in the first 72 hours since pre-orders began, compared to 32.5 days for the iPhone 15 Pro Max during the same period last year.

However, I believe it may be too early to conclude that iPhone 16 demand is weak due to the following reasons:

The iPhone 15 Pro Max had longer lead times due to a camera lens supply issue.
The iPhone 16 Pro Max may have better supply availability this year.
AI features are being rolled out gradually, and AI will be unavailable in Chinese and Japanese markets until 2025. Customers may not be rushing to buy the iPhone yet due to the delayed rollout of AI features.

Conclusion:

Investors cannot gauge demand issues based solely on shorter shipping times without knowing Apple's actual iPhone supply levels.
I remain constructive on Apple and believe that Apple Intelligence (AI) features will kick-start a multi-year upgrade cycle.
Bloomberg analysts have set a 12-month target price of $246.23, representing a 13.6% upside compared to yesterday’s closing price of $216.79.
Based on technical analysis, the major support levels are $214.15 and $197.20.

Source: Bloomberg, 18 Sep 2024

Source: Tradingview, 18 Sep 2024

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Xosto
10-14
Xosto
Gud yoo

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What news/movements are worth noting in the market today? Any stocks to watch? \n2. What trading opportunities are there? Do you have any plans?\n🎁 Make a post here, everyone stands a chance to win Tiger coins!","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8eaff2e99964ab7a80d92cc196fcd3"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cc45c9925b22cf1f2a996b0326a1d5a","width":"876","height":"842"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/afaf6e3a0421530f2cb46f52ff94c908","width":"1611","height":"857"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cc45c9925b22cf1f2a996b0326a1d5a","width":"876","height":"842"}],"title":"Apple Stock Fell Nearly 2% on Weaker iPhone 16 Demand Speculation. What’s Next?","html":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>\n <strong>Apple</strong> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> <strong>fell as much as 4% on Monday due to:</strong>\n</blockquote>\n<ol>\n <li><p>Speculation of weaker first-weekend pre-orders for the iPhone 16 compared to the iPhone 15.</p></li>\n <li><p>Shorter delivery lead times: The iPhone 16 Pro Max's waiting time is 21.5 days in the first 72 hours since pre-orders began, compared to 32.5 days for the iPhone 15 Pro Max during the same period last year.</p><p>&nbsp;</p></li>\n</ol>\n<blockquote>\n However, I believe it may be too early to conclude that iPhone 16 demand is weak due to the following reasons:\n</blockquote>\n<ol>\n <li><p>The <strong>iPhone 15 Pro Max</strong> had longer lead times due to a camera lens supply issue.</p></li>\n <li><p>The <strong>iPhone 16 Pro Max</strong> may have better supply availability this year.</p></li>\n <li><p>AI features are being rolled out gradually, and AI will be unavailable in Chinese and Japanese markets until 2025. Customers may not be rushing to buy the iPhone yet due to the delayed rollout of AI features.</p><p>&nbsp;</p></li>\n</ol>\n<blockquote>\n <strong>Conclusion:</strong>\n</blockquote>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Investors cannot gauge demand issues based solely on shorter shipping times without knowing Apple's actual iPhone supply levels.</p></li>\n <li><p>I remain constructive on Apple and believe that Apple Intelligence (AI) features will kick-start a multi-year upgrade cycle.</p></li>\n <li><p>Bloomberg analysts have set a 12-month target price of $246.23, representing a 13.6% upside compared to yesterday’s closing price of $216.79.</p></li>\n <li><p>Based on technical analysis, the major support levels are $214.15 and $197.20.</p><p></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cc45c9925b22cf1f2a996b0326a1d5a\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"842\"><span>Source: Bloomberg, 18 Sep 2024</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/afaf6e3a0421530f2cb46f52ff94c908\" tg-width=\"1611\" tg-height=\"857\"><span>Source: Tradingview, 18 Sep 2024</span></p>\n<p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>\n <strong>Apple</strong> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> <strong>fell as much as 4% on Monday due to:</strong>\n</blockquote>\n<ol>\n <li><p>Speculation of weaker first-weekend pre-orders for the iPhone 16 compared to the iPhone 15.