Trade Desk’s S&P 500 Rocket: Can It Blast to $100 This Year?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Trade Desk (TTD) is stealing the spotlight, surging over 14% in after-hours trading to $86.75 on July 14, 2025, after news broke of its inclusion in the S&P 500, effective July 18. This milestone, replacing Ansys due to its acquisition by Synopsys, has reignited investor enthusiasm for the ad-tech leader, which had slumped 35% year-to-date (YTD) to $75.43 before the jump. With the stock now approaching levels where it previously gapped down from its 2024 high of $139.51, the big questions are: Can TTD return to $100 by year-end? Will it fill the gap? And based on historical S&P 500 additions, can it sustain this rally? This report dives into TTD’s surge, its growth potential, and strategic investment approaches to capitalize on this opportunity while managing risks.

The S&P 500 Effect: A Game-Changer for TTD

Trade Desk’s addition to the S&P 500 is a seismic event. Index funds and ETFs tracking the S&P 500 must buy shares, driving significant buying pressure. Historically, stocks added to the S&P 500 see an average 5-10% short-term pop, with some sustaining gains if fundamentals align. TTD’s 14% after-hours surge to $86.75 from $75.43 on July 14, 2025, aligns with this trend, pushing its market cap to ~$42 billion. The inclusion boosts visibility, liquidity, and investor confidence, positioning TTD as a must-own name in the ad-tech space.

Market Impact: The S&P 500 inclusion could add $2-$3 billion in demand from index funds, per analyst estimates, supporting further gains. X users are buzzing, with posts like “TTD’s S&P 500 entry is a rocket booster—$100 incoming!”
Digital Ad Growth: The global digital ad market is projected to hit $1.2 trillion by 2028, per Statista, with TTD’s AI-driven platform capturing a growing share. Q1 2025 revenue rose 28% to $470 million, with connected TV (CTV) ads up 40%.
Disappointment for Others: AppLovin (APP) and Robinhood (HOOD) missed the S&P 500 cut, dropping 3.1% and 1.4%, respectively, highlighting TTD’s unique appeal.

However, sustaining this rally depends on TTD’s fundamentals, Q2 earnings, and broader market conditions.

Can TTD Hit $100 This Year?

Reaching $100—a 15% gain from $86.75—is ambitious but achievable by year-end 2025, given TTD’s catalysts and market dynamics:

Technical Analysis: TTD’s 52-week range is $42.96-$141.53, with a 2024 high of $139.51 in December. A gap formed around $100-$110 after a 2025 sell-off, and the recent surge to $86.75 suggests it’s closing that gap. Resistance at $90-$95 is key; a breakout could target $100-$110. Support at $80-$85 aligns with the 50-day moving average.
Analyst Targets: RBC Capital’s $100 target (from March 2025) is now within reach, while Wedbush sees $120, citing CTV and international growth. The average target from 24 analysts is $95, implying 9.5% upside, but recent upgrades suggest $100-$110 is plausible.
Fundamentals: Q1 2025 revenue of $470 million (up 28%) and $800 million in projected free cash flow for 2025 support growth. TTD’s 32x forward P/E is high but justified by 25%+ annual revenue growth, compared to peers like Magnite (20x P/E).
S&P 500 Precedent: Stocks like Datadog (DDOG) surged 10% on S&P 500 inclusion but later pulled back 5%. Williams-Sonoma (WSM) gained 3.6% but struggled to sustain momentum. TTD’s strong fundamentals suggest it could outperform these, targeting $100-$110 if Q2 earnings (August 27) beat expectations.

However, risks loom:

Market Volatility: Trump’s tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada, effective August 1) could disrupt ad-tech clients, with a potential 5-10% S&P 500 pullback to 5,800-6,000.
Competition: Alphabet and Meta’s AI-driven ad platforms challenge TTD’s market share, with Google’s recent antitrust ruling potentially boosting TTD’s position.
Valuation Concerns: At 32x P/E, TTD’s premium valuation leaves little room for error if earnings or guidance disappoint.

