11/4 Hot Options Analysis: Chip Stocks Faced with Burry Shorts and Policy Pressure, But Present Best

Semiconductors & Chips

NVDA, AMD, INTC, MU

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

# Key News Summary #

1. Significant Price Target Hike: On November 4, Loop Capital raised its price target on NVDA from $250 to $350 (the highest on the street), believing AI chip demand is entering a "golden wave" with strong data center growth.

2. Policy and Short-Selling Impact: US restrictions on chip exports to China drove the stock price below $200; well-known investor Michael Burry shorted NVDA, erasing over $120 billion in market cap in a single day.

3. Divergent Market Sentiment: Despite negative catalysts, retail investor sentiment remains "extremely bullish," with the average analyst price target implying over 11% upside.

# Options Analysis #

• Bull/Bear Signals: Call/Put Ratio reached 1.76, indicating dominant bullish sentiment, but profit-taking pressure exists above $200.

• Volatility Expectations:

  • 2025-11-07 Expiry: Expected range $180-$205. Higher IV (some contracts >70%) due to shorter duration and higher event sensitivity.

  • 2025-11-14 Expiry: Expected range $185-$210. Current Implied Volatility (IV) is 52.25%, higher than Historical Volatility (IV/HV=1.26), reflecting market expectations for sharp near-term swings.

• Key Levels:

  • Support: $180 (Put open interest concentration, OI 31,846 contracts); $185 (block trade Put selling concentration).

  • Resistance: $200 (Call open interest peak, OI 41,046 contracts); $205 (Nov 14th Call OI 55,892 contracts).

# Options Strategy Reference #

• Sell Put Option: $NVDA 20251114 180.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: $180 is a strong support level. If the stock rebounds, the option is unlikely to be exercised (ITM probability ≈16.84%). High IV offers rich premium; can capture time decay (Theta)收益 after short-term event shocks.

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$

# Key News Summary #

• AMD Q3 revenue was $9.25B, beating expectations of $8.76B, but the stock fell nearly 5% after-hours due to data center growth missing market expectations and conservative Q4 guidance.

• Stifel raised its price target to $280 (from $240), maintaining a "Buy" rating. Analysts believe its Instinct AI chips will enter mass production in 2026, but near-term concerns exist regarding China business and inventory adjustment risks.

# Options Analysis #

• Market Sentiment: Implied Volatility (IV) is high at 68.7%, IV Percentile 87.6%, indicating options are pricing in significantly elevated near-term volatility risk.

• Price Ranges:

  • 2025-11-14: Expected range $240-$260. High current IV reflects market positioning for a directional move post-earnings. Technical support at $240 (October pullback low), resistance at $260 (late October high).

  • 2025-11-07: More volatile near-term, expected range $235-$265. The $230 Put OI exceeds 30k contracts, representing a key support level; heavy $250 Call/Put OI indicates intense bull-bear divergence.

# Options Strategy Reference #

• Sell Put Option: $AMD 20251107 230.0 PUT$ 

  • Logic: High IV allows for selling options to capture time decay. $230 is near pre-earnings support, suggesting a high probability of the price holding above (Win Rate ≈78.9%).

$Intel(INTC)$

# Key News Summary #

• Price Target Hike: Tigress Financial raised Intel's price target from $45 to $52, maintaining a "Buy" rating, optimistic about its AI and foundry business growth.

• Acquisition Rumors: Intel may acquire AI chip company SambaNova to enhance competitiveness in AI inference, seen by the market as potentially accelerating technology integration.

• Long-Term Targets: Institutions forecast 2025 price target of $48 (+29.7% from current $37.03) and 2026 target of $55, reflecting AI and chip foundry expansion expectations.

# Options Analysis #

• Implied Volatility (IV): Current IV 63.49%, at the 66th percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.32, indicating market expectations for increased near-term volatility.

• Expected Price Range:

  • Nov 7 Expiry: More volatile, range $33.5-$38.5.

  • Nov 14 Expiry: Expected range $34.5-$40.0. Technical support at $36 (recent low), resistance at $39 (previous high).

• Puts: Strike prices $35.0 (OI 2,834), $36.0 (OI 6,505) are concentrated, reflecting near-term downside concerns.

• Calls: Strike prices $39.0 (OI 3,569), $40.0 (OI 4,115) are concentrated, suggesting potential tests of resistance.

# Options Strategy Reference #

• Sell Put Option: $INTC 20251114 35.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: High liquidity (OI 2,834 contracts), exercise probability 21.81%, Win Rate ≈78%. If the stock holds above the $36 support, premium can be captured.

  • Strategy Logic: IV is elevated, selling Puts collects premium, suitable for bullish/neutral outlook. Time decay accelerates profits if the price stabilizes.

$Micron Technology(MU)$

# Key News Summary #

• Major Price Target Hike: GF Securities raised Micron's price target from $194 to $311, a >60% increase, as institutions are bullish on its memory chip demand growth.

