Electric Vehicles
Key News:
New Model Y Performance launched in the US, 0-60 MPH acceleration improved to 3.3 seconds, expected to boost next quarter deliveries.
Analysts raised Q3 delivery estimates to 482.9k vehicles (from 420k), target price adjusted to $490, driving recent stock price increase.
Announced 3rd generation Optimus humanoid robot launch by end of 2025, mass production in 2026; Musk targets 1 million units annual production by 2030.
September registrations: Spain +3.4% YoY, Norway +14.7% YoY, but Sweden -64% YoY.
Options Analysis:
Based on options data, TSLA's expected weekly volatility range is $420-$470.
High concentration of put OI in the $420-$430 zone indicates a strong support level, making it difficult for the stock to break below.
Maximum call OI is at $470, constituting the primary overhead resistance.
The stock is likely to experience wide fluctuations between support and resistance; a direct breakout in either direction is difficult.
Based on IV (44.16%) and days remaining, the expected price range for the Oct 3rd expiry is approximately $427-$462.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell the Oct 3rd 430 PUT $TSLA 20251003 430.0 PUT$ : Near-month contract offers high liquidity (volume 25,379), strike price at the lower end of the predicted range, suggesting a high probability of success.
Key News:
September deliveries hit a record high of 34,749 vehicles, up 64% YoY; new ES8 model helped drive weekly sales to 10,800, doubling recent figures.
3rd Gen ES8 secured 100k cancellable orders, reinforcing market optimism.
Intraday 52-week high of $7.78, closed at $7.55.
Options Analysis:
Based on options data, NIO's expected two-week volatility range is $6.85 - $8.39.
Strong support formed in the $6.5-$7.0 zone (high put OI concentration).
Resistance encountered in the $7.0-$7.5 zone (high call OI concentration).
Implied Volatility is high at ~73%, indicating expectations for significant price swings; calculated weekly volatility is ~10%.
Active call trading suggests bullish sentiment. The stock is likely to fluctuate widely between support and resistance.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell the Oct 3rd 6.5 PUT $NIO 20251003 6.5 PUT$ : Strike price $6.5 is a high OI area for puts (11,112 contracts); current stock price $7.62 is well above, suggesting high success probability.
Sell the Oct 10th 6.5 PUT $NIO 20251010 6.5 PUT$ : Expires the following week; IV remains high, offering substantial time value decay potential; $6.5 strike is a support level.
Semiconductors
Key News:
Market cap hit a new high above $4.5 trillion; CEO Jensen Huang sold 75k shares (~$13.89M). Institutions like Citi raised target prices to $210-$220.
Associated company CoreWeave signed a $14.2B AI compute agreement with Meta.
Morgan Stanley estimates Nvidia's investment in OpenAI could generate $350-$400B in incremental revenue.
Options Analysis:
Based on options data, NVDA's expected weekly volatility range is $178-$195.
Strong support formed around $180 (high put OI concentration).
$190 (high call OI concentration) constitutes the primary resistance.
Current IV is ~32%. Call trading volume significantly outpaces puts, indicating overall bullish sentiment.
The stock is most likely to trade between $178 and $195, particularly within the $180-$190 core range.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell the Oct 3rd 175 PUT $NVDA 20251003 175.0 PUT$ : The $175 strike is below the expected lower volatility bound ($178.30), suggesting a high probability of success.
Key News:
AMD announced a deepening collaboration with Wangyu Esports to integrate Ryzen X3D processors into more internet cafes.
Options Analysis:
Based on options data, AMD's expected weekly volatility range is $155-$170, potentially expanding to $150-$175 the following week.
Strong support formed at $160 (high put OI) and $150 (key level for next week).
Primary resistance is at $170 (highest call OI concentration).
Current IV is ~32%, a moderate level indicating expected volatility, but not extreme.
High call OI at $170 suggests bullish sentiment. The stock is likely to trade within the $155-$170 core range.
The range might expand slightly next week as key support shifts lower.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell the Oct 3rd 155 PUT $AMD 20251003 155.0 PUT$ : Put OI at $155 is 7,403 contracts, indicating strong support and high success probability.
Sell the Oct 3rd 170 CALL $AMD 20251003 170.0 CALL$ : Call OI at $170 is 31,796 contracts; the market sees a low probability of breaking through, suitable for collecting premium.
Key News:
US Senator Bernie Moreno urged Intel to disclose progress on its Ohio factory; the company reaffirmed its commitment but provided no new timeline.
SoftBank subscribed to 86.95M shares at $23/share ($2B raised), but dilution concerns increased selling pressure.
TSMC again denied a foundry partnership with Intel, weakening market expectations for its technology catch-up.
Options Analysis:
Based on options data, INTC's expected weekly volatility range is $31.5-$35.5, potentially expanding to $29.5-$37.5 the following week.
