After last week's CPI print, inflation expectations eased slightly, while the U.S.–Iran conflict flared up again and the previously-open strait was once more suspended. That said, this kind of escalation seems to occur almost every weekend, and by the time financial markets open it is quickly shrugged off—so I would not advise anyone to be overly anxious; wait until the market opens and it will speak for itself. Faced with this kind of murky, hard-to-read news flow, the best trading approach is to consider the technical indicators alone, and then set the corresponding strategy based on those indicators. Chart: CCTV News — “U.S.–Iran clashes hit civilian facilities across several countries; Iran warns of an all-out offensive” (reported July 19, 2026) I. U.S. equity indices have flipped shor

Right after the latest CPI print, a market that looks calm on the surface may in fact be quietly brewing a turning point—and an opportunity. In this piece, Owen wants to talk about the topic that is probably on everyone's mind: has the moment to go long gold finally come? Let's lead with our core conclusion: gold is very likely to see a sizable rebound. The reason is that, with CPI unexpectedly cooling, the market's expectations for Fed rate hikes have already faded. The 2-year Treasury yield has broken below its uptrend, dragging the US Dollar Index into a bearish technical structure. Once the Dollar Index breaks its key level, a gold rebound could well be triggered. But this is only a “rebound,” not a “reversal”—to lock in this move steadily, we still have to strictly follow the discipli

The start of each month is usually the key window for the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, so at the beginning of every month many people tend to see sizable swings in their investment accounts. This is because the NFP data often reshapes the market's expectations for the future economy, which in turn changes the price direction of related financial products. Last week's NFP data came in contrary to market expectations: the market had originally anticipated a figure of more than 100,000 new jobs, but the actual result was an increase of only 57,000. A slowdown in job gains indicates that the economy is not as “hot” as expected, which reduces the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. As a result, since the data was released, the market has sharply lower

Our two prior key calls now appear to have largely played out: First, the pullback in U.S. equities from elevated levels would likely remain within an 8% range; second, crude oil had most likely topped, with WTI futures expected to retest the $65 level in the near term. Review：Oil Plunges, Undercurrents Thrive? June 19 Deal Could Flip — Option Strategy to Capture Time Value Red Alert! The Dollar Just Broke Out—How to Bulletproof Your Stock Portfolio Now！ Many market participants have attributed last night’s strong rebound in U.S. equities to Micron’s better-than-expected earnings. However, it is important to recognize that Micron’s results merely act

The current US financial market has flashed a very strong red warning signal: a strong dollar may return, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to experience a short-to-medium-term impulsive upward rally in the near future. From a technical perspective in the futures market, the DXY has broken through crucial resistance levels. Following the typical price action rules of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, the dollar's rise could mirror the previous decline in crude oil, triggering an impulsive upward trend of significant magnitude: $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund(UDN)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$</

Over the weekend, renewed exchanges of fire between Israel and Lebanon reignited tensions in the US-Iran negotiations. Iran announced that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to zero, effectively placing the strait under a de facto blockade and setting market nerves on edge once again. Absent any news of a negotiated settlement, crude oil is poised for a substantial rebound next week, though the outlook for other commodities and equity indices remains grim. With the US midterm elections approaching, a "fight-and-talk" dynamic will define future market action. The US is eager to restore navigation to lower oil prices and fulfill campaign promises, while Iran aims to leverage the strait's reopening to extract maximum economic concessions. Consequently, negotiations wi

After two months of back-and-forth, the US and Iran finally announced over the weekend that a ceasefire memorandum of understanding had been reached. Although the final signing is still a few days away, the market has already fully priced in the impact of the news. Before the fourth quarter, geopolitical issues are expected to stop bothering investors. On the trading side, we still lean toward the view that most assets will remain range-bound over the next one to two quarters. As long as there are attractive relative lows or highs and the risk-reward is acceptable, there will be opportunities to try and trade the move. We will not go into the details of the agreement itself. Those can be found on various financial websites. Instead, we will focus on how asset prices are moving. Crude oil i

This round of correction in the U.S. stock market has a very clear trigger: crude oil stayed at elevated levels for too long, pushing up U.S. inflation data. This, in turn, raised expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and led to an unexpected surge in U.S. Treasury yields. As a result, capital rotated from equities into bonds, and under the pressure of higher interest rates, U.S. stocks experienced profit-taking and mean reversion. $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 - Jun 2026(MNQ2606)$ $ProShares UltraPr

Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf

Recent capital flows in the financial markets paint quite an intriguing picture. While everyone is still watching to see if US stocks have peaked or will continue to surge, massive funds have quietly executed a major rotation. In today's note, I will use the latest market fund data to discuss these ongoing trend changes. Let me start with the conclusion: the current downward trend in U.S. stocks may not have actually ended, but until the S&P 500 posts a pullback of more than 8%, we should not preemptively assume this is a massive bear market. We can consider carefully building short positions, but once key market signals appear, we must take profits promptly and adjust our bearish view. $S&P 500(.SPX)$

A quiet shift is taking place at the very top of the global aluminum supply chain. Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite producer, plans to announce new export control measures in June. The goal is not to stop exports, but to manage volumes and push prices back to what the government sees as a more reasonable level. Bauxite sits at the starting point of the aluminum chain. It is processed into alumina, which is then used to produce primary aluminum. If bauxite starts to be repriced, the impact will not stop at the mine gate. Alumina, primary aluminum and downstream aluminum products will all have to recalculate their costs. Why Guinea Is Acting Guinea is not short of bauxite. The issue is that it may have been selling too much, too cheaply. In 2025, Guinea’s bauxite exports rose 25% to about

Over the weekend, there were frequent positive signals from the U.S.–Iran peace negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the reopening of the Strait could be imminent. As discussed in last week’s live session, the core sticking point in current negotiations lies in uranium enrichment. The U.S. is seeking Iran’s commitment to abandon uranium enrichment before lifting sanctions, while Iran prefers that sanctions be lifted first before addressing enrichment. If this divergence can be reconciled, negotiations could accelerate; otherwise, entrenched positions on both sides may stall or even derail the process. Recent developments appear favorable for the reopening of the Strait, which is likely to trigger a notable shift in market positioning next week. 1. Direct Impact on Crude Oil There is l