First of all, I own $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and am a stakeholder.Discussion is for personal opinion only.
Tesla has been on an upward trajectory since Trump's election victory, and this rally has nothing to do with fundamentals (since it's not earnings season either), but rather the "realization" of a previously suppressed market.
As I said before, Tesla is waiting for an opportunity?--An opportunity to cash in on Trump's rise to power.
Now that he's cashed in, Elon Musk has taken it a step further by taking on a key government position - the "DOGE", or Department of Organization of the United States.This important official position of personnel appointment and dismissal is actually very important.
But it's also very easy to offend!
That's not necessarily a good thing for Tesla shareholders.
I. Musk-Trump Relationship's Sharp Heat-Up and Potential Rift
Musk and Trump's relationship is clearly warming.However, this "honeymoon period" has brought unexpected tensions, making some people who entered Trump's circle earlier dissatisfied with Musk's high-profile attitude, and even erupted into a heated argument over the issue of government cabinet appointments.
Some of the traditional interests in the new administration's cabinet appointments have resisted Musk's assertive style, which could ultimately lead to a breakdown in relations.Musk has even been described as - "almost a comical interloper, hanging out at the Haywood Estate, slipping into high-level transition meetings, and going 'uninvited' to Trump's personnel decisions"
Second, the impact of radical "interference" behavior
Musk's high-profile involvement in political issues has made him both a star in the Trump camp and a center of controversy.
Risk to personal image: Musk's behavior has been interpreted by outsiders as "interference in politics," which could transform him from a technological innovator to a political controversial figure, threatening his public credibility.
Impact on the Trump administration: Musk's push for an agenda could exacerbate conflicts within the Trump administration, making it difficult to harmonize policy agendas.In addition, the confrontation between traditional energy supporters and new energy advocates may expose the administration to a more complex game of interests
Third, the potential impact of Musk's changing relationship with the Trump team on Tesla
Polarization of brand image: Musk's political stance could lead to a split in Tesla's customer base.A portion of Trump-supporting consumers may be more supportive of Tesla, while another portion may choose to boycott Tesla products because they resent Musk's political involvement.Of course, the impact of this segment is not the most significant.
International market challenges: if Trump returns to power and strengthens his protectionist policies, Tesla may face greater resistance in overseas markets, which will have an impact on the company's future growth.
Changes in investor expectations: investors who previously shied away from entering Tesla for fear of the Trump administration's protectionist policies were relieved to see Musk's close relationship with the Trump team.But if Musk and trump team relationship re deteriorate, or Musk can't organize Trump's protectionist policies hurt Tesla, then this part of the money may "from where to go back to where to go"
IV. History Lesson: The Fate of Business Leaders Close to Trump
Trump has had short-lived partnerships with several influential business leaders in the past, such as Apple CEO Tim Cook and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, but they all fell apart due to policy differences or conflicts of interest.
Anthony Scaramucci, a former Trump confidant and prominent investor, was fired just 10 days after becoming White House press secretary in 2017.
And Musk's aggressive style and Trump's uncertainty make it likely that the relationship will repeat itself.
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