Cutting straight to the chase, let's look at the top closing trades today:$GME 20240517 12 CALL$  -20,263 lots$GME 20240517 11 CALL$  -11,588 lots$GME 20240517 15 CALL$  -6,295 lotsYes, that's right - the suspected market maker positions I highlighted in my first post, those weekly 11 and 12 strikes, were closed out today. We can declare this week's upside ambitions officially over, and the field has been ceded to the bears.Looking at put open interest, strikes are concentrated heavily below $20. This needs to be viewed in context with the remaining call OI:Based on the current call OI distribut

The time to sell puts has arrived. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ caught me off guard. I saw the stock price take off yesterday and thought it was just Dell carrying it higher, not a big deal. Today someone reminded me NVDA has earnings next week - I had the report date wrongly marked as the 31st. Time to sell some at-the-money options to take a breather, like the $NVDA 20240524 950 PUT$ . The $NVDL 20240524 43 PUT$  is also an option.Not sure if it rallies through earnings, but the run-up into the print is likely underway, along with other semis like AMD, SMCI, TSM etc. Strategies can include buying stock or selling puts. Not

tl;dr: There are signs of long capitulation in GME options this week.News segment first: The Bond King Bill Gross loudly proclaimed that the best trade in GME right now is to short the 400% option implied volatility.According to Bloomberg, Gross's strategy was to sell GME option straddles, simultaneously selling the 40 strike calls and puts. If GME closes between $18-62 on Friday, Gross profits, with max gain of $2,200 if it closes right at $40. The report noted Gross employed a similar straddlesell in AMC, selling the 10 strike straddle.While the news details sound plausible, I couldn't find any direct confirmation from Gross himself on these specific trades. He only mentioned shorting volatility in general, not for any particular underlier. Moreover, my scans showed the largest GME 40 st

GameStop (GME)On Monday, GME options ranked #9 in total trading volume across all stocks/ETFs with 689k contracts traded, up 74%. Notably, while call open interest grew just 8.4%, put OI spiked 84.3%!The trading data suggests Monday's premarket pop was driven by the underlying stock, as call options traded very cautiously - clearly failing to meet market makers' expectations. While put volume surged, there wasn't major initiation from a strike perspective.Top 3 calls opened:$GME 20240517 34 CALL$  +17,397$GME 20240621 40 CALL$  +4,727$GME 20240524 34 CALL$  +3,379While new strikes aren't capture

Missed the GME frenzy? No need to panic, there are plenty of stable money-making opportunities this week.Despite being monthly options expiration, the overall tech market is exhibiting the same lackluster choppy action as last week - presenting excellent opportunities to sell puts or covered calls. Why not harvest some premium during these rangebound periods?Of course, some may want to go all-in on meme stocks like GME and AMC. No issues there - at this pivotal juncture, any risk warnings pale in comparison to the potential upside. I'll provide an update on GME and AMC option positioning in the next post.Nvidia (NVDA)Nvidia is likely to remain rangebound between $850-920 this week. Consider selling the $NVDA 20240517 850 PUT$ <

TL;DR: The GME ringleader is exploiting the monthly options expiration again to engineer a gamma squeeze. Bullish this week, bearish next week.On Monday premarket, GME spiked 40% higher, and Roaring Kitty, the instigator of GME's 2021 frenzy, resurfaced after 3 years with a meme acknowledging the surge - signaling GME's meme frenzy may be back.GME's 2021 insane rally began with a 57% spike on 1/13. The following week, it opened at $24.18 on Monday 1/25 but had run to $120.75 by that Thursday's close.However, on the ensuing Monday 2/1, GME crashed 30% before the frenzy reignited about a month later.Interestingly, this week's $25 premarket level rhymes with that $24.18 open on 1/25.The Squeeze ScriptExpect this week's script to mirror last time - a combo of expiring options gamma and short c

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ The trader who sold the 185 calls last week has rolled their position to next week's expiration, continuing to sell calls. Can you guess which strike they sold? $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ In my article on Monday, I mentioned the broad market would likely trade sideways these two weeks into 5/17 expiration. But after 5/17, we have Nvidia's earnings. The semiconductor sector has been rangebound near-term but with upside expectations further out. I noticed a trade in SOXL a couple days ago that aligns with this view:Sell $SOXL 20240517 47.0 CALL$ Buy

tldr: Watch the Tesla bears perform the Dunkirk retreat. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ To analyze Nvidia's trend, we must first look at $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ . ARM will report earnings after the close on Wednesday. As is well known, one chipmaker's earnings can impact the entire semiconductor sector and even the broader market. If ARM surges, Nvidia will surge. And if Nvidia rises, the market will rise.Based on current large option positions, the market is extremely bullish on ARM's earnings, with far-dated 155 calls ($ARM 20240621 155.0 CALL$ ) even seeing activity.If ARM is expected to rally, then Nvidia and the market should rally too, right?T

Title inspired by yesterday's option flow $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Nvidia surged 3.77% on Monday, with options flow tilted towards calls. The most active call strikes this week are 950 and 920, while 850 saw the highest put volume. This disjointed strike activity is normal - market sentiment doesn't sequentially buy 925, 930, 935 etc., but instead concentrates on a further out-of-the-money strike for higher leverage. This makes the continuous call strikes seen the week of April 19th seem abnormal, reinforcing the belief it was an intentional bearish play.While the market leans bullish, breaking 920 still has difficulty. One can continue accumulating the stock on dips, as it's likely to see upside volatility ahead of earnings. However, upside volatility

