GOLD only 50% chance of hitting $4000 by year end?! 70% if it does one thing!!

$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ recently stated that they believed $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ would hit 4000 USD by the end of 2025 -

Goldman Sachs thesis: Donald Trump keeps doing his stuff! Central banks keep buying . Inflation is sticky. The dollar’s losing trust. And if a macro storm hits — gold explodes!

So that got me thinking! What is the probability / odds of that actually happening. So I built a quant model to try and work it out! I put it together in a recent video on my YouTube channel @thestophunter which you can watch here for more detail: Gold to $4,000? 70% Chance If THIS Happens |YouTube Video

Basically though the model was built on these variables:

I combined 5 proven market analysis tools into a single probability-based forecast:

1️⃣ Renko Technical Analysis – Filters out noise, highlights trend strength – Our breakout zone began at $3,400 – Fibonacci extensions project clean targets: $3,650, $3,800, and $4,000

2️⃣ Real-Time News Sentiment Scan – I track macro headlines and geopolitical stressors – Examples: Trump tariffs, BRICS demand, central bank buying – Generates a directional bias score for each time period

3️⃣ Quantitative Probability Modeling – Using a lognormal distribution model (same math behind Black-Scholes) – Shows real probability of hitting $4K based on current volatility

4️⃣ Options Market Straddle Analysis – Uses current implied volatility to calculate trader-expected price ranges – Year-end straddle shows gold priced for a move between ~$2,900 and $4,033

5️⃣ Volatility Sensitivity Testing – Base model at 20% IV = ~50% chance of hitting $4K – If volatility spikes to 65% = over 70% chance of hitting $4,000

Why This Model ShouldWork:

✅ It’s non-biased — driven by data, not opinion

✅ It’s multi-confirmed — combining price action, sentiment, and probability

✅ It’s trade-ready — outputs price targets, directional bias, and strategy zones ✅ And most importantly: it reflects how real traders build conviction

Results:

1️⃣ Renko Technical Analysis = bullish

Current - short term pullback below 3400 USD. Volume and Fibonacci support at 3300 then 3200. Shorter term upsides if breaks and holds 3400 = 3500, 3650 then 3750. Long term trend still in place.

Chart outlook shorter term:

2️⃣ News Sentiment Scan – Short-term bullish bias from:

• Trump tariffs reigniting trade tensions

• BRICS central bank gold demand

• Powell warning on persistent inflation

• Middle East tensions (Iran-Israel) → Directional bias = Bullish to Very Bullish

3️⃣ Options Market Straddle-Implied Moves Based on current spot price and latest implied volatility give about a 18% to 19% +/- move in the price by the year end = $4000 is certainly in the range of possibilities.

What does that look like visually:

4️⃣ Quantitative Probability Modeling results: I also included some shorter term probabilities…

🔁 At current volatility, there’s a 50/50 chance of hitting $4,000.

HOW IT GETS TO 70%

If volatility rises from 20% to 65% — like during macro shocks in 2008/09, 2013 — 📊 the probability of gold hitting $4,000 jumps from 50% → over 70%. So it is very possible.

Events that could trigger this:

• US Trump’s trade war 2.0

• Iran-Israel escalation

• 💥 Sovereign debt panic (US downgrade, Treasury market freeze)

• 🏦 Surprise global rate cuts (stagflation panic)

• 🪙 BRICS launching a gold-linked settlement system

These aren’t black swans — they’re probable grey rhinos already on the radar!

TRADE IDEAS FROM THE MODEL

🔸 Renko Trend Play: • Buy above $3,400 • Targets: $3,500, $3,650, $3,750 then $4000! • Stop: below $3,300. Downsides $3300, $3200

🔸 Options Play: • Long Jan 2026 $3,800 or $4,000 Calls • Or use vertical spreads to reduce cost

🔸 Volatility Play: • Long straddle or strangle → profit from big move either way

🧩 Where This All Comes Together…

This gold model is part of a broader approach I use across markets — combining Renko charts, technical structure, volatility probability, macro context, and quant modeling.

If you're interested in going deeper into these kinds of frameworks — and seeing how they apply to Renko, options, and beyond — I've laid it out in full here:

📘 My new book available from my bookstore: Renko Chart Trading Revolution — the foundation behind this forecast : THE STOP HUNTER BOOKSTORE

🎥 YouTube: [@TheStopHunter] – THE STOP HUNTER

🌐 Website: [www.thestophunter.co.uk] – tools, training, and book releases

Thanks for reading — trade smart, trade with edge. 👊