🧸 Pop Mart at HK$300: Disney-in-the-Making or Hype at Its Peak?

Pop Mart has been the darling of Hong Kong’s consumer rally in 2025. From the frenzy around Labubu to the surprise move into jewellery, it’s built one of the most talked-about IP-driven ecosystems in Asia. But now, even the bulls are pausing.

This week, JPMorgan cut its target price from HK$400 to HK$300, warning that the year’s biggest catalysts are already priced in. Shares are holding near record highs, but the downgrade begs a tough question: is this dip a gift for believers, or the start of a hangover after too much hype?

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📊 What Fueled the Rocket Ride?

Pop Mart’s rally wasn’t luck — it was execution plus timing.

H1 revenue jumped +204% YoY to RMB 13.9B, outpacing nearly every consumer peer.

Management hiked its full-year target from RMB 20B to RMB 30B — a bold signal of confidence.

Labubu alone contributed 34% of revenue, showing the power of a single IP franchise.

Collaborations with Uniqlo and fashion brands expanded reach.

New ventures like gold jewellery stores pushed IP beyond toys into lifestyle.

Index inclusion brought in passive inflows, adding another layer of demand.

Result? The stock surged 222% YTD, making Pop Mart one of the hottest HSI names, alongside Tencent, Xiaomi, and Chow Tai Fook.

But every rocket eventually tests gravity.

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⚠️ Why JPMorgan Hit Pause

The downgrade isn’t about Pop Mart failing — it’s about valuation, momentum, and psychology.

1. Hype cooling: Secondary-market prices for Labubu and Crybaby models are slipping closer to retail. That’s a red flag for demand saturation.

2. Valuation stretch: At HK$300+, Pop Mart is priced for perfection. Even small disappointments — weaker sales, slower IP launches — could spark volatility.

3. Catalyst fatigue: Strong H1, Uniqlo collabs, new stores… all known, all priced in. What’s next to drive the next leg higher?

In short, JPMorgan is asking: what can Pop Mart do in H2 that investors don’t already know about?

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🚀 The Bull Case: “China’s Disney” in the Making

For bulls, this pullback is noise compared to the long-term story.

IP is the moat. Labubu, Skullpanda, Crybaby — these are Gen-Z cultural icons, not just toys. Like Mickey Mouse in the 1930s, their emotional stickiness can compound for decades.

Category stretch. Pop Mart isn’t a toy company anymore. Jewellery, lifestyle products, and fashion tie-ups mean it’s building an ecosystem of consumer touchpoints.

Global expansion. Stores in Japan, Korea, and Southeast Asia are gaining traction. If this goes well, Pop Mart could be the first Chinese IP brand to crack global mainstream retail.

Think of the parallels: Disney started with a mouse. Nike started with a shoe. Pop Mart started with a doll. What looks small can become a cultural giant if scaled right.

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🧐 The Bear Case: Funko 2.0?

But skeptics point to history: collectibles often burn hot, then cool fast.

Funko Pop boomed in the U.S. with endless figurines, then struggled when oversupply and fatigue set in.

Valuation risk. Unlike Disney, Pop Mart doesn’t yet have movies, theme parks, or streaming. Its moat is narrower and still fragile.

Margin pressure. Global expansion and new product lines are expensive. If costs outrun revenue growth, the market could punish the stock hard.

The big fear: Pop Mart’s HK$300 hype cycle echoes Funko’s peak, when investors confused short-term demand with a durable moat.

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💡 Investor Psychology: Riding the Hype Cycle

Pop Mart is less about pure numbers and more about narrative investing.

When hype is high, valuations get ignored. Investors buy the story, not the spreadsheet.

When hype fades, multiples collapse fast, even if earnings remain solid.

This is why Pop Mart divides opinions. Some see it as the next Disney, others as a bubble stock fueled by Gen-Z hype. Both sides can be right at different times — it’s all about when you enter, and when you exit.

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🔍 Key Things to Watch

For investors deciding whether to chase, hold, or sell:

New IP launches: Can Pop Mart replicate Labubu’s magic with fresh characters?

International traction: If Japan or Europe embraces its brands, upside could be massive.

Margins: Expansion burns cash. Will profitability hold up as growth broadens?

Consumer sentiment: If secondary-market hype revives, it could be another leg higher.

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🔎 Discussion Points

1. Without a big new catalyst, can Pop Mart sustain its hype at HK$300+?

2. Does its IP expansion into jewellery and lifestyle strengthen the long-term moat — or risk stretching the brand too thin?

3. At what level would you buy the dip — HK$280, HK$250, or wait lower?

4. Longer term, do you see Pop Mart as China’s Disney or China’s Funko?

💬 Drop your take: Dip-buying opportunity, or a hype-driven trap?

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