hopefully, yield won't go down too much, so can get higher [USD] [USD] [USD]
According to the betting site Polymarket, Trump currently has a 64% chance of winning the November election, while Harris trails with a 36% chance.
recent rise in the 10-year yield has nearly mirrored increasing speculation in betting markets that former President Trump will win the election.
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Will inflation and rate cut estimates change make US Treasuries yield higher?
Will market pullback due to Treasury's forces?
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根据最新的新闻报道,以下是与美国国债收益率、通胀、降息预期和市场回调相关的文章:
根据彭博社的报道,美国国债市场的波动性指数在近期达到了今年的最高点,预示着更多的动荡可能在即。文章链接:US Treasury Market Volatility Seen in Coming Days, According to Gauge ...
根据晨星网的分析,如果唐纳德·特朗普再次当选总统,对美国国债市场的威胁不是来自于债券发行量的大幅增加,而是来自通胀压力的复苏。文章链接:Treasury market under Trump at risk from inflation, not larger fiscal ...
根据IG的报道,针对债券市场,特别是美国国债,这些通常被视为避险资产,在选举期间往往会出现需求上升的情况。举例来说,在2000/2001年的选举之后的12个月里,美国2年期国债收益率下降了近60%。文章链接:The Effect of US Presidential Elections on Stock and Bond Market ... - IG
基于以上文章,可以得出以下结论:
目前市场对于美国国债市场的预期存在较大的波动性,可能会面临更多的动荡。
如果特朗普再次当选总统,对国债市场的威胁主要来自通胀压力的复苏,而不是更大的财政赤字。
债券市场通常会在选举期间出现需求上升的情况,尤其是对于被视为避险资产的美国国债。
需要注意的是,以上结论并不构成投资建议。投资决策应该综合考虑更多因素,并在专业机构或人士的指导下进行。风险提示:投资有风险,入市需谨慎。