🎉 NTES/TCOM ATH, BIDU/BABA breakout—did you ride the China-tech pop?

China ADRs are blooming everywhere: $NetEase(NTES)$ and $Trip.com Group Limited(TCOM)$ extend all-time-highs, while $Baidu(BIDU)$ and $Alibaba(BABA)$ finally break their multi-year bases. Are you on board?

On 17 Sep 2025 the Fed officially hit the “start” button of its new easing cycle. Hot money immediately rushed back into risk assets and China names became the favorite playground.

1. Who’s leading? (see the chart with stocks market cap > USD 15Billion)

• New highs club: $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ , $NetEase(NTES)$, $Trip.com Group Limited(TCOM)$ , $Chunghwa Telecom(CHT)$

• 5-year highs: $The Metals Company(TMC)$

• Bottom reversals: $Baidu(BIDU)$ +11%, $Alibaba(BABA)$ +2.44% in one session

• The rest catching up: $JD.com(JD)$ , $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ , $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$all +>30% YTD

• Sep gainers (top-5): $Baidu(BIDU)$ → $Alibaba(BABA)$ → $NetEase(NTES)$ → $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ → $KE Holdings Inc.(BEKE)$

• 2025 YTD returns (top-5): $Tencent Music(TME)$ → $Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$ → $Alibaba(BABA)$ → $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ → $NetEase(NTES)$

Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index ( $NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index(HXC)$ ) jumped 2.85% on 17 Sep, gapping to a fresh high. ETFs followed: $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ +4.2%, 2×-levered $Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bull 2x Shares(CWEB)$+8.6%.

2. Why the frenzy? Four reinforcing engines

1. Earnings up-cycle – AI, travel, music, EV margins inflecting

2. Liquidity shower – Fed cut + USD DXY < 100 → offshore USD flows

3. Policy put – PCAOB deal extended, HK dividend-tax cut, domestic stimulus

4. Positioning – short interest at 2-yr low, quants & long-only stepping in

Read more on CN Assets Picks>> @Tiger_Academy

💰YINN up 4% and NTES Fresh all-time High! Add Exposure on CN Assets?

Check China Market Heatmap:Top HK Stocks, ADRs & ETSs

3. Below I dissect the “fact → driver → outlook” for the hottest names.

I. All-time-high cohort

1. $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ – AI wafer “hard currency”
   3/2-nm fully booked by NVDA & AAPL through 2026; AI revenue >45%. CoWoS capacity to double again in 2026. Street high PT: US$290 (BofA) – 28× 2026E EPS, 30% EPS CAGR.

2. $NetEase(NTES)$ – from game studio to content platform
   Knives Out global 10m copies; Eggy Party 45m DAU; Cloud Music profitable. Two global AAA titles slated for 2026. DCF fair value US$161; avg. street PT HK$235 → US$151 ADR.

3. $Trip.com Group Limited(TCOM)$ – outbound revenge travel
   Q2 international ticket volume 85% of ’19, but revenue 155% (higher take-rate). National-Day bookings +210% YoY. Street high PT US$85 (Citi/Barclays) – 25× 2025E EPS US$3.2.

4. $Chunghwa Telecom(CHT)$ – 5G + IDC + 4.2% dividend
   Cloud & IDC revenue +21% YoY. If valuation re-rates to regional 18× PE, bull case PT US$51.

II. 5-year high – $Tencent Music(TME)$

Paying users 117m, pay-ratio 19.2%, ARPPU +17%. GM 38% all-time high; US$1bn buy-back 6.4% completed. Street high PT US$28 (Mizuho/Jefferies) – 25× 2025E net profit US$1.2bn.

III. Bottom-reversal pack

1. $Baidu(BIDU)$ – ERNIE 4.0 API calls 300m Jul; cloud-AI revenue first-ever RMB10bn (+36%). Apollo Go unit-cost 30% below human driver. If AI/cloud hits 25% of sales, GM back to 25% → EPS US$10; bull PT US$160 (CICC).

2. $Alibaba(BABA)$ – e-commerce GMV DD growth two quarters in a row; international orders +32%. Cloud-AI >20% of cloud revenue, 8th straight triple-digit quarter. Board added US$16bn buy-back. SOTP bull PT US$300 (Morgan Stanley) – cloud 5× EV/sales + core e-commerce.

3. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ – new mass-brand ONVO L60 orders 80k. Battery-swap alliance expanded to 8 OEMs. Q3 delivery guide 55-60k record high; targeting break-even Q4-25. Bull PT US$15 (Bocom) – 1.2× 2025E PS.

4. $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ – MONA M03 48h orders 30k, NGP standard at US$15k price-point. Q4 delivery guide +170% YoY, GM >8%. If 2025 sales 350k + 2× PS, bull PT US$25 (CICC).

4. Take-away

This is NOT a simple valuation bounce. We are looking at a rare triple-cycle overlap:

• Earnings revisions turning positive

• Global rate cycle turning dovish

• China policy risk premium turning lower

Keep dancing until the music stops—and the playlist looks long enough to last through year-end.

What China names are you holding and why?
[Call][666][Allin]Drop your thoughts in the comment box – best 50 comments get 5 Tiger coins each by Monday open (22 Sep 2025).

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