CPI, Core Retail Sales & Fed Chair speaks - Economic Calendar (12May25)

KYHBKO
05-10

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Economic Calendar (12May25)

Notable Highlights (some are taken from Grok)

  • Core CPI (MoM) is expected at 0.3% (up from 0.1%), and CPI (YoY) at 2.4%. These inflation figures are critical. If actual numbers exceed forecasts, it may signal rising inflationary pressures, potentially prompting a tighter Federal Reserve stance. CPI (MoM) at 0.3% (previously -0.1%) reinforces this trend.

  • Core Retail Sales (MoM) at 0.3% (down from 0.5%) and Retail Sales (MoM) at 0.1% (down from 1.5%) suggest a slowdown in consumer spending, which could signal weaker economic growth.

  • The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at -26.4 points to continued contraction in manufacturing. PPI (MoM) at 0.2% (up from -0.4%) adds to inflation concerns.

  • Fed Chair Powell Speaks (May 15, 2025): Powell’s speech at 20:40 will be pivotal. Markets will look for hints on the Fed’s reaction to the inflation data and economic slowdown signals. A hawkish tone could strengthen the USD and pressure equities, while a dovish tone might support risk assets.

  • Initial jobless claims will be announced. Initial Jobless Claims at 228K (slightly up) indicate a stable but not improving labor market. This weekly report tracks the number of new unemployment claims, serving as a leading indicator of labor market health. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data references as it balances inflation and employment in the economy.

  • Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. This event tracks the weekly change in U.S. crude oil inventories, an oil supply and demand indicator that can impact oil prices and energy markets. If the trend of excess inventories continues, demand erosion can lead to reduced production & weakened consumer spending.

Overall: Inflation is trending higher, but retail sales and manufacturing data suggest economic softness. The Fed may face a balancing act—addressing inflation without stifling growth. Markets will likely remain volatile, with a focus on Powell’s remarks for clarity on future rate decisions.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

April CPI Lower Than Expected! Rate Cut in Sept.?
April CPI rose 2.3% year-over-year, below the expected 2.4% and down from the previous 2.4%. Core CPI increased 2.8% year-over-year, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous reading. Traders have increased their expectations for Fed rate cuts, now betting on a first cut in September and a second one in October. ------------- Will Fed cut rate in September? How will market move tonight?
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