Public Holidays
There are no public holidays in China, Singapore, Hong Kong and America.
Economic Calendar (09Jun25)
Notable Highlights (some are taken from Grok)
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The most watched economic data should be CPI, which serves as one of the references for inflation.
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Inflation Trends:
The CPI forecasts (previous core at 0.2% MoM, YoY at 2.3%) suggest a cooling inflation environment, especially with the YoY rate dropping from 2.6%. If actual figures align or undershoot, it could reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten policy, potentially supporting equities and bonds.
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Labour Market:
The previous “Initial Jobless Claims” at 247K shows a stable labour market. A significant increase could signal weakening conditions, while a decrease might bolster confidence in economic resilience.
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Energy and Producer Prices:
The prior crude oil inventory drawdown (-4.304M) may have supported oil prices. Another draw could exacerbate energy cost pressures, while a build might ease inflation concerns.
The negative PPI (-0.5%) indicates falling producer costs, which could translate to lower consumer prices over time, supporting a softer inflation outlook.
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Bond Market:
The 10-Year and 30-Year Note Auctions will reflect investor demand and yield expectations. Higher yields (e.g., above 4.342% and 4.819%) could signal inflation concerns or growth expectations, potentially pressuring stock valuations.
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Initial jobless claims will be announced. The previous was 247K. This weekly report tracks the number of new unemployment claims, serving as a leading indicator of labour market health. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data references as it balances inflation and employment in the economy.
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Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. This event tracks the weekly change in U.S. crude oil inventories, a key indicator of oil supply and demand that can impact oil prices and energy markets. If the trend of excess inventories continues, demand erosion can lead to reduced production & weakened consumer spending.
This week could see market volatility, particularly around Fed-related events and inflation data.
Earnings Calendar (09Jun25)
I am interested in the earnings releases of Adobe, Oracle, and GameStop.
Let us look into Adobe Systems in detail.
Adobe has a “Strong Buy” technical analysis recommendation. The Analyst’s sentiment is “Buy”. The price target is $488.02, which represents an upside of 17.05%.
10-year performance of Adobe:
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Revenue grew from $4,796M in 2015 to $21,505M in 2024, over 4x over 10 years. Growth: Revenue grew from $4,796M to $21,505M, with a 10-year CAGR of 17.9%. Growth rates varied, peaking at 24.7% in 2017 and slowing to 10.8% in 2024, showing consistent expansion.
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Operating Margin grew from 18.8% (2015) to 36.0% (2024). Trend: Operating margin improved significantly from 18.8% to 36.0%, with a notable rise from 25.5% in 2016 to a peak of 34.6% in 2022, reflecting enhanced profitability over time.
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Earnings Per Share (EPS) grew from $1.24 (2015) to $12.36 (2024). EPS increased steadily from $1.24 to $12.36, with a 10-year CAGR of 37.0%. Growth was strong (e.g., 55.8% in 2018), with a minor dip of -7.5% in 2021, indicating robust earnings growth.
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The EV/FCF ratio is 19.2, and FCF growth is 21.3% (10-year CAGR). This suggests solid cash flow generation, supporting operational and investment needs.
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Direct net assets aren’t listed, but Assets growth is 10.9% (10-year CAGR), and Debt/Assets is low at 0.2, with Assets/Equity at 1.8 and Debt/Equity at 0.3. This indicates a strong balance sheet with manageable debt and growing assets.
Adobe demonstrated strong revenue growth (17.9% compound annual growth rate, or CAGR) and excellent earnings per share (EPS) growth (37.0% CAGR), with operating margins improving from 18.8% to 36.0%. FCF grew steadily at 21.3% CAGR, and the balance sheet remained healthy with low debt relative to assets. Overall, Adobe shows consistent financial improvement over the decade.
With the above, Adobe should be a good addition to our portfolio. Let us research before investing. Let us factor in an adequate margin of safety (MOS) before we invest.
Market Outlook of S&P500 - 09Jun25
Technical observations:
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MACD - a top crossover is completed, and this suggests a downtrend is coming. Ranging sideways can be a possible scenario, too.
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Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. However, the 3 lines are converging, and a trend reversal is expected.
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Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.
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The CMF is positive at 0.25, indicating strong buying pressure over the past 20 periods.
The daily interval is showing a “Strong Buy" for the S&P 500 index. 21 indicators are showing a “Buy” rating, and no indicator shows a “Sell” rating.
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Short-Term Outlook: The emerging Morning Doji Star and Morning Star patterns, combined with the price breaking to a new high of 6,000.36, suggest that the S&P 500 is likely to continue its upward trajectory. The next target is 6,100, a psychological level, with potential to reach 6,200 if momentum persists.
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Long-Term Outlook: The broader trend remains strongly bullish, with the S&P 500 establishing a new high above 6,000 and maintaining key support levels. The dominance of bullish candlestick patterns since April 2025 indicates potential for further gains, possibly retesting or exceeding the late 2024/early 2025 peak near 6,000.
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Actionable Insight: The bullish candlestick patterns support a continuation of the uptrend. Traders should watch for a sustained break above 6,000 with increasing volume to confirm the move toward 6,100.
The candlestick patterns indicate a robust bullish outlook for the S&P 500, with the current price action suggesting a strong continuation of the uptrend, both in the short and long term, as it targets higher resistance levels.
(The above is compiled with Grok’s help.)
From the above, the S&P 500 is likely to continue its climb, and we should expect a reversal soon.