• Sharp Price Swings: MU fell 7.10% on Nov 4 but rose 4.88% on Nov 3, indicating significant divergence in earnings expectations.

# Options Analysis #

• Implied Volatility (IV) is high at 73.6%, IV Percentile 95.6%, hitting a near 6-month high, suggesting potential for sharp near-term price swings.

• Expected Price Ranges:

  • 2025-11-14 (Near Week): $210-$230. Potential for a bounce stimulated by the price target hike, but needs to digest selling pressure after the previous day's decline.

  • 2025-11-07 (Nearer Term): $200-$220. High IV increases intraday volatility risk; downside support references the $200 level (Put OI concentration).

• Key Levels:

  • Support: $200 (Put OI 3309 contracts, large block Put buying).

  • Resistance: $215 (Call OI 4439 contracts, psychological level supported by price targets).

# Options Strategy Reference #

• Sell Put Option: $MU 20251114 200.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: High IV boosts premium; $200 is near recent lows, high profit probability if the price stabilizes.

  • Strategy Logic: Utilize high IV to lock in premium income while positioning for a potential rebound, balancing win rate and risk-reward.

Electric Vehicles (EV)

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

# Key News Summary #

• Lawsuit Risk: Tesla sued over a 2024 Model S accident resulting in five deaths, alleging door malfunctions prevented passenger escape. The case may raise safety concerns.

• China Sales Decline: October shipments from the Shanghai factory fell nearly 10% YoY, indicating global demand softness and intense local competition (e.g., BYD, NIO).

• Key Shareholder Vote: Musk's $1 trillion compensation package faces opposition from Norway's sovereign fund, but Wedbush predicts likely approval, potentially boosting investor confidence if passed.

# Options Analysis #

• Market Sentiment & Volatility Expectations:

  • Implied Volatility (IV) 65.1%, IV Percentile 40.8%, indicating relatively high option pricing and potential for significant near-term swings.

  • Call/Put Ratio 1.67 shows bullish bias, but recent negatives cap gains.

• Expected Price Range:

  • Near Week (Nov 14 Expiry): $420-$455. Support at $430 (previous low), resistance at $460 (recent high).

  • Next Week (Nov 21 Expiry): Wider range $415-$465, IV slightly lower but more time value.

• Key OI Levels:

  • Calls: High OI at $450, $460 strikes, reflecting bets on a rebound.

  • Puts: Concentrated OI at $435, $440, indicating some hedging against downside.

# Options Strategy Reference #

• Sell Put Option: $TSLA 20251114 435.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: Current price ~$444, $435 is a support level, high liquidity (OI 2616 contracts), ITM probability only 30.3%, Win Rate ≈69.7%. Attractive premium due to high IV, suitable for neutral or mildly bullish outlook.

Internet Consumer & Cloud Computing

AAPL, META, GOOGL, PLTR, BABA

$Apple(AAPL)$

# Key News Summary #

• Daiwa Securities Raises PT to $300: On Nov 5, Daiwa raised Apple's PT from $230 to $300, maintaining "Outperform," expecting services and high-end iPhone demand to drive growth.

• Jefferies Upgrades to "Hold": Jefferies upgraded Apple from "Underperform" to "Hold" due to better-than-expected iPhone 17 sales and strong service revenue.

• Buffett May Continue Selling: Berkshire likely reduced Apple holdings again in Q3, but market attention is partially offset by recent optimism.

• Budget Mac Plan Revealed: Apple plans low-cost Macs, potentially stimulating mid-market; stock rose 0.47% Tuesday to $270.29.

# Options Analysis #

• Volatility Expectations: Current IV 26% (IV Percentile 26%) is low, suggesting relatively "cheap" options. But IV/HV ratio 1.07 implies slightly elevated near-term volatility potential.

• Price Ranges:

  • Nov 14 Expiry: Expected $265-$280. Near-term support $260 (Put OI concentration), resistance $277 (near analyst PT).

  • Nov 21 Expiry: Potential wider range $260-$285 due to more time value.

• OI Signals:

  • High Call OI at $280 (8,709 contracts) reflects bullish sentiment.

  • Put OI concentrated at $270 (3,494 contracts), suggesting potential support.

# Options Strategy Reference #

• Sell Put Option: $AAPL 20251114 260.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: High liquidity, ITM probability only 18%, seller collects premium betting the stock stays above $260.

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$

# Key News Summary #

• Meta recently faced market concerns over heavy AI and Metaverse investments. Q3 revenue beat, but R&D expense ratio surged to 29.6% and Capex budget was raised to $72B, leading to plunging net income and a stock decline. French regulators alleged algorithm risks for job ad discrimination; Meta has objected. While analysts are long-term bullish on AI and smart glasses potential, near-term funding pressure weighs on the stock.

# Options Analysis #

• Market Sentiment & Volatility Expectations:

  • Implied Volatility 39.58% (above historical median), IV Percentile 64%, indicating options price in relatively high volatility expectations. Call/Put Ratio 2.04 shows bullish bias but with divergence.

