$SPY$The biggest uncertainty before year-end is whether the market will pull back to 650. SPY put activity shows various strategies hedging for this scenario, e.g., buy $SPY 20251231 680.0 PUT$  sell $SPY 20251231 650.0 PUT$ .$NVDA$Next week is still expected to trade between $170–190, with potentially higher volatility than this week. For a straightforward approach, consider selling the 200 call $NVDA 20251219 200.0 CALL$ , or even a January expiry.Put activity also reflects significant uncertainty ahead of Christmas, which makes sense—if the stock can’t rally, it will likely move lower

$GOOGL$The broader market is likely to continue its rebound today, with SPY potentially reaching 688. However, not every stock will ride this wave—sector rotation is evident as year-end approaches.The rotation has turned against Google this time. Bears opened a position by buying 10,000 contracts of the Jan 9th 315 Put $GOOGL 20260109 315.0 PUT$ , with a total premium of approximately $12 million.Overall, excluding this put activity, Google's options flow still appears strong, suggesting a likely trading range between $315–325. However, following this significant bearish bet, while the stock may hold above $315 this week, the outlook beyond next week becomes less certain.$NVDA$Maintaining the view of a $180–185 trading r

$NVDA$Following Trump's hints about the Fed chair nominee last night, the market gapped up then sold off, printing a bearish upper wick. Interestingly, a significant number of puts were closed, including 28k contracts of this week's 165 put $NVDA 20251205 165.0 PUT$ , signaling shorts are backing off from an immediate assault.Notably, bearish news like OpenAI pausing ads to accelerate new models and Amazon's chip development challenging NVIDIA had little impact.The likely closing range for this week now looks like $180–185.$SPY$The immediate risk of a sharp drop to 650 has diminished. However, a pullback to 670 is still possible. Overall, the bias remains toward retesting the previous high around 689.$AAPL$Apple is leadin

$NVDA$Selling calls into strength remains suitable for the current setup, with strikes preferably above 190.Based on Monday's options flow, the probability of a pullback to 160 within the next month is quite high. The Dec 5th 165 put $NVDA 20251205 165.0 PUT$  saw 41k contracts opened. The overall delta was positive, indicating seller dominance, but such heavy open interest also creates downward pressure.A retest of 170 is possible this week. If considering selling puts, it's advisable to add a protective put leg or wait for an actual pullback before entering.Looking at the broader open interest, it will likely be difficult for NVDA to break above 200 before the Jan 16 monthly expiration. The two calls with the highest op

$SPY$The whole of December gives off a "just getting by" vibe. It might not necessarily drop, but it certainly feels hard to rally.Based on SPY opening flow, the market will likely continue to churn higher into this week's FOMC, oscillating between 675 and 690.The top opening by volume was a complex bearish order: selling the Feb '27 719 call $SPY 20260227 719.0 CALL$ , buying the Feb '27 647 put $SPY 20260227 647.0 PUT$ , and selling the Feb '27 545 put $SPY 20260227 545.0 PUT$ .On the surface, it bets on SPY potentially falling below 647 by late February. However, the net cost of this c

$NVDA$This week's closing range: $170–185. Expected range for next week is similar, oscillating between $160–190.Institutions continue selling the 185 call $NVDA 20251205 190.0 CALL$  as a hedge, making a significant breakout above this level difficult.The 160 put $NVDA 20251205 160.0 PUT$  saw 29k contracts opened with unclear direction, indicating support expectations are shifting lower. Additionally, heavy put opening for next week's expiry suggests strong pullback expectations, potentially creating a volatility selling opportunity. Consider short-dated sell puts if that materializes.$SPY$Closed above 680 on Friday. Likely tests 690 next week before

