News and my thoughts from the past week (10Nov25)
Real-estate giant Blackstone is liquidating a major investment gone wrong: a $1.8 billion wager on senior housing that has saddled the firm with more than $600 million in losses. - WSJ
The 50-year mortgage is the triumph of debt over affordability. When the median age of home ownership is 40 years old, there is no retirement till 90.
Oracle’s 5-year Credit Default Swap spiked to 81 basis pts, the highest in 2 YEARS. Credit traders are buying protection against Oracle defaulting on its debt at the fastest pace since 2023. Can Oracle sustain its aggressive AI buildout? - X user Global Markets Investor
The Strippers have confirmed it. We are in a recession? - Yahoo News
“Leverage among hedge funds is the highest it has been since regulators started tracking the data more than a decade ago, a dynamic the Federal Reserve noted Friday as part of a broader set of vulnerabilities it is monitoring within the U.S. financial system.” The use of leverage over the past couple of years has increased across a range of strategies and supported significant positions in key markets, such as Treasury securities, interest rate derivatives, and equities,” the report said. - Barrons
Professional investors sold $5.1 BILLION in single tech stocks last week, near the most on RECORD. As a % of the technology sector’s market cap, this was the largest outflow since July 2023 and one of the biggest in 10 YEARS. - X user Global Markets Investor
Commercial Real Estate - Office CMBS Delinquency Rate jumps to 11.7%, the highest level in history - BarChart
Investors sold -$10.0 billion of US equities last week, marking their 6th weekly sale over the last 8. US single stocks saw near-record outflows at -$10.9 billion. This was driven by tech, which posted its largest outflow as a % of the sector’s market cap since July 2023. Institutional investors led the move, selling -$7.6 billion, the 2nd-largest outflow on record and the largest since September 2015. At the same time, retail investors bought +$800 million, marking their 4th consecutive weekly purchase. Retail remains very bullish. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
The number of US “zombie” companies is surging. The number of zombie companies in the Russell 3000 jumped +83 in October, to 639, the highest since December 2021. Zombie companies are firms that cannot generate enough profit to cover their interest payments and are staying afloat only through continued borrowing. Many of the firms that entered zombie status in October were in health care and biotech, sectors now struggling with soaring costs and declining federal support. To put this into perspective, the recent peak was 749 zombie firms in March 2021. Many small companies are struggling. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
Supply Chain News
Container shipping traffic from China to the US is in freefall. The cargo vessel count from China to the US has dropped to 41, the lowest since February 2024. The number of large cargo ships has declined by -30, or 42%, over the last 3 weeks. This is well below the average of ~60 over the last 18 months. As a result, total cargo volumes have HALVED to ~300,000 TEUs, where one TEU equals a standard shipping container, the lowest since at least January 2024. Combined cargo volumes from all major Asian exporters have also fallen to ~700,000 TEUs, the lowest since February 2024. U.S.-China trade is rapidly slowing. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
This is a high-frequency chart of the goods economy, and the index of the number of goods shipped through the US domestic economy. Down 15% YoY. - X user Craig Fuller
Freightwaves CEO Craig Fuller: “Well, we should be worried. The goods economy, certain portions of the goods economy are collapsing right now. So, year over year trucking volumes, this is really predominance of freight that moves across the United States, is down 17%”. “But when you look at the industrial sectors, or the the freight that moves over the long haul, this is energy, automotive, housing and manufacturing, we’re down 30% year over year, which is very great financial crisis, levels of concern.” - CNBC
Supply Chain is the blood of the economy, and is used to forecast the consumption of goods, especially.
Debts
We’re in a global debt crisis. To see that, don’t look at 30-year yields, which get pulled down by falling short-term yields. Look at 10y20y forward yields (red) that strip out short-term yields. Those are up everywhere and at alarming levels in places like Japan, UK and France. - X user Robin Brooks
Margin debt just hit $1.1 trillion highest in history.
US consumers are DEFAULTING at a CRISIS pace. Student loan SERIOUS (90+ days) delinquencies EXPLODED to 14.3% in Q3 2025, the highest on record. Auto loan delinquencies rose to 3.0%, the highest since 2010. Credit card delinquencies hit 7.1%, near the highest in 14 YEARS. - X user Global Markets Investor
Refinancing pressures compound the problem of fiscal management. By the end of 2025, about a third of marketable debt, worth US$9.2 trillion, would have matured, with a further US$9 trillion maturing in 2026. - Deloitte
US household debt surged +$197 BILLION in Q3 2025, to a record $18.59 trillion. This puts total household debt up +$642 billion over the last 12 months. The surge was driven by mortgage debt, which rose +$137 billion, to a record $13.07 trillion. Credit card debt climbed +$24 billion, to $1.23 trillion, an all-time high. Student loans jumped +$15 billion, to $1.65 trillion, also a record. Auto loans remained flat at $1.66 trillion but rose +$11 billion YoY. Americans are piling on debt at a rapid pace. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
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