What You Need to Know About the US Presidential Election?

Tiger_James Ooi
11-04
US betting sites currently show different forecasts:

  • Polymarket: Trump wins the presidency, Republicans win the Senate, Democrats win the House.

  • PredictIt: Harris wins the presidency, Republicans win the Senate, Democrats win the House.

 

Trump vs. Harris:

  • The US presidential election will be decided by the Electoral College.

  • Kamala Harris, 60, the Democratic nominee, or Donald Trump, 78, the Republican nominee, needs to win 270 electoral votes to secure the presidency.

 

Senate:

  • The U.S. Senate currently comprises 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans, with Democrats in control.

  • 34 out of 100 seats (one-third of the Senate) are up for election.

  • Of these, Democrats and allied Independents hold 23 seats, while Republicans hold 11.

  • Some analysts predict that Republicans are likely to win the Senate because more Democrats are up for re-election this year.

 

House:

  • All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs.

  • Republicans currently hold 220 seats, while Democrats hold 213. To gain control of the House, either party needs 218 seat.

 

When Will We Know Who Won the Election?

  • It will likely take days before the outcome is known.

  • Given that the U.S. presidential race is expected to be extremely close and millions of mail-in ballots need to be counted, the results might not be known on election night.

  • In 2020, the Associated Press (AP) declared Joe Biden the winner four days after Election Day. AP has a strong track record for accuracy in election calls.

 

For insights into how the election outcome could affect US stocks, please refer to the article linked here. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$

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