🧠 FOMC Showdown: Is This Where the Bull Breaks or Bounces?

The Fed isn't expected to cut this week — but that's not the real story.

All eyes are on the dot plot.

Because in 2024–25, the market doesn't move on reality.

It moves on expectations.

🔍 What Traders Need to Watch

📉 Fewer than 2 cuts forecasted → hawkish surprise → market pullback

📊 2–3 cuts expected → aligns with soft landing thesis → bullish continuation

🚀 4+ cuts projected → market might cheer… but ask yourself: why so aggressive?

🧭 Key Trade Setup

Trade Setup Risk

SPY Short into Fed if dot plot surprises hawkish Strong macro data = sticky inflation fears

QQQ Long if dot plot = 3 cuts + dovish Powell tone Tech rebound could lead next leg

TLT (Bonds) Add exposure if market believes 'higher for longer' is fading Great risk-reward as rate expectations shift.

💬 My View:

📌 The Fed holds. Powell stays vague. Dot plot shows 2–3 cuts.

That = chop zone this week.

But don't underestimate: the first whisper of a confirmed pivot will trigger a rally like no other.

🎯 Final Thought

Forget what the Fed says.

Watch what the market believes.

That's where the alpha hides.

#FedDecision #DotPlot #BullMarket #FOMC #Powell #SPY #QQQ #MacroWatch

I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!

SeptemBEAR is here: Are Your Portfolio Ready for Volatility?

In September, the VIX may fly as we may see September Effect hit again. ------- 1. Is the market in danger with September effect approaching? 2. What's your strategy to cope with risks?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

HiTALK
06-18
HiTALK
Great analysis

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Powell stays vague. Dot plot shows 2–3 cuts.</p>\n<p>That = chop zone this week.</p>\n<p>But don't underestimate: the first whisper of a confirmed pivot will trigger a rally like no other.</p>\n<p>🎯 Final Thought</p>\n<p>Forget what the Fed says.</p>\n<p>Watch what the market believes.</p>\n<p>That's&nbsp;where the alpha hides.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\" style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center;\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b94b733fd536ee281d38500b37ff53c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span></span></p>\n<p>#FedDecision #DotPlot #BullMarket #FOMC #Powell #SPY #QQQ #MacroWatch</p>\n<p>I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Fed isn't expected to cut this week — but that's not the real story.</p>\n<p>All eyes are on the dot plot.</p>\n<p>Because in 2024–25, the market doesn't move on reality.</p>\n<p>It moves on expectations.</p>\n<p>🔍 What Traders Need to Watch</p>\n<p>📉 Fewer than 2 cuts forecasted → hawkish surprise → market pullback</p>\n<p>📊 2–3 cuts expected → aligns with soft landing thesis → bullish continuation</p>\n<p>🚀 4+ cuts projected → market might cheer… but ask yourself: why so aggressive?</p>\n<p>🧭 Key Trade Setup</p>\n<p>Trade Setup Risk</p>\n<p>SPY Short into Fed if dot plot surprises hawkish Strong macro data = sticky inflation fears</p>\n<p>QQQ Long if dot plot = 3 cuts + dovish Powell tone Tech rebound could lead next leg</p>\n<p>TLT (Bonds) Add exposure if market believes 'higher for longer' is fading Great risk-reward as rate expectations shift.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\" style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center;\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cbfc670fb961c23f5ff5243dbc51b23f\" tg-width=\"1979\" tg-height=\"1180\"><span></span></p>\n<p>💬 My View:</p>\n<p>📌 The Fed holds. Powell stays vague. Dot plot shows 2–3 cuts.</p>\n<p>That = chop zone this week.</p>\n<p>But don't underestimate: the first whisper of a confirmed pivot will trigger a rally like no other.</p>\n<p>🎯 Final Thought</p>\n<p>Forget what the Fed says.</p>\n<p>Watch what the market believes.</p>\n<p>That's&nbsp;where the alpha hides.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\" style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center;\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b94b733fd536ee281d38500b37ff53c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span></span></p>\n<p>#FedDecision #DotPlot #BullMarket #FOMC #Powell #SPY #QQQ #MacroWatch</p>\n<p>I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!</p></body></html>","text":"The Fed isn't expected to cut this week — but that's not the real story. All eyes are on the dot plot. Because in 2024–25, the market doesn't move on reality. It moves on expectations. 🔍 What Traders Need to Watch 📉 Fewer than 2 cuts forecasted → hawkish surprise → market pullback 📊 2–3 cuts expected → aligns with soft landing thesis → bullish continuation 🚀 4+ cuts projected → market might cheer… but ask yourself: why so aggressive? 🧭 Key Trade Setup Trade Setup Risk SPY Short into Fed if dot plot surprises hawkish Strong macro data = sticky inflation fears QQQ Long if dot plot = 3 cuts + dovish Powell tone Tech rebound could lead next leg TLT (Bonds) Add exposure if market believes 'higher for longer' is fading Great risk-reward as rate expectations shift. 💬 My View: 📌 The Fed holds. Powell stays vague. Dot plot shows 2–3 cuts. That = chop zone this week. But don't underestimate: the first whisper of a confirmed pivot will trigger a rally like no other. 🎯 Final Thought Forget what the Fed says. Watch what the market believes. That's where the alpha hides. #FedDecision #DotPlot #BullMarket #FOMC #Powell #SPY #QQQ #MacroWatch I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":209,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":6,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/447095127007400","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1077,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":true,"length":994,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":447240239760000,"commentId":"447240239760000","gmtCreate":1750210822018,"gmtModify":1750217590251,"authorId":3479274776688173,"author":{"id":3479274776688173,"idStr":"3479274776688173","authorId":3479274776688173,"name":"HiTALK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0eb7ae4762306c23ef3a30fb831746","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":447095127007400,"objectIdStr":"447095127007400","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Great analysis","text":"Great analysis","html":"Great analysis","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/447095127007400"}