After briefly breaking above $3,500 on April 25, international gold prices have repeatedly failed to hit new highs. Cooling geopolitical tensions, uncertain Fed rate cuts, and easing trade concerns have all weighed on momentum.
Ben Nadelstein, research head at Monetary Metals, believes a new high is unlikely in July: “Unless Powell is replaced or the Fed cuts rates, I don’t see gold reaching $3,500.”
Brandon Aversano, CEO of The Alloy Market, agrees. He says any significant short-term rally would require major economic headwinds or rising global instability.
In contrast, Brett Elliott, marketing director at APMEX, believes surprises are possible: “With the right catalyst, gold can swing more than 3% in a day.” He points to trade policy as a potential trigger.
According to market watchers, four key drivers could impact gold prices in Q3 and beyond:
Central Bank Demand – Continued large-scale buying by global central banks could push prices higher. A slowdown may dampen prices slightly.
Geopolitical Risks – Fresh black swan events could reignite safe-haven demand, but current risks (e.g., Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) are largely priced in.
Inflation Data – Sudden inflation spikes may signal economic weakness, leading investors to increase gold holdings.
U.S. Dollar Trends – Gold tends to move inversely with the dollar. With the dollar index down over 10% in H1, future Fed policy, U.S. economic resilience, and trade tensions will all influence its path—and gold’s.
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