🎁Key Resistance Level: Will S&P 500 Break Out or Turn Lower?

The S&P 500 has rebounded to 5,650 points—its level before April’s sharp sell-off and a key technical resistance zone.

UBS analysts pointed out in a recent video that the S&P 500 Index typically performs poorly in May, and that the seasonal pattern of “sell in May” still holds. Since the S&P 500 saw a decline earlier this year, this pattern may be even more pronounced.

Over the past 75 years, May hasn’t been a particularly strong month for the S&P 500. In fact, it ranks as only the eighth-best month of the year in terms of performance.

Going back to 1950, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has averaged a modest gain of just 30 basis points in May. Typically, the index struggles in the middle of the month, but tends to rebound during the week of Memorial Day.

This year brings a notable difference: the S&P 500 started the year with a decline. So we revisited the “Sell in May” period—from May 1 to the end of October—specifically for years when the index had dropped more than 5% at the start of the year. There are 14 such instances.

In those years, the performance during the six-month “Sell in May” period was actually worse than average. On average, the S&P 500 fell by 6.2% from May 1 to October 31. So, overall, while the “Sell in May” seasonal pattern may have weakened somewhat over time, it still sends a cautionary signal—especially in years like this one, where the market began with a decline.

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Key Resistance Level: Will S&P 500 Break Out or Turn Lower?

The S&P 500 has rebounded to 5,650 points—its level before April’s sharp sell-off and a key technical resistance zone. Following strong earnings reports from the Magnificent 7, this week’s market focus shifts to the FOMC and its signals on interest rate cuts. The market is still pricing in three rate cuts this year. ------------- Can the S&P 500 successfully break above the 5,600 level, or will it turn lower? And more importantly, can it overcome the seasonal “Sell in May” pattern?

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Comments

1PC
2025-05-06
1PC
My view is S&P500 might be naughty, just break out the key Resistance and then drop 💧 back [LOL].(Let join to get some 🪙 coins, maybe U are the Lucky One to Get the $5 Stock Vouchers 😉) @Shyon @JC888 @Barcode @yourcelesttyy @koolgal @Jes86188
ECLC
2025-05-07
ECLC
Read that "Sell in May" will be different this year. Possible for S&P 500 to break out. However, fear of uncertainty will limit the level and can turn lower quickly.