$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 🪙📊🚀 Coinbase Breakout Ride: $COIN Ignites On Quadruple Tailwind 🚀📊📈

I’m extremely confident this is not just a setup; it’s a structural rerating in motion. With the SEC’s Project Crypto initiative officially launching and crypto-friendly legislation accelerating, $COIN is poised to capture institutional flows and derivative expansion. Call flow shows heavy $435 calls and bullish net premium stacking, matching unusual whales activity ahead of earnings. The stock has jumped from ~$377 to ~$386 with net call premiums far eclipsing puts, put/call ratio around 0.35 compared to ~0.56 usual, and implied volatility near 62.1% pricing ~$15 daily moves (~6.4%) ahead of results.

💰 Financial Performance Breakdown:

Full-year 2024 revenue came in at ~$6.56 B (+111% YoY), net income $2.579 B (+2,618%), driving a ~41% profit margin. Subscription and services revenue rose to ~$2.3 B (+64%), transaction revenue to ~$4.0 B (+162%). Q1‑25 revenue was ~$2.034 B (+24% YoY) with net income ~$66 M, reversing from previous losses.

🛠️ Strategic Headwinds & Execution Risk:

Regulatory uncertainty could still weigh despite favorable laws. The recent cyberattack via bribed support staff may cost up to $400M. Transaction volume sensitivity to Bitcoin fluctuations remains. Deribit acquisition adds integration risk despite derivative upside. See revised guidance of subscription revenue $685–765 M and mid-teens transaction expense ratio.

🧠 Analyst & Institutional Sentiment:

H.C. Wainwright reiterated Buy, raising PT from $255 to $330; Citi maintained Buy rating raising PT to $350 on expected stablecoin tailwinds and regulatory clarity. Consensus implied upside ~15–20%. ETF inclusion in S&P 500 (first crypto company) broadens institutional demand. Deribit deal fuels conviction. Insiders like Armstrong recently proposed selling small blocks, net neutral to marginal supply.

📉📈 Technical Setup:

Weekly chart shows resistance at $444.64 high, pivot breakout zone $366.16 to $430. Fibonacci 23.6% retrace near $382; 38.2% near $348 supports current ~$377–$386 range. RSI6 at ~69.05, RSI12 ~67.78, RSI24 ~62.60; momentum strong and in bullish territory. MACD DIF 42.65 over DEA 25.14 with MACD line 35.01 indicating upward crossover trend. EMAs: 5-week MA at 387.40, 10-week at 333.94, 20-week at 267.89, 30-week at 263.39; price riding above all major EMAs. Keltner and Bollinger bands on 4h charts expanding with price hugging upper bands after tight consolidation, indicating classic bull flag behavior.

🌍 Macro & Peer Context:

Bitcoin recently hit a record high ~$119,963 in July, fueling crypto market momentum. U.S. legislation (GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, Project Crypto) to modernize securities rules and regulate stablecoins is accelerating institutional growth. $COIN outpaces $SQ and $MSTR with product-led growth in derivatives and stablecoin revenue segments. Coinbase joined S&P 500 in May, amplifying index flows.

📊 Valuation & Capital Health:

Forward P/E below 20x on consensus ~$1.55 EPS in Q2‑25; EV/EBITDA ~10x (Adjusted EBITDA ~$3.3B). FCF yield >5%. Cash position robust with ~$404 B Assets on Platform and ~$10.3 B equity; debt rated BB-/B2. Share repurchase program $1B authorized, not yet utilized.

⚖️ Verdict & Trade Plan:

Swing entry zone:

$375–380 on support retest near Fibonacci 23.6% and lower Bollinger daily band. Stop-loss: below $348 (Fibo 38.2%). 

🎯 Base target: $430 (pivot breakout next resistance), stretch: $580 (projected extended zone beyond $444 high). Confirmation signals: continued call flow net premium inflow above $2M, retest volume surge, MACD histogram expansion. Upcoming catalysts: Q2 earnings after close today, SEC regulatory updates, Deribit integration updates.

🏁 I am confident; this isn’t just a setup. It’s a structural rerating in motion.

📌 Key Takeaways:

• Full-year revenue 2024 ~$6.56 B (+111% YoY); net income $2.58 B (+2,618%)

• Q1’25 revenue ~$2.034 B (+24% YoY); net income ~$66 M

• Analysts: H.C. Wainwright PT $330, Citi PT $350 (Buy ratings)

• RSI6 ~69, MACD DIF 42.65 crossing above DEA 25.14; momentum intact

• Resistance $430 next, $444.64 ATH; support zone $366–$380 retest Fib/EMA confluence

• Options call flow heavy on $435 strike, net call premium dominating, IV ~62%

• Catalysts: SEC Project Crypto rollout, S&P 500 inclusion, Deribit acquisition, crypto legislation

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