Market Outlook of S&P500 (17Nov25)
Technical Indicators Overview
MACD Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is currently signaling a downtrend. This downward momentum suggests a potential weakening in the stock’s price movement and may indicate caution for traders monitoring short-term price action.
Moving Averages
The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are both trending upward, which is typically considered bullish for both short- and long-term perspectives. This uptrend points to a positive sentiment in the market. However, it is noteworthy that the most recent weekly candlestick has closed precisely on the 50-day moving average line. If the subsequent candlesticks in the coming week fall below this key level, it could introduce increased volatility and may be interpreted as a bearish signal for the short term.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)
On the daily chart, the three exponential moving averages (EMAs) have converged. This convergence often suggests a reversal from a previous bullish run, indicating that the upward momentum may be slowing or coming to an end.
Chaikin Money Flow
The Chaikin Money Flow indicator currently reads 0.06, which implies that buying momentum is greater than selling momentum. This supports the notion of continued interest from buyers in the market, despite other indicators suggesting caution.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
The CNN Fear & Greed Index, as of 14th November, shows 22, which indicates a state of extreme fear in the market. This current reading represents a deterioration compared to the previous closing figure, which was also categorised as extreme fear but slightly higher at 24.
A review of the index chart over the past year reveals a significant shift in market sentiment. The market has moved away from a period of extreme greed, which peaked around July 2025. In recent weeks, the index has hovered near the fear region, maintaining a level around 30 for the past two weeks.
This persistent atmosphere of fear is noteworthy, especially as it coincides with the upcoming release of important earnings reports and key market announcements. These developments should be closely monitored, as they have the potential to influence market sentiment and drive further volatility.\
Technical Analysis Overview
Upon review of the daily interval, technical indicators present a mixed outlook for the S&P 500. Out of 21 total indicators, 9 currently signal a “Buy” rating, while 12 suggest a “Sell” rating. This split highlights ongoing uncertainty in market sentiment.
Taking these signals into account, the combined technical analysis yields an overall “Sell” rating for the S&P 500. This assessment indicates that bearish momentum may be prevailing at present, and investors should exercise caution when considering positions in the index.
Candlestick Pattern Analysis
Of 25 patterns, 32% are bullish and 68% bearish, with bearish signals stronger in mid- to long-term trends — reliable patterns centre on bearish engulfings and three-candle formations. Recent signals are mixed, reflecting volatile chart moves. The August–September uptrend followed earlier bullish patterns, but recent pullbacks match bearish signals, likely due to profit-taking or external factors.
With the above, I lean towards a bearish outlook in the coming week.
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