Key support formed in the $30-$32 zone (high put OI concentration).
Resistance lies in the $35-$37 zone (high call OI concentration).
Notably, despite high IV (~67%), it remains below historical volatility, presenting opportunities for selling options. The stock is likely to trade within this wide range.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell the Oct 3rd 30 PUT $INTC 20251003 30.0 PUT$ : The $30.0 strike PUT has high OI (14,353 contracts, good liquidity); current price $33.55 makes a drop below $30 unlikely.
Sell the Oct 10th 32 PUT $INTC 20251010 32.0 PUT$ : The $32.0 strike PUT has moderate OI (4,053 contracts); $32 is a mid-term support level, with a low probability of being breached.
Key News:
Company secured a $14.2B cloud services contract with Meta, valid until 2031, involving AI compute resources powered by Nvidia GB300 technology, significantly boosting long-term revenue visibility.
Evercore ISI initiated coverage with "Outperform," target $175; FactSet shows average institutional target price of $139.58, implying upside potential.
Options Analysis:
Based on options data, CRWV's expected short-term volatility range is $125-$145, with a mild upward bias.
Key support formed in the $120-$135 zone (high put OI concentration).
Primary resistance lies in the $130-$150 zone (high call OI concentration).
While IV is high at 93.68%, it's at a historically low percentile (22.22%), suggesting relatively moderate expected volatility.
Put/Call ratio is high at 2.58, indicating very bullish market sentiment.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell the Oct 3rd 125 PUT $CRWV 20251003 125.0 PUT$ : IV is low, selling puts collects premium; $125.0 PUT OI is 5,870 contracts (good liquidity).
Tech & Cloud
Key News:
Seaport Global initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating, target $310, above the FactSet average of $247.67.
Strong iPhone 17 sales fuel optimism; Bank of America noted significantly better delivery cycles vs. previous models. The company's $60B infrastructure & AI investment sparks debate on long-term growth.
Options Analysis:
Based on options data, AAPL's expected weekly volatility range is $249.7-$259.5, potentially expanding to $244.2-$265.1 the following week (to Oct 10).
Key support formed around $250 (high put OI concentration).
Primary resistance is at $260 (highest call OI concentration).
IV is ~26%, a neutral level. Call OI significantly outweighs put OI, indicating overall bullish sentiment. The stock is likely to trade moderately between support and resistance.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell a Straddle: Simultaneously sell the 255 CALL and 255 PUT: $AAPL 20251003 255.0 CALL$ $AAPL 20251003 255.0 PUT$
Profit if the stock stays between $252.69-$257.31: Premium = $2.31 (CALL) + $2.31 (PUT) = $4.62/share. The predicted range ($249.7-$259.5) covers the strategy's breakeven range, suitable for a neutral volatility strategy.
Key News:
Gemini model powers UiPath voice interaction automation and fully replaces Google Assistant in smart home systems.
Wolfe Research raised its target price significantly from $220 to $290, reflecting optimism about AI search and cloud growth.
Options Analysis:
Based on options data, GOOG's expected two-week volatility range is $230-$250.
Key support formed in the $230-$235 zone (high put OI concentration).
Primary resistance lies in the $245-$250 zone (high call OI concentration).
IV is ~37.5%, relatively high for the year, indicating expectations for larger price swings.
Put/Call ratio near 1 indicates balanced bullish/bearish forces, neutral sentiment. The stock is likely to trade widely within the $230-$250 range without a clear directional bias.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell the Oct 3rd 230 PUT $GOOG 20251003 230.0 PUT$ : High PUT OI ($230 PUT OI=4,749), good liquidity; selling when IV is high captures time decay.
Sell the Oct 10th 250 CALL $GOOG 20251010 250.0 CALL$ : High CALL OI at $250 (OI=1,964); low probability of breaking $250 short-term, suitable for conservative investors.
Key News:
Closed at $179.9, hitting a new high since October 2021, with volume reaching 21.44M shares, making it the top-performing Chinese ADR in September.
Options Analysis:
Based on options data, BABA's expected weekly volatility range is $173.4-$184.0, potentially expanding to $170.7-$186.7 the following week (to Oct 10).
Key support formed in the $170-$175 zone (high put OI concentration).
Primary resistance is around $180 (high call OI concentration).
IV is ~53%, indicating expectations for noticeable price movement.
The Put/Call ratio is 2.10, indicating overall optimistic market sentiment. The stock is likely to fluctuate between support and resistance with a positive bias.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell the Oct 3rd 170 PUT $BABA 20251003 170.0 PUT$ : High put OI (1,444 contracts); out-of-the-money strike is far from the current price, suggesting high success probability (assuming price stays within $173.4-$184.0).
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