Here comes WassUp, aka TINA - Tiger Introducing New Alpha, our tips for trading.
$Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ is still looking good, yet wait for the signals to reemerge.
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1. Market recap
US stocks were lackluster last week. The market rallied on Friday, but gains narrowed at the close, with the $.SPX(.SPX)$ ending up 0.4% and the $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ climbing 0.8%. Both indices fell more than 1% for the week. Big tech stocks declined, as weak earnings outlooks led to a wait-and-see attitude in the market. The chip index slumped more than 4% for the week, weighed down by an audit scandal.
Will there be a soft landing? The answer is blowin' in the wind. Hurricane and Boeing strike disrupted the job market, causing a sharp decline in new jobs added in the US in October. Although the October nonfarm payrolls report was disappointing, it was somewhat expected. Given the relatively strong US economic data released recently, expectations of a "soft landing" in the market have strengthened.
Gold prices retreated after rallying, posting a weekly loss. Gold prices fluctuated sharply over the past week, with the New York futures price briefly climbing to a new all-time high of $2,800 per ounce before retreating. What's behind the volatility? Short-term funds taking profits and a decline in net long positions may be the main reasons. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net long positions in gold, silver, copper, and other commodities all declined. However, long-term funds remain inflows.
2. Folie à Deux
Harris and Trump head to battleground states 2 days ahead of election, leaving the rest of world watching closely who will ultimately win the White House. However, one thing is certain: The Federal Reserve's 25bp rate cut this week is almost there. On top of that, contradictory and unstable economic data, as well as policy uncertainty after the general election, will attract closer attention. This week's interest rate meeting will be held two days after the general election (this Thursday US time), and the Federal Reserve hopes to remain apolitical. Market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve's policy are very strong, and it is generally believed that there is a high probability of a 25bp rate cut in both November and December.
While others are greedy, Buffett begins to fear and significantly reduces his stock positions in Q3. On the one hand, $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ , $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ Berkshire continues to reduce its holdings in $Apple(AAPL)$ . After slashing by nearly 50% in the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway reduced its holdings by another 25% in Q3 (although Apple remains its largest holding). On the other hand, in Q3, Berkshire sold a net of 34.6 billion US dollars in stocks, which is the eighth consecutive quarter of being a net seller of stocks. Buffett chose to hold 325.2 billion US dollars in cash and suspend the repurchase of his own stocks. The 94-year-old Oracle of Omaha has shown his concern about the current market overheat and murky outllok through his actions.
Gold may hit a new high with the help of the US general election. The US general election this week is crucial for the trend of gold. Both candidates have promised a large-scale government spending, and the market is concerned about the resilience of US inflation. Gold may hit a new historical high after the US general election. Gold has attracted the attention of many investors. Although the international gold price has fallen somewhat after rising, the long-term fundamentals still have good support.
3. $Reddit(RDDT)$ : More than Wall Street bets
October 31st, Reddit's stock price closed by nearly 42%. After nearly two decades, Reddit is breaking out into the mainstream. When it first went public, Reddit had a rocky start, with its share price dropping sharply after the IPO frenzy. However, with an excellent fundamental situation and a stable financial performance, Reddit regained its footing. At last week's earnings meeting, this social media company stood out, with its revenue, user numbers, and profits in Q3 significantly BEATING market expectations.
Reddit's moat is its sufficiently differentiated community, with a high user growth rate and a promising monetization future. By focusing on user discussion boards and topics of greatest interest, it has created a differentiated and rich social media platform. Secondly, Reddit has MERELY 100 million daily active users, which is still a small base compared to industry giants, but its growth rate is astonishing, reaching 47%, far exceeding social platforms such as Snap (SNAP) and Pinterest (PINS). Finally, as the company further promotes internationally and pioneers new commercialization avenues with AI, its advertising revenue and user e-commerce ecosystem revenue are worth looking forward to, and the prospects for its commercialization path are promising.
Reddit provides an optimistic guidance, with continued growth in Q4 and a more cost-effective stock price after the pullback. The company expects Q4 revenue to be between $385-400M, exceeding analysts' expectations of $356M; adjusted EBITDA will be between $110-125M, exceeding analysts' expectations of $87M. Recently, due to factors such as the macroeconomy, uncertainty in the general election, and profit-taking, the stock price has undergone some adjustments. Once the consolidation is in place, there will be a relatively favorable HOLDing opportunity.
4. With CashBoost, stay in the game and stay relevant
As an individual trader, the primary goal of money management is NOT to make profits, but to STAY IN THE GAME. To ensure survival, one must avoid the risk of losing everything, and only then can one pursue stable returns, and finally high returns. But survival comes first.
"Don't risk all that you have" is the primary principle of trading. Losers violate this principle by investing too much in a single transaction. After losing money, they continue to trade large amounts or invest more funds. Most losers lose everything while trying to recover their losses. Trading is never about all-in, and some just get to know it after it is all too late. It should not be a surprise that a well-done money management can prevent us from getting into such a situation in the very first place.
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