CoreWeave ( $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ ) is making headlines as it braces for its first major post-IPO share unlock on Friday, August 15, 2025, with approximately 84% of its Class A shares—around 403 million shares—set to become tradable. Held largely by insiders and key supplier NVIDIA, this influx could flood the market, sparking selling pressure. The stock, which debuted at $40 on March 28, 2025, and peaked at $187, slipped below $100 yesterday, closing at $98.50 after a 9.2% drop, only to rebound slightly to $101.20 in overnight trading. With the S&P 500 at 6,466.58, Nasdaq at 21,713.14, and Bitcoin at $124,002, the market remains buoyant, but tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) and oil at $75/barrel add tension. Is this dip a sign of an oversold stock due to lock-up expiration fears, or a prime buying opportunity under $100? This deep dive unpacks the situation, market signals, and strategies to navigate this pivotal moment.
The Unlock Impact: A Market Shake-Up?
The impending lock-up expiration is stirring the pot for CoreWeave:
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Share Flood: With 403 million shares unlocking—valued at $40.7 billion at current prices—insiders and NVIDIA, holding 24.2 million shares, could sell, potentially driving prices lower if demand doesn’t absorb the supply.
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Price Reaction: The stock’s fall to $98.50, down from $111.84 on August 5, reflects pre-unlock jitters, though the overnight bounce to $101.20 suggests some buying interest amid the panic.
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Historical Context: Post-lock-up drops are common—e.g., Snowflake fell 10% after its 2020 unlock—but CoreWeave’s 179.6% YTD gain (from $40 to $111.84) might cushion the blow if fundamentals hold.
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Insider Moves: No immediate sell signals from NVIDIA or insiders, but historical data shows 20-30% of unlocked shares often trade within a week, per web insights, which could cap gains short-term.
Posts found on X highlight mixed sentiment, with some labeling it “oversold” and others bracing for a “sell-off storm,” reflecting uncertainty around the unlock’s true impact.
Market Dynamics: Oversold or Overhyped?
CoreWeave’s dip invites technical and fundamental scrutiny:
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Technical Signals: The RSI dropped to 42 from 76 last month, nearing oversold territory (below 30), with support at $95-$97 and resistance at $105-$110. The MACD at -2.5 hints at fading momentum, but volume of 12.1 million shares aligns with its 50-day average, suggesting steady interest.
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Valuation Check: At $98.50, the price-to-sales ratio falls to 8x based on $1.2 billion Q2 revenue (per recent reports), down from 12x at $111.84, aligning closer to analyst targets of $90.20, hinting at undervaluation.
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Fundamentals: Q2 revenue of $1.2 billion, up 420% year-over-year, and a $29.9 billion backlog signal growth, though a -$0.83 EPS miss and 2.60 debt-to-equity ratio raise concerns about profitability and leverage.
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Sector Tailwinds: AI cloud demand, with peers like NVIDIA up 28% YTD, supports CoreWeave, but a potential 3-5% market dip to 6,200-6,300 on tariff fears could drag it lower.
The stock’s 9.2% drop might be overblown if unlock selling is orderly, but a flood of shares could test $90 if panic sets in.
Is It Oversold? Buy Under $100?
Analysts and data offer mixed clues:
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Oversold Case: The RSI’s decline to 42, coupled with a 13.4% drop from its $111.84 high, suggests oversold conditions, especially if volume stabilizes. Web analysis notes stocks often rebound 5-10% post-unlock if fundamentals are solid.
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Buy Signal: At $98.50, CoreWeave trades 9% below its $108 average target, with a low of $32 and high of $185 from 14 analysts. A buy under $100 could target $110-$115 if AI growth persists, offering 12-17% upside.
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Risk Factors: A 20-30% unlock sell-off, as seen in some IPOs, could push it to $70-$80 if NVIDIA or insiders dump shares. The VIX at 14.49 and tariff uncertainty amplify downside risk.
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Circle Parallel: Like Circle’s 700% IPO run, CoreWeave’s retail appeal (20% allocation) and NVIDIA backing could drive a recovery, but only if lock-up sales are absorbed.
A buy under $100 seems viable if support holds, but timing is critical.
Trading Strategies: Seize the Dip
Short-Term Plays
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Buy on Dip: Enter at $95-$98, target $105-$110, stop at $92. A 7-12% gain if oversold conditions reverse.
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Sell Call Options: Sell $105 calls (August expiry) for 100-150% premium decay if selling pressure eases.
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Options Straddle: Buy $100 calls/puts (August expiry) for volatility, targeting 200-300% gains on a 10% move.
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Scalp Rebound: Buy at $98-$100, sell at $105, stop at $95. A 5-7% gain on quick recovery.
Long-Term Investments
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Hold CoreWeave: Buy at $95-$98, target $120-$130 by 2026, for 22-33% upside if AI demand grows. Stop at $90.
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Diversify with NVDA: Buy at $141-$145, target $180-$200, for 28-38% upside with synergy. Stop at $135.
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Tech Play: Buy Applied Digital (APLD) at $8-$9, target $12-$14, for 50-55% upside with AI exposure. Stop at $7.
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Defensive Pick: Buy Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) at $165-$167, target $175-$180, for 5-8% upside with stability. Stop at $160.
Hedge Strategies
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VIXY ETF: Buy at $14, target $17, stop at $12, to hedge volatility or tariff risks.
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SPY Puts: Use puts at $646 for a 5-10% market drop if sentiment sours.
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Gold (GLD): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, as a safe-haven play.
My Trading Plan: Navigating the Unlock
I’m eyeing CoreWeave’s dip as a buying chance, anticipating a post-unlock rebound. I’ll buy at $95-$98, targeting $105-$110, with a $92 stop, betting on oversold recovery. I’ll add NVDA at $141-$145, aiming for $160, with a $135 stop, and APLD at $8-$9, targeting $12, with a $7 stop. For diversification, I’ll pick JNJ at $165-$167, targeting $170, with a $160 stop. I’m hedging with VIXY at $14, targeting $16, and holding 20% cash for a potential drop to $90 if unlock selling spikes. I’ll watch insider moves and tariff news closely.
Key Metrics
The Bigger Picture
CoreWeave’s drop below $100 to $98.50, ahead of its 84% share unlock on August 15, 2025, sparks debate over oversold status versus sell-off risk. The S&P 500’s 6,466.58 and Bitcoin’s $124,002 provide a bullish backdrop, but tariffs and a potential 20-30% dip to $70-$80 threaten stability. At $98.50, it’s 9% below analyst targets, suggesting a buy under $100 if support holds, targeting $110-$115. Investors should buy dips, hedge with VIXY or GLD, and monitor unlock volume. This could be your edge—act with precision.
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