Brief update given the holiday-thinned trading schedule.This market squeeze is a rebound, not a trend reversal. Two unusual moves caught my attention:Tesla's long call position $TSLA 20260220 440.0 CALL$  was closed. This is the same position that was just rolled on Friday. Closing it just one day later is highly unusual. This likely indicates strong expectations for an impending pullback, prompting an early risk-off move.Google's options flow shifted defensive. The top open interest calls are being closed, while put opening is active. For example, 21k contracts of the Dec 19th 310 Put $GOOGL 20251219 310.0 PUT$  were opened as buys. This clearly shows

$SPY$Quick take: It's Thanksgiving week—closed Thursday, half-day Friday. Expect the selling to pause this week, with SPY finishing above its 5-day MA. But the trend hasn't reversed. Next week still looks bearish—shorts are already positioned, targeting 635.$NVDA$Same logic applies to NVDA. It'll likely hold above $165 this week, but $160 is on the menu for next week. Even though the Dec 5th 160 put is a sell, the overall open interest tells us the expected price level has shifted lower.The strategy for NVDA remains selling calls on rallies and positioning short into strength. "Strength" here means any approach toward near-term resistance or high open interest strike zones.$AMD$AMD looks done around $180 for now. Same story—watch for a pullback next week.$META$Showing some signs of basing.

$SPY$In short, tonight we'll either see a massive rally or a sharp selloff. And frankly, we might even get both within the same session.If we do bounce, consider selling calls if it reaches 670 or 675.Downside targets now point directly to 630 $SPY 20251128 630.0 PUT$ , possibly even 620. That's right – last week's 640-650 low expectations have been revised downward. Can't help it – the weekend option flow is all over these levels. Plans change; look at the bright side, a bigger dip means a better buying opportunity.Generally, I don't recommend buying weekly options, but this week the odds might justify a couple of lottery tickets. Note: the probability of a plunge has increased, not that it's guaranteed.Weekly options are

$NVDA$New bearish narratives are gradually gaining traction.Narrative A: An analyst claims that the circular financing within the AI supply chain resembles a Ponzi scheme and constitutes fraudulent activity.Narrative B: Another analyst refutes the "Ponzi scheme" claim as nonsense, arguing that stock volatility and financial data reflect normal valuation adjustments and standard industry practices. However, this narrative introduces a new bearish element: the $500 billion in orders through 2026 – does this represent genuine computing demand or overbuilding of infrastructure?Frankly, Narrative B might be more damaging. Orders from overbuilding can "evaporate," potentially triggering a bubble burst. Cisco faced a similar situation back in 2000 – the stock chart tells the story.For now, mainta

$NVDA$Theoretically, this was a very strong earnings report, with FY2026 EPS projections at $9. A stock price reaching $200 would be reasonable, and last Wednesday's option openings indeed saw bets placed right at that $200 threshold:For instance, single-leg, near-expiration call buys at 200 $NVDA 20251128 200.0 CALL$ , 190 $NVDA 20251128 190.0 CALL$ , and even in-the-money at 170 $NVDA 20251128 170.0 CALL$ .More aggressive traders opted for call spreads, like the 205–235 $NVDA 20251219 205.0 CALL$ 

$NVDA$NVIDIA's earnings are solid and definitely beat expectations, but whether the stock will rally is another story.Compared to Monday, Tuesday's opening positions were more extreme on both long and short sides, likely because the break below $180 prompted some to bet on a rebound while others continued to short.Overall, even the bulls are leaning cautious. Although bullish openings like the 170 $NVDA 20251128 170.0 CALL$  are mostly buy-driven, this deep in-the-money call activity doesn’t necessarily signal a strengthening trend.There are some single-leg, near-expiration longs like the $NVDA 20251121 205.0 CALL$ , but overall it looks difficult to b

$VIX$The broader market is pulling back as expected, with new short positions continuously joining the sell-off. For instance, on Monday, the VIX February 2026 24 call $VIX 20260218 24.0 CALL$  saw 52,000 contracts traded, indicating a bullish directional bet.You can add this to your watchlist—once this position starts unwinding, it might be a good time to consider establishing long positions.$SPY$Monday’s options flow showed concentrated opening of out-of-the-money puts at the 630 strike, significantly raising the likelihood of a pullback toward 640.$SPY 20251219 632.0 PUT$  $SPY 20251120 635.0 PU