News and my thoughts from last week (09Jun25)
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The U.S. Treasury bought back $10 billion worth of its own bonds on Tuesday – the largest buyback in history – in a bid to support a weakening Treasury market. If enacted, President Donald Trump’s proposed “Big Beautiful Bill,” likely to increase the deficit even more, could accelerate an already deteriorating fiscal picture for the U.S. Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to calm fears by declaring the U.S. will “never default” – but when a Treasury Secretary has to say that out loud, it’s clear that a default is a real possibility. - X user Porter Stansberry
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All you need to know about the current trade negotiations between the U.S. and China: 1. The U.S. simply cannot do without Chinese rare earths 2. China would rather not do without U.S. markets 3. Six to twelve months of negotiations, regardless of what the two leaders decide. - X user Mitch Presnick
Fewer international tourists are visiting the US, per CNBC
Affirm, Klarna and BNPL need to understand that the reasons why people need BNPL are the same reasons why we should not offer them. It is only a matter of time before they crash into a debt wall. - Forbes
My Investing Muse (09Jun25)
Layoffs & Closure news
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Nearly 160 companies will be laying off employees throughout the month of June, exceeding the approximately 130 companies that did so in May. The layoffs will affect multiple industries, including retail, pharmaceutical, food and beverage, airlines, package delivery and more. Layoffs in the workforce vary by company, with some laying off between one and 25 employees; other companies, like U.S. Cellular, have larger cuts planned. - NewsWeek
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Microsoft cuts hundreds of jobs after firing 6,000 in May - Bloomberg
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Walt Disney Co. launched another deep round of layoffs on Monday, notifying several hundred Disney employees in the U.S. and abroad that their jobs were being eliminated amid an increasingly difficult economic environment for traditional television. - Los Angeles Times
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Warner Bros. Discovery, as its cable TV business continues to shrink and viewership falls, has made targeted job cuts across its linear networks. The media conglomerate’s linear TV business includes TNT, TBS, CNN, Food Network, Discovery, TLC, Cartoon Network and Turner Classic Movies. The layoffs affect well under 100 employees, a source familiar with the situation told Variety. - Variety
The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariffs negotiation drags on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound.
America’s Debt Spiral
Here is a collection of recent news about America’s debt situation":
USA’s national debt approaches $37 trillion
The US car market BUBBLE is popping: The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans hit 5% for the first time, and exceeded Financial Crisis levels. Auto loan SERIOUS delinquencies 90+ days hit 5% in Q1 2025, reaching the Financial Crisis high - X user Global Markets Investor
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It took over 200 years for the U.S. debt to reach $12 trillion. $12 trillion is how much we added in 4 years between 2020 and 2024. - X user The Rabbit Hole
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In this thread I want to give you an idea just how insane the current government spending is and how far we drifted away from any sustainable fiscal spending. This is all based on reported numbers and there are no assumptions/forecasts. In the current fiscal year, the government already spent $4,159 billion. This is for the first 7 months and the fiscal year ends in September. The latest available data is as of April. The already accrued deficit amounts to over $1 trillion: $1,049 billion. You can see in the chart how net interest expense has become the #2 largest spending category at $579 billion (for 7 months) after social security ($907 billion) and even exceeded national defense ($536 billion), health ($555 billion), and Medicare ($550 billion). The deficit is 34% of total receipts! (1049/3110) In other words: the government spent 34% more than it took in. - X user AJ
World debt rose $7.5 TRILLION in Q1 2025 to a RECORD $324 TRILLION. Emerging markets debt hit a RECORD of $106 trillion. Global debt-to-GDP ratio fell slightly to 325%. Emerging markets' debt-to-GDP hit a record 245% - X user Global Markets Investor
Debt is affecting America at various levels - consumer, federal government and even corporate. As the global reserve currency, any economic volatility can affect the rest of the world. Is this going to bond other countries together? Is this going to make other assets like cryptocurrency more popular?
My final thoughts
The partnership meltdown between President Trump and Elon Musk has dominated the recent news. How will this affect the market and the efforts of DOGE to minimise wastage in government spending? There are different claims and allegations made. This is not good for the market and enemies of the United States would be looking to exploit this further.
Source: https://nypost.com/2025/06/07/us-news/dhs-claims-lapd-waited-2-hours-to-respond-to-protests-over-immigration-raids/
Following the devastating Los Angeles fires, the streets of LA were set ablaze by protestors against the ICE operations. There were unrest and confrontations in different parts of LA. This is going to affect the business, tourism and safety in California.
The United States seems to be “fighting” on multiple fronts - on top of the tariff tensions, China-USA tensions, international student relationships, and multiple war fronts (that include Ukraine-Russia, Iran and Israel-Gaza). And yet, the S&P 500 closed at a recent high despite the recent run of treasury interest rates.
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Foreign investors withdrew a net -$37 billion out of US equities in May, the most in at least 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs. This marks the 2nd consecutive monthly net withdrawal after -$7 billion in April. Year-to-date, foreign investors have withdrawn a net -$31 billion from US equities. By comparison, these same investors bought a net +$201 billion in November and December last year. This comes even as the market recovers and the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause that began on April 10th. Foreigners are rotating out of US stocks. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
With the above, it is no wonder that most of the institutional investors are moving away from the USA.
Sometimes, no trade is the better trade. Is the market due for more profit-taking?
Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.
Let us do our due diligence before we take up any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.
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