Cannabis Stocks Are Back: Could Trump Spark a Second Boom?

If you glanced at the U.S. stock market this week, you might’ve thought we time-traveled back to 2021’s cannabis mania. Shares of Tilray surged 41% in a single day, Canopy Growth jumped 26%, and Cronos popped 14%. The sweet smell of weed stocks is back in the air. $Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$ $Canopy Growth Corporation(CGC)$ $Cronos Group Inc.(CRON)$

One Sentence, an $80 Billion Catalyst

This rally wasn’t sparked by earnings, mergers, or product breakthroughs. Instead, it was pure policy speculation + retail sentiment. And the trigger? A single quote from Donald Trump at a press conference:

“We are looking at reclassifying marijuana. It’s a very complicated subject, and we’ll be making a decision in the next few weeks.”

It may not sound like much, but for cannabis investors, this was a bombshell. If marijuana is reclassified from a Schedule I drug (same class as heroin and cocaine) to Schedule III, it could tear down the legal, tax, and financial barriers that have kept the industry in limbo for years.

Why Reclassification Matters

Under current federal law:

Cannabis is illegal, classified as a Schedule I drug.
Cannabis businesses can’t deduct operating expenses (which leads to crushing taxes).
Banks, insurers, and payment companies avoid working with the industry.
Cannabis can’t cross state lines, limiting growth to single states.

A reclassification to Schedule III could:

Slash tax burdens – expenses become deductible again.
Open the door to mainstream banking – no more all-cash businesses.
Allow institutional capital to flow in – ending the legal “gray zone” that kept big money out.

Put simply: this could be the moment cannabis stocks move from being speculative penny stocks to legitimate growth investments.

Who Are the Cannabis Players?

U.S.-listed cannabis stocks fall into two buckets: Canadian producers (fully legal but often unprofitable) and U.S. MSOs (multi-state operators that are thriving but hamstrung by federal laws).

Canadian Cannabis Companies

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$ A global cannabis + alcohol player with operations in 20+ countries. While it has lost ground in Canada, its beer and wellness acquisitions could provide diversification. Still viewed as a “legal play” with institutional support.
$Canopy Growth Corporation(CGC)$Once Canada’s #1 cannabis company, now in the middle of a major restructuring, exiting parts of Canada to focus on the U.S. market. Backed by alcohol giant Constellation Brands.
$Cronos Group Inc.(CRON)$More biotech-focused, leaning into CBD and medical marijuana. Backed by Marlboro parent Altria, offering a cash-rich, low-risk profile.

U.S. Cannabis Operators (MSOs)

While these companies don’t trade on major exchanges (yet), they’re the real deal when it comes to operations, revenue, and market dominance. They’ll benefit most directly from a Schedule III shift.

$Curaleaf Hldgs Inc.(CURLF)$ The biggest U.S. MSO by revenue, with 147 stores in 17 states. Brands like Select and Grassroots drive growth.
$Green Thumb Industries Inc.(GTBIF)$ Over 100 retail locations across 14 states with strong brand power (incredibles, Beboe).
$Trulite, Inc.(TRUL)$ $Trulite, Inc.(TRUL)$Florida’s dominant player with a reputation for efficiency and profitability. Once the world’s largest cannabis retailer by sales.

Is This the Bottom — or Just Another Head Fake?

Let’s be clear: Trump’s comment is just a comment. The reclassification would need to pass through the DOJ and DEA, and there’s no firm timeline. But that hasn’t stopped speculators from betting big. With most cannabis stocks trading under $1 and sporting 0.5–1.5x price-to-sales multiples, even modest buying can spark outsized gains.

This is classic event-driven speculation. If you’re a momentum trader, this is your kind of setup. If you’re a fundamentals investor, ask yourself: would you buy a stock that’s down 95% and still burning cash — just because the policy winds might shift?

As Tim Seymour, a cannabis-focused fund manager, put it:

“If you really want exposure to the sector, this may be the moment you’re in earlier than most institutions. The question is: can you stomach the uncertainty?”

Final Take

This isn’t 2020 — there’s no stimulus, no Reddit-fueled army, and no free money.
But if federal reform really happens, this could be the beginning of a major rerating for the sector.
Just be aware: cannabis stocks fly fast and crash even faster. If you’re playing this wave, keep leverage low and positions small (less than 10% of your portfolio).

Because this isn’t a sure bet. It’s a high-risk, high-reward trade on a political promise — and that’s always a wild ride.

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