I don't think it is necessary to emphasize the prospect of the medium-term trend of the market. From the short-term trend outlook, I mean the period from mid-December to the end of the month before New Year's Day. Whether there is still a red envelope market in the market, whether the level is large or not, the main external factor isTonight's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

It's quite simple,If tonight's Fed interest rate meeting is the result of a dovish interest rate cut, then we will usher in a big red envelope market; If tonight's Fed interest rate meeting is the result of hawkish interest rate cuts, then we will have a market, but it is expected to be structural, just like the shocks you saw in the past November-December.

So, how do you determine whether it is a pigeon or an eagle?

The core lies in the dot plot, and don't dwell on the question of whether to cut interest rates or not, regarding the 25 basis point interest rate cut, has the article on my official account mentioned it many times in the past month or so?

In the article after the Fed's interest rate meeting in September, I opened a portal, "0919: The Fed officially announced an interest rate cut, turning a new page in the cycle!"

Pictures

At the time, I said in the article that the September dot plot meant, "In 2024, it will be reduced by 100 basis points (that is, there will be 25 basis points each in November and December), another 100-125 basis points next year, and another 50 basis points the year after that, and the target interest rate will be reached to 2.5%-3%.”

Standing at the current time node in mid-December, do you think that the 100 basis points expected by the bitmap are all short of the 25 basis points puzzle tonight?

Therefore, tonight's Fed interest rate meeting will focus on whether Fed officials' overall interest rate cut expectations in 2025 are still 100-125 basis points. Higher than this figure is dovish, and lower than this figure is hawkish.

If you have to guess, I really want to say that it's best to just do 250, but unfortunately this number is a daydream. With the huge variable of Trump, I estimate that tonight's bitmap is expected to fall in 2025-

Rate cut by 50-75 basis points!!!

END-

$NQ100 Index Main 2409 (NQmain) $$Dow Jones Index Main 2409 (YMmain) $$SP500 Index Main 2409 (ESmain) $$Gold Main 2408 (GCmain) $$WTI Crude Oil Main 2408 (CLmain) $