In summary: From May 6th to May 17th, the market will overall experience range-bound consolidation. For option buyers with medium-term positions (expiring in 3 months), it is recommended to roll them over for an additional month to combat time decay. For short-term positions, day-trading is advised. Option sellers will have a relatively comfortable time, with short positions in either calls or puts likely to be profitable during this period. The price action on May 17th will probably continue the sideways consolidation, unable to replicate the strength seen on April 19th. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ The key resistance levels for Nvidia this week are $900 and $920 ($NVDA 20240510 920.0 CALL$ 

TLDR: Tesla has a high probability of trading around $190 this week. If there is a significant deviation on Thursday or Friday, it may be worth considering buying options to speculate on a potential squeeze. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ surged 15% on Monday, which should theoretically indicate bullish market sentiment. However, after battling market makers for so long, the first thing I checked was the open interest data for put options. As expected, the open interest for puts with strike prices between $195 and $185 saw a substantial increase.On the call side, the strikes with the largest increase in open interest were mainly above $200. But the $190 to $200 strike range already had significant open interest. Therefore, this week's Tesla price action is

This article mainly includes three parts: the mystery behind Nvidia's surge on Friday, the position adjustment of institutional big orders after earnings reports, and the prediction for the market in the first week of May.Market Review: $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Let me admit a mistake first. I said last Friday that Nvidia would likely close between $800 and $840, but it actually surged to close at $879. What happened?Because I didn't confirm the changes in option positions on Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, when Nvidia's stock price fell below $800 on Wednesday, the open interest for the $840 and $850 call options increased by 14,000 and 11,000 contracts respectively.So on Friday, with the perfect timing, market conditions and bullish sentiment, the st

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ - I sold META puts a couple days ago. Although I believe META can rebound in the future, the capital used to take on those put positions will likely be tied up for at least 3 months. As someone who tries to unite theory and practice, I didn't really feel like talking much tonight and wanted to remain quiet.Despite lacking energy, I still need to maintain daily observations. An interesting question arises - after an earnings release, will market makers start killing off option positions?Call options will undoubtedly get crushed. For META's put options this week, the 450, 470, 440, 400, 480 strikes have the highest open interest. Looking at the intraday movements, although market makers can't control everything, they sti

In summary: Tesla's stock price is likely to settle around $160 this week, but there is a small probability of a gamma squeeze on call options, pushing the price up to $170.After its earnings report, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ rebounded 11%, essentially just recouping last week's losses. Apart from "killing" the shorts, there seems to be no other substantial impact - it was just noise.The short-sellers were hit hard, with the effect being significant. The top 9 out-of-the-money put options expiring this week were essentially all buried, expiring worthless. Listed from low to high strike prices, the put options with open interest above 10,000 contracts had strikes at: 150, 140, 130, 135, 75, 120, 100, 145, 125, 160, 115, 155, 110, and 90.The distribution

Impacted by last week's plunge, tech earnings this week, even with robust numbers, may not see significant rallies and could potentially decline further. As a result, large options orders for tech stocks appear to have turned quite conservative, with institutions starting to employ in-the-money option combinations to reduce costs and control risks. This reflects the market's skepticism about the sustainability of the current market rebound. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ I believe META will remain the strongest performer this earnings season due to its monopolistic advantages. However, expectations should not be set too high, as the previous sell-off has made $525 a minor resistance level, making a repeat of last quarter's 20% surge unrealistic. No

After examining Friday's new options positions, I feel there's no need to wait until Monday's market close. I can assert that this week, the battle for NVIDIA's stock price will revolve around the $800 level.Specifically, I'm optimistic that NVIDIA will be able to maintain a price above $800 this week, although upside may be capped around the $840 level.Let me first share the overall picture of NVIDIA's options. Although some might regret missing last week's plunge, there's no need to worry, as the next major options expiration event is on May 17th, when the monthly options for May expire, with a significant number of open interest contracts. However, the specific dynamics will depend on the price movement preferences in May, for which I'll conduct a thorough analysis as we approach that d

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ failed to withstand the squeeze pressure and plunged towards $800. The overall market had a significant number of options expiring on April 19th, with a heavy tilt towards puts, creating a resonance effect. As my friend said, it seems like we have an "option expiration day" every month now.Despite our thorough analysis this week, our optimism was a bit excessive. However, the silver lining is that after experiencing this minor squeeze, we'll be more cautious when we encounter similar option expiration setups in the future.Although NVIDIA's stock price took a substantial hit, there's some good news. After this Friday, the massive number of put options expiring on April 19th will be cleared, leading to a cliff-like decrease in NV

$NVIDIA (NVDA)$ The TSMC earnings report is crucial, and NVIDIA's stock price trajectory this week largely hinges on TSMC's performance. If TSMC's earnings are favorable, NVIDIA's stock price is likely to close above $850 on Friday. Conversely, if TSMC's earnings disappoint, NVIDIA's stock could slide to around $800. After all, this week's outstanding put options for NVIDIA are heavily concentrated at the lower strike prices of $800, $850, $820, $840, and $830.As a steadfast bull, I anticipate that TSMC's earnings will boost NVIDIA, allowing it to maintain a level above $850 this week. However, a dip to $800 is also within expectations, potentially triggering a squeeze. A squeeze, similar to GameStop (GME) being driven to $800, refers to a short-c

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ - The Nvidia options market is expected to replay last week's battle, with market makers continuing to pressure both calls and puts. The 900 calls ($NVDA 20240419 900 CALL$ ) and 850/800 puts ($NVDA 20240419 850 PUT$ , $NVDA 20240419 800 PUT$ ) remain the targets to be crushed. So after taking out the 900 calls on Monday, the next 4 days will be a defense of 850. Holding 850 could allow for a minor bounce, but failing to defend it will likely trigger a squeeze down towards 800. The trading mindset remains similar to last week:Eit