CoreWeave Breaks $100 Barrier: AI Infrastructure Goldmine or Figma's Design Trap?

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08-29

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ CoreWeave's shares blasted past $100 on August 28, 2025, closing at $104.50 after Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $116 price target, citing the trillion-dollar AI infrastructure opportunity. The cloud computing firm, valued at $60.40 billion, has skyrocketed 179.6% year-to-date, driven by its Nvidia GPU-powered AI servers. Meanwhile, Figma's stock at $73 has drawn a Neutral rating from JPMorgan with a $65 target, though FactSet's average Overweight rating and $75 mean PT offer a glimmer of hope for the design software leader. With the S&P 500 at 6,512.34, Nasdaq at 21,918.45, and Bitcoin at $123,456, the VIX at 14.12 reflects calm amid tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) and oil at $74.50/barrel. Is CoreWeave the AI treasure, or Figma the hidden gem? This deep dive explores their trajectories, market dynamics, and strategies to pick your winner.

CoreWeave's AI Surge: Infrastructure Powerhouse

CoreWeave's breakout is fueled by AI demand:

  • Cantor Boost: The Overweight rating and $116 target (11% upside from $104.50) emphasize CoreWeave's $1.21 billion Q2 revenue (up 210.3% YoY), with a $20 billion valuation and Nvidia partnership adding credibility.

  • Growth Metrics: Q2 EPS at -$0.83 missed estimates, but 210.3% revenue growth and $3.5 billion cash reserves highlight scalability, with 300 data centers planned by 2026.

  • Technical Signals: RSI at 68 and support at $100 suggest momentum, with resistance at $110; a break above could target $116.

  • Market Buzz: Posts found on X hail "CoreWeave's AI rocket" but warn of "margin squeeze" with 2% gross margins, reflecting split sentiment.

  • Long-Term Potential: If AI infrastructure hits $1 trillion by 2030, CoreWeave's $60.40 billion market cap could double to $120 billion, with a $200 target (91% upside) if partnerships expand.

CoreWeave's infrastructure edge positions it for AI dominance.

Figma's Design Dilemma: Neutral Outlook

Figma's path is less clear:

  • JPMorgan Neutral: The $65 target (11% downside from $73) reflects concerns over $228.2 million Q1 revenue (up 46% YoY) but slowing growth from 46% to 30% projected for Q2, amid competition from Adobe XD.

  • FactSet Average: Overweight rating and $75 mean PT (3% upside) offer hope, with 1.5 million paid users and 46% gross margins.

  • Technical Signals: RSI at 55 and support at $70 suggest stability, with resistance at $80; a break above could target $85.

  • Market Buzz: Posts found on X praise "Figma's design moat" but question "growth slowdown," reflecting a split sentiment.

  • Long-Term Potential: If Figma's AI tools like FigJam AI drive 40% revenue growth, the $34 billion market cap could hit $50 billion, with a $90 target (23% upside) by 2026.

Figma's design strength could rebound if innovation accelerates.

AI vs Design: Who Surprises Next?

CoreWeave and Figma represent contrasting paths:

  • CoreWeave Bull Case: At $104.50, a 5-10% rise to $110-$115 is feasible this week if $100 holds, with a $150 target (44% upside) by year-end if AI demand surges.

  • CoreWeave Bear Case: A 5-8% dip to $94-$99 risks if $100 breaks, with $80 as support; a margin miss could test $90.

  • Figma Bull Case: At $73, a 4-6% climb to $76-$78 is possible if $70 holds, with $90 (23% upside) by year-end if AI tools boost growth.

  • Figma Bear Case: A 4-6% drop to $66-$69 threatens if $70 fails, with $60 as a floor; a growth slowdown could cap at $65.

  • Catalyst Watch: Nvidia’s earnings and Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21-23) could sway sentiment, with tariff updates adding volatility.

  • Daily Forecast: CoreWeave $100-$115 (Wednesday), $98-$112 (Thursday), $95-$120 (Friday); Figma $70-$78 (Wednesday), $68-$76 (Thursday), $65-$80 (Friday), per analyst trends.

CoreWeave's AI infrastructure offers surprise potential, but Figma's design story endures.

Trading Strategies: Bet on AI or Hedge Design

Short-Term Plays

  • CoreWeave Breakout: Buy at $104.50-$105, target $115-$120, stop at $100. A 10-15% gain if AI holds.

  • Figma Dip: Buy at $70-$72, target $78-$80, stop at $68. A 8-11% rebound if support holds.

  • Profit Lock: Sell CoreWeave at $110-$115, target $105-$108, stop at $120. A 5-7% buffer if overbought.

  • Options Play: Buy $110 CoreWeave calls or $70 Figma calls (September expiry) for 150-200% gains on a 10% move.

  • Scalp Swing: Buy CoreWeave at $104.50, sell at $110-$112, stop at $102. A 5-7% quick win.

Long-Term Investments

  • Hold CoreWeave: Buy at $104.50-$105, target $150-$180 by 2026, for 44-72% upside if AI grows. Stop at $95.

  • Hold Figma: Buy at $70-$72, target $90-$100 by 2026, for 25-39% upside if tools shine. Stop at $65.

  • Diversify with PDD: Buy at $127.50, target $150, for 18% upside. Stop at $120.

  • Defensive Pick: Buy PepsiCo at $185, target $200, for 8% upside. Stop at $180.

Hedge Strategies

  • VIXY ETF: Buy at $14, target $17, stop at $12, to hedge volatility.

  • SPY Puts: Use puts at 6,400 for a 5-10% market drop if sentiment sours.

  • Gold (GLD): Buy at $200, target $210, stop at $195, as a safe haven.

My Trading Plan: Betting on AI

I’m riding the AI wave with a balanced approach. I’ll buy CoreWeave at $104.50-$105, targeting $115, with a $100 stop, betting on infrastructure. I’ll add Figma at $70-$72, aiming for $78, with a $68 stop, on design potential. I’ll hedge with $100 CoreWeave puts at $5, targeting $10, and buy PepsiCo at $185, targeting $195, with a $180 stop, for stability. I’ll hold 20% cash for a dip to $95 or tariff news. I’ll monitor earnings calls and updates closely.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

CoreWeave’s $100 break on August 28, 2025, with a $116 Cantor PT, aligns with a 6,512.34 S&P 500 and $123,456 Bitcoin rally. A 5-10% rise to $110-$115 is possible this week if $100 holds, with a $150 target (44% upside) by year-end if AI surges. A 5-8% dip to $94-$99 threatens if margins miss, with $80 support. Figma’s $65 JPMorgan PT (11% downside) contrasts its $75 mean (3% upside), with a $90 target (23% upside) by 2026 if AI tools shine. AI infrastructure like CoreWeave offers surprise potential—bet wisely with VIXY or GLD hedges, or wait for clarity. The trillion-dollar AI game is on—your next move?

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