Last week and earlier, we said it was important to compare how gold and silver behave near their historical highs. With the rebound continuing, this week may bring a potential shift in relative strength, creating some trading opportunities. The core logic remains that the market needs to reverse the “silver strong, gold weak” setup; only after that would a potential medium-to-long-term top have a chance to form. If a breakout to fresh highs proves effective, the primary stance remains bullish.At Monday’s open, gold already printed a new all-time high, which clearly satisfies the first condition. There is also a hidden factor in that condition: the magnitude of the new high needs to be relatively limited; if the highs are persistent and clearly expanding, it suggests the market may continue

Scarcely had the Venezuela episode quietened than America began casting around for ways to rattle Iran—a sign that Donald Trump is unlikely to lie low before the 2026 midterms. With voters demanding lower inflation and reliable energy supplies, he must be seen to deliver on those pledges. For Mr Trump, the midterms matter more than most.With both chambers of Congress in Republican hands, Mr Trump’s legislative agenda can glide through with little more than a nod from Capitol Hill. But if the midterms strip his party of either the Senate or the House, his second term will soon resemble his first: gridlocked, frustrated, and reduced to bargaining endlessly with Democrats just to get anything done—a president in name only.The consequences of striking Iran?If America follows through, markets w

At the start of the new year, the drama keeps coming. Over the weekend, the United States launched an operation, directly apprehending Venezuela’s president and bringing him to the U.S. for trial; the speed of the action and the precision of the intelligence once again demonstrated America’s military capabilities. Although there are rumors that the operation went so smoothly because there was an insider, being able to secure an insider is itself a reflection of military strength. Since the incident both occurred and concluded over the weekend (many recent military operations share this style: short duration, clear objectives, and no sustained escalation in responses from either side), for financial markets it would likely be digested within the few hours from Monday’s open through the Asia

The biggest holiday topic is America's move against Maduro, with most analyses covering directly affected assets. This piece focuses on the hidden agenda: dollar dominance.​Common views hold that the US (under Trump) seeks Venezuela's rich oil and commodity resources. Compared to the 1980s oil wars' brute force, today's tactics lack "martial virtue" but prove more effective.​Yet, as ancient wisdom states, subduing the enemy without fighting is the ultimate strategy—direct intervention signals a loss of control.​(Dollar index performance over the past 60 years)​Latin America's Dollar DependenceFor decades, South America and even Canada's North America have fallen fully under US influence. Through debt and the dollar—the two financial weapons—Latin countries have played the role of beasts of

As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

Silver experienced a significant drop last night. The sell-off erupted just after the CME raised margin requirements for silver futures. This move by the world's largest exchange by trading volume seems like an official endorsement of the view that "silver is currently overbought." Following the sudden liquidity tightening, silver futures fell over 10 points, causing a minor pullback in the US stock market's Christmas rally. Many are concerned: Is the uptrend in silver over? How likely is a continued sharp decline? Could it end the US stock market's Christmas rally as well?In fact, we warned about a potential silver drop in our previous analysis. I specifically highlighted the importance of the 5-day moving average for the main continuous silver futures contract. Theoretically, a short squ

After the policy outcomes from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan were released, the market’s largest near-term risk window has largely passed.​Based on how price action has responded so far, the Santa rally has very likely begun; historically, it typically runs from late December into early January, and U.S. equities have a high probability of grinding higher with choppy gains during this period.​What’s more, while mega-cap tech looks expensive, the overall valuation of the equal-weight S&P 500 is not particularly stretched, so over the coming week it may be worth considering a strategy of selling weekly put options on Nasdaq futures with strikes below the 20-week moving average.​At the same time, it also makes sense to prepare in advance for a potential explosive move in commo

The U.S. stock market saw a pullback, and while a decline in equity indices is entirely normal, an intraday headline made the move particularly noteworthy. Markets had largely assumed the next Federal Reserve Chair would be White House chief economic adviser Kevin Hassett. However, last Friday (local time), President Trump said that as he considers a successor to Powell, he is leaning toward “two Kevins”—Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. Although Hassett has been viewed as the front-runner, Trump noted that after a 45-minute White House meeting with Warsh on Wednesday, Warsh has also entered his top tier of preferred candidates. That news contributed to a pullback in U.S. equity indices, suggesting that markets view Warsh as a relatively hawkish option whose comments may be amplified further,

