The monthly Market Cycle Guidebook is a key resource for investors — providing insight into the stage of the business cycle, monetary policy trends, leading indicators, earnings momentum, valuations across multiple different assets and markets, long-term return expectations, and tactical asset allocation views.
Key Findings from the Latest Monthly pack:
Global monetary policy settings are increasingly shifting from headwind to tailwind as inflation falls and economic cycle data remain soft.
Among the asset classes most at risk given valuations and the stage of the cycle are US tech stocks, US dollar, corporate credit.
Areas which see superior upside risk/reward meanwhile include government bonds, commodities, emerging markets, and certain sectors on a tactical basis such as defensives, REITs, small caps.
Rotation and Relative value are thus key themes along with smart diversification and risk management.
The major macro dilemma for investors at this stage is the tails; resurgence risk on the one end (growth reaccelerates, inflation resurges), and recession risk on the other end (recession takes hold, deflation comes into focus).
The main upside risks for growth assets would be: a macro middle path (goldilocks, policy perfection), China stimulus, and in markets a series of prospective bullish rotation trades…
https://www.topdowncharts.pro/p/market-cycle-guidebook-september-698
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