USA vs The World Equities

Callum_Thomas
10-23

The inflection point underway in EM vs DM actually echoes a larger theme of US stocks starting to run out of steam vs the rest of the world.

A key part of the flipside of the EM vs DM relative bear market is the long-term and massive relative bull market in US vs Global stocks. But to echo the comments from above, the thing about long-running and overhyped bull markets is that they start for good reason and end when things become unreasonable e.g. valuations become stretched and set an improbable high bar for future performance, investors become giddy and overallocate to that market, and the underlying fundamental story reaches maturity (and ultimately becomes unsustainable).

In other words: the USA is towards the end of its cycle, while EM is arguably just at the beginning stages of its cycle.

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