In this case looking at absolute valuations rather than relative valuations, and the combined absolute value score for all three flavors
Three interesting things standout to me:
1. US Large Growth is in extreme expensive territory, the last time it reached this level was during the late-stages of the dot com bubble, and more recently at the peak of the pandemic stimulus frenzy. Risk managers take note!
2. Global ex-US Small Value (GSV) is playing catch-up — this is positive because you can get bullish or bearish rotations (and glad vs sad relative performance). So far this is looking bullish... but to explain:
A. Bullish vs Bearish Rotation: bullish rotation is where one plays catch up to the other thing, and helps drive the index higher. Bearish rotation is when the previous leader falls and the laggard catches up, but the index either stagnates or falls because the laggard is not big enough to outweigh the losses of the larger previous leader.
B. Glad vs Sad Relative Performance: glad is when relative performance is positive while absolute returns are also positive; sad is when relative performance is positive but absolute returns are negative (i.e. both things fall but one falls less than the other).
3. GSV looks reasonable vs history, and has ample room to run, and is following the classic cycle arc of starting cheap, turning up, and then gaining momentum. So this helps provide some further context and clarity on both the risks and opportunities building up in global equities...
$.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$
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