Booming earnings have helped tech stocks break numerous records

Weekly Macro Themes Report - 13 December 2024

1. Stocks vs Bonds: Bearish stocks vs bonds given valuations, technicals, macro. Also mindful of the favorable setup for commodities vs stocks (commodities likely win in resurgence, vs bonds recession).

2. Credit Spreads: Remain cautious on credit spreads given expensive valuations, wider complacency on risk pricing, and mixed macro signals.

3. Tech Stocks: Booming earnings have helped tech stocks break numerous records, and sees them trading at a significant premium vs history, vs non-tech stocks, and vs global TMT stocks.

4. Global vs US Equities: The new extreme relative value gap in global vs US stocks is compelling, but we need to see relative earnings and/or the US dollar turn to see price sustainably turn.

5. US Dollar (+The US Premium): Remain bearish USD despite short-term signs of strength given larger technical picture (significant long-term resistance), expensive valuations, fiscal/monetary headwinds.

$.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$

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Stocks vs Bonds:</strong> Bearish stocks vs bonds given valuations, technicals, macro. Also mindful of the favorable setup for commodities vs stocks (commodities likely win in resurgence, vs bonds recession).</p><p><strong>2. Credit Spreads:</strong> Remain cautious on credit spreads given expensive valuations, wider complacency on risk pricing, and mixed macro signals.</p><p><strong>3. Tech Stocks:</strong> Booming earnings have helped tech stocks break numerous records, and sees them trading at a significant premium vs history, vs non-tech stocks, and vs global TMT stocks.</p><p><strong>4. Global vs US Equities:</strong> The new extreme relative value gap in global vs US stocks is compelling, but we need to see relative earnings and/or the US dollar turn to see price sustainably turn.</p><p><strong>5. US Dollar (+The US Premium):</strong> Remain bearish USD despite short-term signs of strength given larger technical picture (significant long-term resistance), expensive valuations, fiscal/monetary headwinds.</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\".SPX\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\".SPX\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$.SPX(.SPX)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Invesco QQQ\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\"NDX\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NASDAQ 100\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NDX\">$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\".DJI\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\".DJI\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$.DJI(.DJI)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\"DJIA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DJIA\">$GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$</a> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3304651944\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Weekly Macro Themes Report - 13 December 2024</h2><p><strong>1. Stocks vs Bonds:</strong> Bearish stocks vs bonds given valuations, technicals, macro. Also mindful of the favorable setup for commodities vs stocks (commodities likely win in resurgence, vs bonds recession).</p><p><strong>2. Credit Spreads:</strong> Remain cautious on credit spreads given expensive valuations, wider complacency on risk pricing, and mixed macro signals.</p><p><strong>3. Tech Stocks:</strong> Booming earnings have helped tech stocks break numerous records, and sees them trading at a significant premium vs history, vs non-tech stocks, and vs global TMT stocks.</p><p><strong>4. Global vs US Equities:</strong> The new extreme relative value gap in global vs US stocks is compelling, but we need to see relative earnings and/or the US dollar turn to see price sustainably turn.</p><p><strong>5. US Dollar (+The US Premium):</strong> Remain bearish USD despite short-term signs of strength given larger technical picture (significant long-term resistance), expensive valuations, fiscal/monetary headwinds.</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\".SPX\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\".SPX\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$.SPX(.SPX)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Invesco QQQ\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\"NDX\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NASDAQ 100\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NDX\">$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\".DJI\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\".DJI\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$.DJI(.DJI)$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\"DJIA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DJIA\">$GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$</a> </p></body></html>","text":"Weekly Macro Themes Report - 13 December 2024 1. 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