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ NVIDIA reports earnings this week. Analyst reports give favorable expectations, and the valuation looks attractive, but the options opening activity is extremely poor.Long-time followers of my articles should find this put opening activity familiar. It's the same pattern we saw during the sharp plunge in March and April this year, where cliff-like strike prices topped the opening rankings.Unlike Tesla, NVIDIA rarely sees extreme, lottery-ticket style shorting openings due to its stable valuation. When such openings do appear, it generally signals that risk appetite is likely increasing, and the overall market is tilting towards a risk-off stance, which could correspond with a sharp spike in the VIX.Put openings can roughly be divide

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ At the start of the week, many large bearish orders were observed targeting around 650, and newly opened large bearish orders yesterday also support this view. If it drops near 650, follow if large orders start buying the dip.The primary bearish spread opened is: Buy 660put $SPY 20251231 660.0 PUT$ , Sell 635put $SPY 20251231 635.0 PUT$ , targeting SPY falling below 660 but above 635 by year-end.There's disagreement around 640. Bearish orders include buying the 639put $SPY 20251219 639.0 PUT$ . Bullish orders inclu

Reports today indicate that Michael Burry, "The Big Short," deregistered his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, earlier this week. Before deregistration, the fund's assets under management reached $155 million.He also clarified what his short positions consisted of: 50,000 contracts of $PLTR 20270115 50.0 PUT$  and 10,000 contracts of $NVDA 20271217 110.0 PUT$ .In theory, after deregistering a hedge fund, capital is returned to investors, and short positions should be closed. The open interest data seems to confirm this.Looking at the PLTR open interest leaderboard, the $PLTR 20270115 50.0 PUT$&n

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The logic of upward resistance continues, with more institutions joining the ranks of those lowering expectations.It's not that AI is truly failing, but the current bearish sentiment suits Wall Street's intention to shake out weak hands – a flush-out for a healthier market.At this stage, it's unclear what December holds, but the November rally seems unlikely to materialize.Notable NVDA long call roll: The Nov 21st 205 call $NVDA 20251121 205.0 CALL$  was rolled to the Jan 16th 195 call $NVDA 20260116 195.0 CALL$ , opening 34k contracts.Why is this notable? Long calls are typically rolled once a

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ We're back in a macro pressure phase. Unsurprisingly, after the US government reopens, it will have to face a bunch of dismal employment and inflation data.Theoretically, NVIDIA should be the easiest stock to navigate in the current phase, but a bearish Sword of Damocles hangs over its head.Michael Burry plans to release more details about the overvaluation of AI-related companies on November 25th, timed after NVIDIA's earnings report, aiming to combine with weak macro data to deliver another blow to the market.However, the systemic willingness to short NVIDIA isn't very strong at the moment. The top ranked bearish opening trade is a halving/slash large short block $NVDA 20

A violent rebound on Friday, followed by a sharp short-squeeze surge on Monday – last week's series of coincidences led to a pullback.However, institutions aren't viewing this pullback very positively. Significant sell call block trades have emerged for some stocks, with expiration dates at year-end. The strike prices suggest high volatility is expected from now until year-end:$AAPL 20251219 305.0 CALL$ $SPY 20260116 700.0 CALL$ $C 20251219 115.0 CALL$ $GOOGL 20251219 335.0 CALL$ 

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Gotta say, Michael Burry's timing for this short is actually somewhat impressive. He specifically filed two weeks early to hit this exact window – he's got both timing and conditions on his side. This was also discussed in previous articles.Barring any surprises, the current pullback is expected to reach the previous low around 650, with a smaller probability of hitting 640. This drop would be enough for him to break even, but turning a profit might still be tough.On Thursday, someone opened 17,000 contracts of the 650 put expiring on the 12th $SPY 20251112 650.0 PUT$ . Half of this position was closed around 9:43 AM ET today (Friday), already full