</p></li>\n <li><p>Shorter delivery lead times: The iPhone 16 Pro Max's waiting time is 21.5 days in the first 72 hours since pre-orders began, compared to 32.5 days for the iPhone 15 Pro Max during the same period last year.</p><p>&nbsp;</p></li>\n</ol>\n<blockquote>\n However, I believe it may be too early to conclude that iPhone 16 demand is weak due to the following reasons:\n</blockquote>\n<ol>\n <li><p>The <strong>iPhone 15 Pro Max</strong> had longer lead times due to a camera lens supply issue.</p></li>\n <li><p>The <strong>iPhone 16 Pro Max</strong> may have better supply availability this year.</p></li>\n <li><p>AI features are being rolled out gradually, and AI will be unavailable in Chinese and Japanese markets until 2025. Customers may not be rushing to buy the iPhone yet due to the delayed rollout of AI features.</p><p>&nbsp;</p></li>\n</ol>\n<blockquote>\n <strong>Conclusion:</strong>\n</blockquote>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Investors cannot gauge demand issues based solely on shorter shipping times without knowing Apple's actual iPhone supply levels.</p></li>\n <li><p>I remain constructive on Apple and believe that Apple Intelligence (AI) features will kick-start a multi-year upgrade cycle.</p></li>\n <li><p>Bloomberg analysts have set a 12-month target price of $246.23, representing a 13.6% upside compared to yesterday’s closing price of $216.79.</p></li>\n <li><p>Based on technical analysis, the major support levels are $214.15 and $197.20.</p><p></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cc45c9925b22cf1f2a996b0326a1d5a\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"842\"><span>Source: Bloomberg, 18 Sep 2024</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/afaf6e3a0421530f2cb46f52ff94c908\" tg-width=\"1611\" tg-height=\"857\"><span>Source: Tradingview, 18 Sep 2024</span></p>\n<p></p></body></html>","text":"Apple $Apple(AAPL)$ fell as much as 4% on Monday due to: Speculation of weaker first-weekend pre-orders for the iPhone 16 compared to the iPhone 15. Shorter delivery lead times: The iPhone 16 Pro Max's waiting time is 21.5 days in the first 72 hours since pre-orders began, compared to 32.5 days for the iPhone 15 Pro Max during the same period last year. However, I believe it may be too early to conclude that iPhone 16 demand is weak due to the following reasons: The iPhone 15 Pro Max had longer lead times due to a camera lens supply issue. The iPhone 16 Pro Max may have better supply availability this year. AI features are being rolled out gradually, and AI will be unavailable in Chinese and Japanese markets until 2025. Customers may not be rushing to buy the iPhone yet due to the delayed rollout of AI features. Conclusion: Investors cannot gauge demand issues based solely on shorter shipping times without knowing Apple's actual iPhone supply levels. I remain constructive on Apple and believe that Apple Intelligence (AI) features will kick-start a multi-year upgrade cycle. Bloomberg analysts have set a 12-month target price of $246.23, representing a 13.6% upside compared to yesterday’s closing price of $216.79. Based on technical analysis, the major support levels are $214.15 and $197.20. Source: Bloomberg, 18 Sep 2024 Source: Tradingview, 18 Sep 2024","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":66,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":8,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350711087075704","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["AAPL"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1146,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":359942184411376,"commentId":"359942184411376","gmtCreate":1728904391592,"gmtModify":1728910739048,"authorId":4191430145443862,"author":{"id":4191430145443862,"idStr":"4191430145443862","authorId":4191430145443862,"name":"Xosto","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":350711087075704,"objectIdStr":"350711087075704","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Gud <u>yoo</u>","text":"Gud <u>yoo</u>","html":"Gud <u>yoo</u>","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/350711087075704"}