$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$  

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ Bullish

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Will generally discuss the issues surrounding SMCI.

The CURRENT price accounts for the inherent risk NOW. SMCI is cheap because of some unresolved issues.

Justice department investigation

Not worried. It will at most end with a fine and settlement. And it will be good news.

Delisting from Nasdaq?

Any news attributing the drop in share price after SMCI filed it's compliance plan is inaccurate. Nasdaq should approve the plan if it displayed a pathway to compliance. Nasdaq should have a decision within 45 days of compliance plan filing. SMCI would be given 180 days to comply. Enough time to get reports in order. So, we can discuss delisting possibility but in the final 45 days. Worry later.

BDO not reputable?

BDO is not a Big 4 firm. Not the same league as Big 4. Big 4 firms are premier but it is myopic to only highlight BDO's past infractions without mentioning the many Big 4's infractions. Big 4 firms do have better reputation and SMCI would likely switch to one in the future. Nonetheless, management had drawn its defense lines.

1. No fraud.

2. Likely no restatement of financial reports.

They will subject themselves to lawsuits if found to be untruthful. The convertible bond holders could rescind and that would be disastrous. And it is precisely that the 2 declarations reduced the fear of the rescission of the convertible bond holders.

Whistle blower lawsuit

Merited or unmerited, It will be resolved without much impact.

Hindenberg report

Personally, I feel aggressive accounting and connected parties transactions do exist. Declared ones would just be business as usual with declaration and arm's length transactions. Undeclared ones, fines and settlement. Not worried. The report is sketchy.

So what's there to really worry?

If there is fraud! Convertible bonds rescission follows. Disaster.

If BDO resigns, another disaster! I feel management would rather reinstated accounts accordingly to BDO then to let BDO resign.

Convertible bonds holders sue for misrepresentation or fraud. This would impact even if SMCI could defend. It is noteworthy that convertible bond holders earned some premium from their holdings and the high expectations of $134 conversion price by 2029. SMCI had declared a no fraud finding by an independent reviiew panel. This is their strategic defense.

Going forward...

I expect the next few quarters to show low, subdued double digit revenue growth. I personally feel that past overly aggressive accounting loss of revenue to Dell etc led to a downward revision of the next quarter's revenue.

$0.69 GAAP EPS Q4 2024

$0.53 estimated GAAP EPS Q1 2025

Margin compression is an issue. Q1 2025 EPS reflects that.

At $42, PE is 19.8 using next quarter's projected EPS. Not exactly cheap. At $20, dirt cheap. Nonetheless, SMCI is in a high growth industry. Dell's AI servers generated $3.6b of orders in Q3 2024; 5 quarters pipeline increased 50%. SMCI's EPS could potentially grow significantly in the following quarters. That's the expectation of the convertible bond buyers with the $134 conversion price. 

Management needs to shake up and deliver. S&P500 crowning achievement at stake. I am sure they are trying hard.

[Translated to Mandarin using Google Translate (without proof reading). Beware of inaccuracies. 使用谷歌翻译翻译成普通话（无需校对）。注意不准确之处。]

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ 看涨

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通常会讨论围绕 SMCI 的问题。

当前价格考虑了现在的固有风险。SMCI 之所以便宜，是因为一些未解决的问题。

司法部调查

不用担心。最多会以罚款和和解结束。这将是个好消息。

从纳斯达克退市？

任何将 SMCI 提交合规计划后股价下跌归因于其的消息都是不准确的。如果该计划显示出合规途径，纳斯达克应该批准该计划。纳斯达克应该在合规计划提交后的 45 天内做出决定。SMCI 将有 180 天的时间来遵守。有足够的时间来整理报告。 所以，我们可以讨论退市的可能性，但要等到最后 45 天。以后再担心。

BDO 信誉不佳？

BDO 不是四大会计师事务所。与四大不是同一级别。四大会计师事务所是首屈一指的，但只强调 BDO 过去的违规行为而不提及四大的许多违规行为是短视的。四大会计师事务所确实声誉更好，SMCI 未来可能会改用其中一家。尽管如此，管理层已经划定了防线。

1. 没有欺诈。

2. 可能不会重述财务报告。

如果被发现不诚实，他们将受到诉讼。可转换债券持有人可以撤销，这将是灾难性的。正是这两项声明减少了可转换债券持有人撤销的恐惧。

举报人诉讼

有理有据或无理，它将得到解决，影响不大。

Hindenberg 报告

就我个人而言，我认为确实存在激进的会计和关联方交易。已申报的交易只是正常的业务，需要申报和公平交易。未申报的交易，罚款和和解。不用担心。报告很粗略。

那么有什么好担心的呢？

如果有欺诈！可转换债券撤销随之而来。灾难。

如果 BDO 辞职，又是一场灾难！我觉得管理层宁愿恢复 BDO 的账户，也不愿让 BDO 辞职。

可转换债券持有人因虚假陈述或欺诈而起诉。即使 SMCI 能够辩护，这也会产生影响。值得注意的是，可转换债券持有人从其持有的债券中获得了一些溢价，并且到 2029 年转换价格有望达到 134 美元。SMCI 已宣布独立审查小组未发现欺诈行为。这是他们的战略防御。

展望未来……

我预计未来几个季度的收入增长将保持低位、低迷的两位数。 我个人认为，过去戴尔等公司过于激进的会计收入损失导致了下一季度收入的下调。

2024 年第四季度 GAAP EPS 0.69 美元

2025 年第一季度预计 GAAP EPS 0.53 美元

利润率压缩是一个问题。2025 年第一季度的每股收益反映了这一点。

以 42 美元计算，使用下一季度的预计每股收益，市盈率为 19.8。并不便宜。20 美元，非常便宜。尽管如此，SMCI 仍处于高增长行业。戴尔的 AI 服务器在 2024 年第三季度产生了 36 亿美元的订单；5 个季度的管道增长了 50%。SMCI 的每股收益可能会在接下来的几个季度大幅增长。这是可转换债券买家的期望，转换价格为 134 美元。

管理层需要振作起来并实现目标。标普 500 的最高成就岌岌可危。我相信他们正在努力。