Filling the Gap: Technical and Fundamental Outlook

The gap around $100-$110, formed after TTD’s 2024 high of $139.51, is a key focus. The stock’s 14% surge to $86.75 has closed part of this gap, and technical indicators suggest momentum could carry it higher:

Chart Patterns: The 50-day moving average ($85) provides support, with the 200-day at $80. A breakout above $90 could target $100-$110, filling the gap. A failure to hold $85 might test $80.
Volume Surge: Trading volume spiked to 10 million shares post-announcement, signaling strong buying interest.
Momentum Indicators: RSI at 65 indicates room for upside before overbought conditions (above 70).

Fundamentally, TTD’s growth in CTV ads (40% YoY) and international markets (30% of revenue) supports a rally to $100. Q2 earnings on August 27, expected to show $500 million in revenue and $0.35 EPS, could be the catalyst to close the gap if TTD beats estimates.

Historical S&P 500 Additions: Can TTD Sustain the Rally?

Historical data on S&P 500 additions offers clues:

Datadog (DDOG): Gained 10% on inclusion (July 2025) but pulled back 5% within a month due to market volatility.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM): Rose 3.6% on inclusion (March 2025) but struggled to sustain gains amid tariff fears.
Average Performance: S&P 500 additions typically see a 5-10% short-term pop, with 60% sustaining gains over six months if fundamentals are strong, per S&P Global data.

TTD’s 28% revenue growth and $800 million free cash flow projection give it a stronger foundation than DDOG or WSM, suggesting it could sustain gains past $100 if Q2 earnings impress. However, tariff risks and competition could cap upside or trigger a pullback to $80-$85.

Trading and Investment Strategies

Short-Term Plays

Buy on Dip: Enter at $80-$85, target $100-$110, stop at $75. A 15-30% gain if Q2 earnings beat or momentum holds.
Options Straddle: Buy $86.75 calls/puts to profit from volatility around Q2 earnings or tariff news.
Competitor Hedge: Buy Magnite (MGNI) at $12-$13, target $16, stop at $11, to balance TTD’s ad-tech exposure.

Long-Term Investments

Hold TTD: Buy at $80-$85, target $120-$130 over 12 months, for 40-50% upside with digital ad growth.
Diversify with Tech ETF (XLK): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, for broad tech exposure.
Defensive Play: Buy UnitedHealth (UNH) at $300, target $436.83, for 40% upside and 2.8% dividend yield.

Hedge Strategies

VIXY ETF: Buy at $15, target $18, stop at $13, to hedge against tariff or earnings volatility.
SPY ETF Puts: Use puts at $614 to protect against a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback.
Gold ETF ( $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ ): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, as a safe-haven hedge.

My Trading Plan

I’m cautiously bullish on TTD, seeing $100-$110 as achievable by year-end 2025, driven by S&P 500 inclusion and digital ad growth. I’ll buy TTD at $80-$85, targeting $100-$110, with a $75 stop, betting on Q2 earnings and CTV momentum. For diversification, I’ll add MGNI at $12-$13, targeting $16, with an $11 stop, to capture ad-tech upside. I’m hedging with VIXY at $15, targeting $18, and keeping 20% cash to seize dips if tariffs (e.g., U.S.-China trade tensions) or geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran conflict) shake markets. I’ll monitor Q2 earnings (August 27), tariff negotiations, and digital ad trends for cues.

TTD’s Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

Trade Desk’s S&P 500 inclusion on July 18, 2025, has sparked a 14% surge to $86.75, closing part of a $100-$110 gap from its 2024 high of $139.51. With 28% Q1 revenue growth, a $1.2 trillion digital ad market by 2028, and strong CTV momentum, TTD could hit $100-$110 by year-end if Q2 earnings beat expectations. However, tariff risks (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada), competition from Alphabet and Meta, and a 32x P/E pose challenges, with a potential pullback to $80-$85 if catalysts falter. Investors should buy on dips for long-term upside, use options for volatility plays, and hedge with VIXY or GLD to manage risks. TTD’s rally is just getting started—play it smart to win big.

Can TTD hit $100 this year? Are you buying, holding, or hedging? Share your strategy below! 🎁

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Trade Desk to Join S&P! Can It Return to $100 This Year?

Trade Desk surged over 14% after hours! It will be added to the S&P 500 index, while expectations for AppLovin and Robinhood to be included were once again unmet. After the post-market jump, TTD returned to the level where it previously gapped down. Can it fill the gap this year? Is a return to $100 possible? Based on how other stocks performed after joining the S&P 500 in the past, can TTD continue to rally?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.