I’ve been watching $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ very closely, and I believe it stands out as one of the most fascinating large‑cap growth stories right now. Here’s my deep‑dive into everything that matters, which are the business model, recent delivery and production metrics, upcoming earnings expectations, technical momentum, valuation, and what I’m watching next.
I’m convinced that Tesla remains unique in its combination of EV hardware, vertical integration, and software/AI capabilities. Beyond cars, it controls the full stack, battery cells (via Gigafactories), powertrains, Supercharger network, and increasingly software features (FSD subscriptions, in‑car streaming). From where I sit, that end‑to‑end model gives Tesla a durable moat, allowing it to push ASPs higher, retain customers through recurring software revenue, and leverage data for continuous improvement.
On July 2, Tesla reported it produced 410,244 vehicles and delivered 384,122 in Q2 2025. Despite some analysts calling the deliveries a “miss,” the stock actually rallied 5% on the day, and I saw mildly bullish follow‑through into July 3. To me, those figures confirm that:
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Production capacity is expanding—the 410K units made this quarter represent an 8% increase over Q1.
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Demand remains resilient—384K deliveries, even amid pricing pressure and subsidy roll‑offs, underscores solid pull.
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Inventory discipline—with only ~26K units of surplus stock, Tesla isn’t overproducing, which bodes well for margin preservation.
Wall Street expects $0.39 EPS on $22.1 billion in revenue for Q2, both down YoY—driven by a ~13.5% drop in vehicle sales and margin pressure from price cuts and lost tax credits. Options traders are bracing for a roughly ±7% post‑earnings move (≈$23 on the stock) according to implied moves. In my view:
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The setup is asymmetric: If Tesla can announce even a modest beat—say $0.45 EPS or >$23.0 billion revenue—it could trigger a sharp relief rally.
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Key catalysts: Updates on the lower‑cost vehicle roadmap, any nod to increased FSD subscribers, or commentary on robotaxi progress could drive the beat.
I’m watching whether Tesla’s commentary on humanoid robots (Optimus) or AI‑driven Dojo compute will give investors more confidence in its long‑term software‑plus‑services storyline.
With a volume ratio of 0.67, I'd say calls are in demand today, which aligns with my view that traders are anticipating positive news or momentum. A 30-day OI ratio above 1.0 (~1.35) implies that institutional players have built more put exposure, likely as a hedge against macro or earnings-related risks.
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Short term: sentiment is bullish (more calls traded today).
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Long term: sentiment is slightly cautious, with puts edging out calls in open interest.
For my trading plan, I’m leaning bullish in the near term, but will closely monitor any shifts in both ratios, especially heading into Tesla's next catalyst.
Technicals
TSLA Daily Chart
The stock has been making higher highs and higher lows since early July, a clear sign of bullish momentum. It’s trading above its 50‑day SMA ($315) and 200‑day SMA ($290), both of which are sloping upward, indicating the primary trend is up. Near‑term resistance sits at $340–$345 (recent intraday highs), with support around $320. A decisive breakout above $345, especially after earnings, could light up a move toward $380 and $430 next. The risk here is that it is hard to predict earnings, with the negative scenario being a huge drop ignoring the support around $320, and further downside towards $300 and $288 next.
At a $1 trillion market cap, Tesla trades at roughly 12× forward sales (using full‑year 2025 consensus revenue of $81 billion) and over 200× forward EPS. I know that sounds lofty, but I frame it this way:
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A beat on revenue or EPS, or even modest, can re‑rate the multiple higher, given the unique software optionality.
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If Tesla can ramp FSD ARPU or show traction in energy storage (9.6 GWh deployed this quarter), that could justify even a 15× sales multiple for the next leg.
My personal lens: I’m comfortable owning into earnings because the risk (–7% move) feels more than offset by the upside potential of a beat and positive guidance on AI initiatives. If you have less risk tolerance, it is better to avoid Tesla, or wait for a few days post earnings for a clearer direction.
The combination of expanding capacity, resilient demand, AI‑driven software optionality, and a setup for a potential earnings relief rally makes TSLA one of my highest‑conviction large‑caps this week. At current price, I see a favorable asymmetry: limited downside into earnings (–7% implied) versus a multi‑week upside of 15–20% on a solid beat and roadmap update.
If you share my belief in Tesla’s end‑to‑end EV × AI platform, and can manage the post‑earnings volatility, I think this is a compelling juncture to position for the next leg.
@MillionaireTiger @Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @CaptainTiger @TigerSG
Disclaimer: This is a general analysis and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
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