Year-End Price Downgrades

A violent rebound on Friday, followed by a sharp short-squeeze surge on Monday – last week's series of coincidences led to a pullback.

However, institutions aren't viewing this pullback very positively. Significant sell call block trades have emerged for some stocks, with expiration dates at year-end. The strike prices suggest high volatility is expected from now until year-end:

• $AAPL 20251219 305.0 CALL$ 

• $SPY 20260116 700.0 CALL$ 

• $C 20251219 115.0 CALL$ 

• $GOOGL 20251219 335.0 CALL$ 

• $MSFT 20251219 575.0 CALL$ 

$NVIDIA Corp.(NVDA)$

• Expected to trade below $200 until mid-December: Block trade selling the $200 call $NVDA 20251212 200.0 CALL$  and hedging by buying the $220 call $NVDA 20251212 220.0 CALL$ .

• Reduced expectations for reaching $220 by year-end: Block trade closing the Dec 19th $220 call $NVDA 20251219 220.0 CALL$  and rolling into buying the Dec 12th $205 call $NVDA 20251212 205.0 CALL$ .

• Additionally, very far-dated sell call at $300: $NVDA 20280121 300.0 CALL$ 

• Extreme bearish positioning emerged due to Friday's sharp drop; needs further observation.

$Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.(AMD)$

• Stock price corrected significantly, dragged down by comments from OpenAI.

• The large block of bullish calls targeting $300 for Nov 21st saw substantial closing/unwinding on Friday $AMD 20251121 300.0 CALL$ .

• This week's bull call spread: Sell $AMD 20251114 250.0 CALL$  / Buy $AMD 20251114 260.0 CALL$ . Suggests the stock is expected to oscillate roughly between $220 and $260.

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$

• QQQ also seeing lowered year-end expectations: Block trade closing the $675 call $QQQ 20251219 675.0 CALL$  and rolling to sell the $645 call $QQQ 20251219 645.0 CALL$ . Implies an expected QQQ price below $645 by year-end.

$Alphabet Inc.(GOOGL)$

• A large sell call block trade emerged Friday for the $335 strike $GOOGL 20251219 335.0 CALL$ . This could be a naked short or covered write. Suggests an expected stock price below $335 by year-end.

• This week's bull call spread: Sell $290 call $GOOGL 20251114 290.0 CALL$  / Buy $292.5 call $GOOGL 20251114 292.5 CALL$ . Suggests the stock is expected to oscillate roughly between $270 and $290.

• Additionally, a large sell put block trade in GOOG: $GOOG 20251226 280.0 PUT$