S&P500 technical and candlestick analysis (16Jun25) - what 20+ indicators tell us?

KYHBKO
06-15

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 16Jun25

S&P 500 chart on 15Jun25

Technical observations:

  • MACD - a top crossover is completed, and this suggests a downtrend is coming. Ranging sideways can be a possible scenario, too.

  • Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. However, the 3 lines are converging, and a trend reversal is coming.

  • Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.

  • The CMF is positive at 0.18, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods.

The daily interval is showing a “Strong Buy" for the S&P 500 index. 16 indicators are showing a “Buy” rating, and 4 indicators show a “Sell” rating.

Here are the recent candlestick patterns.

Outlook and Implications

  • Short-Term Outlook: The S&P 500 appears to be in a short-term consolidation phase. The Morning Doji Star and Morning Star from May 25 supported the prior rally, but the current drop suggests a pause. The price could offer a potential buying opportunity if bullish momentum resumes. Watch for a new bullish pattern or increased volume to confirm a continuation.

  • Long-Term Outlook: The broader trend remains bullish, with the S&P 500 maintaining key support levels and having established a new high. The recent pullback is likely a normal correction within a strong uptrend, with potential to retest 6,000 or push toward 6,100 if buying pressure returns.

  • Actionable Insight: Traders should monitor for a bounce from current levels, providing a safe entry point for a move back toward 6,000. If the price breaks below the 200 MA with high volume, it could signal a deeper correction toward the 50 MA from the June 2 analysis. Check volume and MACD (which showed divergence on June 2) for confirmation of the next move.

The candlestick patterns suggest a bullish long-term trend with a short-term consolidation, indicating the S&P 500 may be taking a breather after its recent rally before potentially resuming its upward trajectory.

With the above technical analysis and candlestick patterns, I expect a potential downtrend in the coming days.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

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May is Done! How Do You Expect June Movement?
S&P 500 has risen 6.15% this month, marking its best monthly gain of the year. After April’s sell-off and May’s surge, did you make any money? There’s a saying: “Sell in May and go away.” Will you follow it? Interestingly, the market clearly ignored that advice last year. However, June hasn’t historically been a standout month in terms of performance. Historically, the market has NEVER made the top for the year in the month of June. (since 1980) Will you continue to hold or take profits? Will June defy seasonal patterns, or see a temporary cooldown?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • blinxz
    06-16
    blinxz
    Your analysis is thorough
    • KYHBKO: 
      thanks for your kind words
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