The Federal Reserve is signaling a potential rate cut as early as July, with Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller both expressing support if inflation continues to ease. Core PCE inflation has cooled to 2.6%, and signs of labor market fragility are prompting a more dovish stance. While not all Fed officials are aligned, the growing consensus suggests a shift toward easing policy to support economic resilience.

Markets have responded positively to this tone. Treasury yields have dipped, and equities are holding near record highs. The S&P 500, which recently hovered around 6,040, is just shy of its all-time peak of 6,144. With rate cut expectations rising and inflation pressures easing, investor sentiment is tilting bullish again.

Can the S&P 500 reclaim 6,100? Many analysts think so. The median year-end target among major Wall Street firms is exactly 6,100, with some projecting even higher levels if macro conditions remain favorable. A July rate cut could be the catalyst that nudges the index back above that psychological threshold.