• Expected Range:

  • 2025-11-14: $620-$655. Stock retreated ~30% from $738 high; near-term support $620-$630 (August low & November consolidation zone), resistance $650 (mid-point of October gap down).

  • 2025-11-07: Narrower range $610-$645 due to near-term expiry. OI Signals: Put OI concentrated at $630 (OI 12,736 contracts) – a break below could trigger stops; Call OI shows liquidity at $650 (OI 12,343 contracts), reflecting some bets on a bounce.

# Options Strategy Reference #

• Sell Put Option: $META 20251114 620.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: $620 is strong support, break probability 30.85%, attractive premium with IV 37.39%, suitable for capturing time value.

$Alphabet(GOOGL)$

# Key News Summary #

• Bond Issuance & Acquisition Progress: Alphabet increased its corporate bond issuance to $17.5B to fund AI & cloud businesses. Its $3.2B acquisition of cybersecurity firm Wiz is nearing US antitrust approval, expected 2026.

• Waymo Expansion: Self-driving subsidiary Waymo announced expansion to Detroit, San Diego, and Las Vegas by 2026, indicating potential commercialization acceleration.

# Options Analysis #

• Implied Volatility (IV) & Market Sentiment:

  • Current IV 35.26% (IV Percentile 59.2%) is above the 6-month average, indicating expected price swings. Call/Put Ratio (2.38) shows bullish bias, but block trades show institutions selling near-term OTM Calls (e.g., Nov 7 $307.5 Call), suggesting some view limited near-term upside.

• Expected Range:

  • Nov 14 Expiry: Expected range $275-$285. Key support $275 (Put OI concentration), resistance $285 (Call OI concentration).

  • Nov 21 Expiry: Wider range $270-$290, IV slightly lower at ~34%, reflecting time decay and reduced event risk.

• Key Levels:

  • Support $275: High Put OI + block sales of 12/5 $280 Puts suggest institutions see strong buying interest.

  • Resistance $290: Nov 14 $290 Call OI 4367 contracts – a break above could trigger short covering.

# Options Strategy Reference #

• Sell Put Option: $GOOGL 20251114 275.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: $275 is a strong support level, high liquidity, exercise probability 31.26%, Win Rate ≈68.74%. IV 32.12% offers noticeable time decay (Theta).

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

# Key News Summary #

• Strong Earnings but Pullback: Palantir Q3 adjusted EPS $0.21 (est. $0.17), commercial revenue grew 73% YoY, but the stock fell 7.94% to $190.74, reflecting profit-taking in high-flying AI stocks.

• Mixed Ratings: BofA reiterated "Buy," endorsing AI platform commercialization; Mizuho raised PT to $205 (from $165) but kept "Neutral," reflecting near-term valuation pressure.

# Options Analysis #

• Implied Volatility & Market Sentiment

  • Current IV 64.28% (vs HV ~30%), IV Percentile 37.6%, indicating options aren't significantly overpriced but market expects volatility. Call/Put Ratio 1.31 shows slight bullish bias.

• Price Range (as of 2025-11-05 Close $190.74)

  • Nov 07 Expiry: Expected range $180-$200. Post-earnings pullback testing $180 support (corresponding to high Put OI), resistance at $200 (Call OI concentration ~21,647 contracts).

  • Nov 21 Expiry: Expected range $175-$210. Wider range due to extended time value and expected IV decline.

• Key Levels

  • Support: $180 (October pullback low + peak Put OI)

  • Resistance: $200 (November 3 high + Call OI concentration)

# Options Strategy Reference #

• Sell Put Option: $PLTR 20251114 180.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: $180 is strong support, selling Put in high IV environment captures rich premium, Win Rate ~76.81% (ITM probability 23.19%).

  • Risk Warning: Near-term sentiment affected by tech valuation correction; recommend position size <5%.

$Alibaba(BABA)$

# Key News Summary #

• Alibaba stock fell 2% on Nov 4 to close at $164.3, with volume shrinking to 9.53M shares (55% below average daily volume). Market sentiment is affected by low near-term volume, but long-term focus remains on business fundamentals.

# Options Analysis #

• Implied Volatility (IV) & Market Sentiment

  • Current IV 51.26% (IV Percentile 66.8%) is higher than Historical Volatility (HV), indicating expectations for significant future price movement. Call/Put Ratio 3.47 indicates strong bullish bias.

• Expected Price Range

  • Nov 7 Expiry: Expected range $158-$175. Near-term technical support at $160 (Put OI concentration), resistance at $175 (high Call OI).

  • Nov 21 Expiry: Potential wider range $155-$180 due to extended time value.

# Options Strategy Reference #

• Sell Put Option: $BABA 20251114 152.5 PUT$ 

  • Logic: $160 is a strong support level, high IV provides attractive premium, Win Rate ≈84% (based on ITM probability 16%).