Recent Apple summary:
Apple’s iPhone 17 lineup opened for pre-orders on September 12.
iPhone 17 lead times have stretched to 19 days, notably higher than last year’s iPhone 16 at 10 days, the longest since iPhone 11.
China shows the longest wait times with strong demand; government subsidies may be one driver.
Goldman Sachs forecasts 8% iPhone revenue growth in Apple’s fiscal Q4 2025.
FY2026 iPhone shipments raised from 221M to 236M units, implying ~2% YoY growth.
How to assess the recent move:
Apple has been in a strong uptrend.
Preorder lead times exceed last year’s, indicating robust demand for the iPhone 17 family.
Forward revenue outlook is constructive; Apple is entering a multi-year, innovation-led growth cycle.
Applying ~29x to the 2027 calendar-year EPS estimate yields a $280 price target.
Options analysis:
Based on Apple’s October options, the implied trading range is $230–$260.
There’s strong support below $230 where put open interest clusters.
There’s strong resistance above $260 where call open interest clusters.
Implied volatility is about 23%–24%, a neutral level, suggesting relatively contained moves and a high likelihood of trading within the range above.
Note: as October earnings season approaches, the range may shift.
Trading strategies:
Price is in a technical resistance zone, but there’s still some room to the upside; consider selling out-of-the-money puts.
If you hold Apple shares, consider selling out-of-the-money covered calls to harvest near-term carry.
Strike/expiration references:
Covered call: $AAPL 20250926 265.0 CALL$ (win rate 88%)
Short put: $AAPL 20250926 250.0 PUT$ (win rate 82%)
Strategy details:
If you hold 100 shares of Apple, sell 1 call expiring September 26 with a $265 strike; you collect the option premium at sale. If Apple is below $265 on September 26, the option expires worthless and the entire premium is your profit. If Apple is above $265, you still keep the premium, and your 100 shares are called away at $265 per share.
To sell the $250 strike put expiring September 26, you need a minimum margin requirement of $5,905 (varies with the stock price). You collect the option premium at sale. If Apple is above $250 on September 26, the option expires worthless and the premium is your full profit. If Apple is below $250, you keep the premium but are assigned 100 shares; your effective cost basis equals 250 minus the premium received.
Comments