Reward 500 Tiger-coinsAfter two consecutive years of a bull market in U.S. stocks, many analysts are warning that valuations are now too high. This year, any news could trigger a major market correction driven by mean reversion.
U.S. stocks plunged Friday as inflation fears rose. According to the University of Michigan, consumer inflation expectations for the next 5-10 years surged to 3.5%—the highest since 1995.
Fed minutes flagged concerns over tariffs fueling inflation, while $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ soft outlook shook investor confidence. Technically, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 formed a double top, with further gains hinging on next week’s Nvidia earnings.
While the recent volatility in U.S. stocks is concerning, the surge in Chinese stocks is even more so. Most investors are still on the sidelines, given the historically poor performance of Chinese stocks over the years. Despite the recent rally and relatively low valuations, many fear getting trapped in another downturn.
Beyond tech stocks, China’s leading tea beverage brand, Mixue Group, is set to go public next week.
With high profit margins and a low valuation, would you consider subscribing to its IPO?
Franchise Model Drives High Profitability
According to Mixue Bingcheng’s prospectus, its net profit margin for the first nine months of 2024 was 18.7%, and its operating profit margin was 24.6%—both higher than $Starbucks(SBUX)$ and $Luckin Coffee Inc.(LKNCY)$.
Company | Operating Margin | Net Profit Margin |
Starbucks | 15% | 10.40% |
Luckin Coffee | 10.40% | 8.70% |
Mixue Group | 24.60% | 18.70% |
However, it’s important to note that Mixue primarily operates in the tea beverage segment and relies heavily on franchise stores, which differs from Starbucks and Luckin’s business models, contributing to its higher profitability.
Some argue that the IPO price of HKD 202.5 per share is too expensive compared to the price of its drinks. However, based on its HKD 76.355 billion valuation at IPO, Mixue’s P/E ratio is 15.9x, which is lower than $CHABAIDAO(02555)$ ’s 16x and $GUMING(01364)$’s 18x, making it relatively reasonable.
As of September 30, 2024, Mixue Bingcheng had approximately 4,800 stores outside mainland China, forming a rapidly expanding global network. During the reporting periods, Indonesia and Vietnam accounted for 70% or more of its overseas revenue.
Would you subscribe to $MIXUEGROUP(02097)$ IPO?
Have you ever tried Mixue’s drinks?
Is Mixue popular in Southeast Asia and Australia?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
Comments
首先，蜜雪冰城的品牌力和市场表现确实让人印象深刻。作为国内最大的茶饮品牌之一，蜜雪冰城以低价高效的商业模式在全国各地迅速扩张，目前已经拥有超过3.6万家门店，市场份额也在持续上升。从这一点来看，蜜雪的增长潜力是可期的，尤其是在二线及以下城市的渗透率还相对较低。
我自己尝过蜜雪冰城的饮料，虽然口味偏甜，但整体性价比高，适合大众消费，尤其是年轻人群体。说实话，蜜雪冰城的饮品口味上并不算非常独特，但价格和速度上有明显优势，这也正是它快速占领市场的原因之一。
至于东南亚和澳洲市场的表现，蜜雪冰城在这些地区的扩展确实还处于初步阶段，但随着品牌效应逐渐扩大，未来几年可能会迎来增长的窗口期。根据现有的市场反馈，虽然与本地茶饮品牌相比，蜜雪的知名度还有待提升，但其低价的策略和快速复制的模式仍然具有吸引力。
总体来看，如果我在有资金的情况下，我会考虑参与蜜雪的IPO，因为它的品牌基础和市场扩展潜力在未来几年依然值得期待。不过，考虑到高估值风险，也会保持谨慎态度，适量参与。
我自己是尝过蜜雪冰城的饮料的，虽然它的口味不及高端品牌精致，但胜在价格实惠、选择丰富，适合学生和年轻群体。尤其是夏天，一杯冰淇淋柠檬水的确能带来极大满足感，这也是蜜雪冰城能快速扩张的重要原因。
至于东南亚和澳洲市场，蜜雪冰城的确在部分地区受欢迎，比如越南、印尼等国，因其价格优势符合当地消费水平，门店扩张速度快。但澳洲市场相对高端，消费者对品牌和品质要求更高，蜜雪的低价策略未必适用。未来，公司能否在国际市场站稳脚跟，仍取决于品牌升级、供应链本土化等因素。因此，我会关注蜜雪的IPO，但不会盲目跟投。
Incomparable with Starbucks and Coffee Bean where they are established and have a long history.
That’s my 2 cents worth of personal opinion.