Hello Tigers, the voting day for the 2024 US election is November 5.
The results of the new US president are about to be announced.
Some recent public information shows that Goldman Sachs has different expectations for the performance of US stocks, various markets, and different industries during the election week based on different US presidential election results.
According to Goldman Sachs's point of view:
For the US stock market, whether Trump or Harris wins, the stock market will rise.
But the market reaction to Harris's victory is greater, and the $.SPX(.SPX)$ , $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ and $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ are expected to rise by 2.4%, 4% and 3.8% respectively. In contrast, if Trump wins, these indexes are expected to rise by 0.94%, 1.3% and 1.8%.
In terms of industries and concepts, Trump's victory is more beneficial to $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ , $WTI Crude Oil - main 2412(CLmain)$ and regional banks, and it is expected that the election week will rise by 8.3%, 4.3% and 3.5% respectively relative to the $.SPX(.SPX)$ index (excluding the top 7 stocks).
Harris' victory is more favorable to AI. The semiconductor and overall AI sectors are expected to rise 7.9% and 4.9% relative to the $.SPX(.SPX)$ (excluding the top 7 stocks). In the case of Trump's victory, the increase is only 2.4% and 1.8%.
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Below you will find five charts showing the expected returns of various indices and sectors from Goldman Sachs’ forecasts.
1) Goldman Sachs predictions of Benchmark Indexes for the US election results：
Relevant ETFs: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ , $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$
2） Goldman Sachs predictions of industries under different US election results：
Relevant ETFs: $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ , $Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf(XOP)$ , $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ , $SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF(KRE)$ , $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ , $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ , $Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLB)$ , $Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLC)$ , $Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLRE)$ , $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ , $Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP)$ , $Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLV)$ , $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$
3）Goldman Sachs predictions of AI area under different US election outcomes：
Relevant ETFs: $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ , $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ , $Global X Uranium ETF(URA)$ , $VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF(NLR)$ , $Sprott Uranium Miners ETF(URNM)$
4） Goldman Sachs predictions of election themes under different president outcomes：
Relevant ETFs: $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ , $Bitwise Bitcoin ETF(BITB)$ , $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ , $SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF(KRE)$ , $Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF(PAVE)$ , $iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF(IFRA)$ , $iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF(ITA)$ , $Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF(PPA)$ , $SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF(XAR)$ , $iShares Global Clean Energy ETF(ICLN)$ , $First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund(GRID)$
5） Goldman Sachs predictions of thematic investings under different president victories：
Here come to the article end and we hope today's sharing will be helpful to you and happy investings.
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4） Goldman Sachs predictions of election themes under different president outcomes：
Relevant ETFs: $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ , $Bitwise Bitcoin ETF(BITB)$ , $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ , $SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF(KRE)$ , $Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF(PAVE)$ , $iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF(IFRA)$ , $iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF(ITA)$ , $Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF(PPA)$ , $SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF(XAR)$ , $iShares Global Clean Energy ETF(ICLN)$ , $First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund(GRID)$
3）Goldman Sachs predictions of AI area under different US election outcomes：
Relevant ETFs: $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ , $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ , $Global X Uranium ETF(URA)$ , $VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF(NLR)$ , $Sprott Uranium Miners ETF(URNM)$
2） Goldman Sachs predictions of industries under different US election results：
Relevant ETFs: $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ , $Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf(XOP)$ , $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ , $SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF(KRE)$ , $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ , $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ , $Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLB)$ , $Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLC)$ , $Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLRE)$ , $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ , $Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP)$ , $Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLV)$ , $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$
1) Goldman Sachs predictions of Benchmark Indexes for the US election results：
Relevant ETFs: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ , $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$
5） Goldman Sachs predictions of thematic investings under different president victories：