Singapore Post ( $SingPost(S08.SI)$ ) is making headlines again, but not for the right reasons. Its stock nosedived 12% after a dismal earnings report revealed declines in both revenue and profit year-over-year. This stumble comes hot on the heels of last year’s drama, when five key executives jumped ship during a messy restructuring effort. Investors are left wondering: is this a golden opportunity to snag shares on the cheap, or a sinking ship to abandon? And does this earnings flop spell doom for SingPost’s grand restructuring plans? Let’s break it down.
📉 The Numbers Don’t Lie
SingPost’s latest earnings are a wake-up call:
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Revenue: Dropped 7.5% to S$813.7 million, down from S$879.4 million last year.
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Underlying Net Profit: Crashed 40.3% to S$24.8 million, a steep fall from S$41.5 million.
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Stock Slide: Shares tanked 11.8% to S$0.56 after the report hit.
Sure, there’s a headline net profit of S$245.1 million, but don’t be fooled—that’s inflated by a one-off gain from offloading its Australian business. Strip that away, and the core operations are in the red. The domestic postal service is a cash drain, and the international segment’s shrinking fast. What’s going on here?
🛠️ Restructuring: Chaos or Cure?
Last year, SingPost lost five heavy hitters—think CEO, CFO, and other top brass—amid a restructuring push to slim down and refocus. The goal? Pivot from a fading postal giant to a lean logistics contender. But the latest results suggest the plan’s hitting turbulence:
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Leadership Void: No permanent CEO yet, and the executive shuffle’s spooked investors.
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Postal Pain: The domestic network’s bleeding money, with a strategic overhaul still in limbo.
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Global Gloom: International revenue sank 11.2% to S$494.3 million, slammed by weak demand and fierce rivals.
Still, it’s not all doom. The property arm, led by SingPost Centre, posted an 11.9% revenue jump, proving there’s life beyond letters. And that chunky special dividend from the Aussie sale? A cool 9.34 cents per share—hardly chump change.
📊 Key Metrics at a Glance (Table)
Quick Hit: Core earnings are grim, but the one-time gain and dividend offer a lifeline.
📈 Stock Movement
Note: From a high of S$0.635, the stock’s now scraping S$0.56. Bargain or bust?
🎯 Buy Low or Bail Out?
Case for Buying:
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Dividend Boost: That 9.34-cent special dividend is a rare treat, softening the blow of the earnings miss.
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Property Strength: SingPost Centre’s 98.2% occupancy and rising rents are a solid anchor.
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Cheap Valuation: At S$0.56, it’s near a yearly low—analysts peg fair value between S$0.60 and S$0.72, suggesting upside potential.
Case for Selling:
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Core Collapse: Postal losses and a shrinking international arm signal structural rot.
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No Captain: A missing CEO and shaky leadership don’t inspire confidence.
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Market Mess: Logistics faces global headwinds—think inflation and supply chain snarls.
🔄 Did Restructuring Flop?
It’s too soon to write it off. Selling the Australian unit was a win, freeing up cash and fueling that hefty dividend. But the core postal and logistics woes linger, and the exec exodus hasn’t helped. The strategic review of the domestic business could still turn things around—but it’s a slow burn, and investors hate waiting. Restructuring’s not dead; it’s just on life support.
🏁 What’s the Play?
SingPost’s at a crossroads. The stock’s cheap, the dividend’s tempting, and the property arm’s a bright spot—but the core business is a mess, and leadership’s AWOL. If you’ve got nerves of steel and faith in a turnaround, buying now could pay off big. Prefer safety? Sit tight until the CEO seat’s filled and the postal plan’s clear. Can SingPost rebound like before? Maybe—but it’s a gamble. What’s your call—jump in or jump ship? Let’s hear it! 👇
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