Be cautious: this week, both U.S. equities and the two most crowded assets—gold and silver—are sitting in a fragile equilibrium of “high prices + low volatility + high leverage.” On top of that, the headline calendar includes Quadruple witching day, a Bank of Japan rate hike, and the return of the previously paused U.S. nonfarm payrolls release—factors that make a meaningful volatility expansion highly likely. In such an environment, any one-way bet can easily be whipsawed as take-profit and stop-loss orders get triggered repeatedly.​In these conditions—especially before the Bank of Japan announces its policy decision—the priority should shift away from trying to be “right” on a single directional call. The focus should be on protecting earlier gains and controlling drawdowns, because the

@KevinChenNYC Kevin Chen holds a PhD from the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, and launched his Wall Street career at Morgan Stanley, where he absorbed the analytical rigor of macroeconomic legends Byron Wien and Steven Roach. He maintains strong academic ties as a graduate-level instructor at New York University and marks 2026 as his tenth annual installment of top-10 global economic predictions. His 2025 forecast track record stands at 85% accuracy.2025 Forecast Track Record: 8 of 10 predictions correct (85% hit rate).Chen‘s standout call was forecasting a Q2 US stock correction—markets entered a bear market in April-May, with the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ plunging over 30%. Other accurate foreca

The year 2025, which is drawing to a close, saw many unexpected changes in the global financial markets. For example, $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ surged, European stock markets outperformed US stocks, and cryptocurrencies like $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ experienced significant declines.2025 was also the year I spent the most time investing and researching in global markets. My travels included the UAE, Iraq, and India, and I conducted numerous investment sharing events in Canada and Italy. Within the US, I had the opportunity to attend training at Elon Musk's Starbase and the NASA Space Academy at the Marshall Space Center in Alabama.Many of the companies we've partnered with are listed on the New Yor

$Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ $1-Ounce Gold - main 2602(1OZmain)$ 🧠📈 When structure, liquidity, and institutional flow align, markets do not whisper. They move! I'm looking at the precious metals complex the same way I always do, 🔍 price first, 📐 structure second, 💰 positioning always. Gold and silver are not rallying on narrative. They are responding to incentives, liquidity and time. 🟡 Gold futures continue to hold around the $4,330 region, forming what is effectively a structural fortress on the weekly chart. Price remains above rising trend support, with every pullback absorbed rather than rejected. That is not exhaustio

As possibly the most critical week toward year-end, the Fed’s 25‑basis‑point rate cut this week is already common knowledge. This means the market now needs new information to trigger meaningful volatility. Some believe Chair Powell may announce a bond‑buying program, while others expect a highly dovish outlook at the press conference. However, given that Powell is set to step down in May next year, doing nothing may actually be the best option.​From recent market behavior, even though monetary policy no longer dominates as it once did, investors still generally accept the logic that rate cuts equal easier financial conditions, which in turn are positive for markets. Following this line of reasoning, announcing Treasury purchases or signaling a more dovish path for next year would both be

Many people may not yet have noticed that the current market is showing a very intriguing and seemingly contradictory pattern. On one hand, bond market pricing suggests that investors do not believe the Federal Reserve, even after its leadership change, can smoothly and quickly transition into a clearly dovish policy environment. On the other hand, silver prices have hit fresh highs even without any visible squeeze caused by tightness in the physical inventory. The gold–silver ratio has undergone a technical collapse, which implies that market bets on future inflation remain elevated, and silver is very likely front-running a new upcycle in broader commodities.​国内现货白银市场的基差持续走弱，但美白银仍然持续逼空上涨In Chinese physical silver market, the basis has continued to weaken, yet U.S. silver prices are still

Core Conclusion: After the Gold-Silver Ratio broke above 105 in April 2025, it rapidly retreated. The current level of 68 remains above the historical average of 58. Looking at history and reviewing the patterns from the past four "above 100" episodes, silver may still have several months of gains ahead from December 2025 through mid-year 2026. $Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ 's pace and magnitude of gains are expected to exceed $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ 's rise. Time to seize more allocation? $Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ $E-mini Silver - main 2603(QImain)$ has gained 64% since breaking to new highs since J

A significant market movement for gold and silver is anticipated leading up to the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year. The market widely expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, with some even forecasting another cut in January. However, with the market having already priced in the likely successor to the Fed chair, this meeting is drawing less attention than usual. The primary source of uncertainty may lie in the differing opinions among the voting members. In the near future, the market is likely to focus more on the statements of the "shadow" Fed chair to predict the future path of rate cuts, potentially making the market less sensitive to Fed meetings until the leadership transition is complete.​Gold Awaits a Clearer Path for Rate CutsDespite strong expectations for