NVIDIA's trend over the next two weeks might be better than expected, although the original expectations weren't bad either.
Monday's options opening position list shows that bullish options top positions significantly outweigh bearish ones, indicating the market tends to bet on the near-term trend using call options.
Call options are being heavily accumulated across strike price sequences, which typically triggers stock price increases. However, transaction details show scattered trades with more selling than buying orders, clearly not institutional accumulation.
Possibly due to no signs of market correction and NVIDIA's reasonable stock price, the market expects the price won't exceed certain levels. Overall, Monday showed no signs of shorting, increasing the probability of institutional 141 sell call failure this week.
The largest mid-term put option opening position on Monday, $NVDA 20241220 120.0 PUT$ , was mainly sold, suggesting expectations that the price won't fall below 120 before December 20, consistent with previous predictions.
This week will likely close above 135, though it's uncertain whether it will stay below 141.
Tesla shows similar bullish sentiment, likely to close above 330 this week, theoretically below 360, but with potential for breakthrough.
Chinese Stocks
Besides the previously posted $CHAU 20250516 15.0 CALL$ with 204,000 new contract openings
Additional positions:
$YINN 20260116 27.0 CALL$ new buy opening of 38,000 contracts
$YINN 20260116 40.0 CALL$ new opening of 5,000 contracts
$FXI 20260116 30.0 CALL$ new buy opening of 15,000 contracts
$PDD 20241213 90.0 PUT$ sell put new opening of 17,000 contracts
While theoretically not the best entry point, major investors might care less about the potential pullback space and more about getting in.
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$
Monday's opening positions show bullish openings not weaker than bearish ones, but the top two bearish positions were floor trades.
As shown, two single-leg buy orders, both put options 20 and 22 were floor trades:
However, the transaction amount is slightly lower, leaning towards earnings speculation, suggesting some institutional players don't trust the company's statement and are betting on potential future problems.
February expiration 50 call option $SMCI 20250221 50.0 CALL$ is mainly seller-dominated.
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