The most closely watched development over the weekend was the progress in talks between the United States and Iran. Based on the weekend news flow, there has been some progress, but the core issues remain unresolved. Since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked a month ago, Gulf countries’ crude inventories are also nearing full capacity. If, during this two-week ceasefire window, the United States and Iran still fail to reach a better agreement that ensures safe passage through the strait, the market is likely to further lift long-term inflation sentiment, creating trading opportunities in the forward contracts of many commodities.I. Focus on the Forward Crude Oil ContractWhen this round of oil price gains first began, the market initially believed the blockade of the strait would be only a sho

💬 Gold bugs & mining investors — Are you ready? Gold stocks have been crushed, but seasonals + fundamentals are lining up for a spring surge. Is this the bottom? Let’s talk! $黄金主连 2606(GCmain)$ Over the past two months, gold stocks have endured extreme volatility: a sharp rally, a flash crash, a V‑shaped rebound, and another steep drop. The GDX Gold Miners ETF hit an all‑time high in late January, surging more than 30% year‑to‑date at one point. It then suffered a nearly 13% single‑day plunge, rebounded to fresh highs, and resumed its decline in March. Since then, GDX has tumbled more than 30% in just three weeks. Yet after such violent swings, technical, seasonal, and fundamental signals are aligning — suggesting the “spring” in gold stoc

💬 Gold & mining investors: Gold crashed but gold stocks held strong. Is this the classic “divergence bottom” signal? Let’s debate! $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ suffered a brutal collapse in March, plunging more than 13% — its worst monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis. Yet gold stocks showed remarkable resilience: they did not sell off in lockstep, and some top miners even posted double-digit gains late in the month. Gold fell hard, but gold stocks did not. Is this just a temporary divergence… or is the market quietly shifting direction? Independent analyst Ross Norman described late-March gains as a mere “dead cat bounce,” bluntly stating it “was not a real rebound at all.” The core driver of the crash was a dramatic

HALO bubble or a SaaS golden bottom? Read the Live Recap for James Early & Eoin Tracy: | (📺 Missed the livestream? Watch the full replay: Full Replay Available ) "From 1925 to 2023—a span of 99 years—just 3.2% of US stocks contributed all the gains. 60% lost money over 20 years, and 40% went to zero." When James Early, CEO of Curio Financial, dropped this bombshell during the livestream, the chat went silent. This isn't fear-mongering—it's the reality check that framed tonight's "Bubble Trouble" session. With the US market down for consecutive weeks and geopolitical fog thickening, how do retail investors find stocks that aren’t in that 97%?

$UBS Group AG(UBS)$ 's latest global macro strategy report and integrating the core insights from BlackRock CEO's interview, a clear signal emerges: the market still holds overly optimistic expectations for a "swift resolution to the Middle East conflict" but severely underestimates the probability of a global recession triggered by surging oil prices. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked and global crude oil inventories being depleted at an accelerated pace, if inventories bottom out by the end of April, a restructuring of global asset pricing logic may be triggered in early May—recession risk has entered the countdown. I. Dual Warning from UBS & BlackRock! $150 Oil = The "Death Switch" for a Global Recession As the "lifeblood" of the g