Part 5 of 5 - my investing muse about layoffs, bankruptcy, closure, Trump, Epstein and more (17Nov25)

My Investing Muse (17Nov25)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

• CITADEL EMPLOYEES HAVE BEEN QUITTING ALL WEEK. PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER ARE REPORTING INSOLVENCY. - The PP Show

• Amazon lays off almost 700 NYC-based corporate employees - USA Today

• Paramount plans another 1,600 layoffs as David Ellison team digs in - LAT Entertainment

Ford’s CEO Jim Farley just dropped a stat that should make every politician sweat: 5,000 open mechanic jobs. 6-figure salaries. 0 takers. - Mario Nawfal

655 US large companies have gone bankrupt year-to-date, the highest number in 15 years. This has already surpassed all previous full-year totals since 2011, except for 2024. Since 2022, bankruptcies have risen nearly +100%. This comes as 68 companies filed in October, 66 in September, and 76 in August, the highest monthly reading in at least 6 years. Industrials have seen the highest number of bankruptcies in 2025, at 98, followed by consumer discretionary and healthcare, at 80 and 45, respectively. Corporate bankruptcies are running at a crisis pace. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

Currently, 71% of US consumers expect HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT over the next 12 months, the highest share since the 1980s recession peak. This is now even higher than during the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. - X user Global Markets Investor

Foreclosures are now up 20% from last year as Americans struggle to pay mortgages and rising costs. Meanwhile… the U.S. now has a record $13.1 trillion in mortgages. A wave of foreclosures and evictions is approaching. - X user Andrew Lokenauth

U.S. subprime auto loan delinquencies are their worst in 30+ years. Meanwhile... the U.S. now has a record $1.7 trillion in auto loans. Americans are drowning in debt. It’s an unsustainable path. - X user Andrew Lokenauth

TRUMP FIRES THOUSANDS, HIRES THOUSANDS... BUT DIFFERENT ONES - Trump’s administration has cut 300,000 federal jobs while hiring 50,000 new workers, mostly in immigration and national security. ICE got the biggest staffing boost, reflecting the administration’s top priorities. Meanwhile, agencies like the IRS, Health and Human Services, and even weather forecasting took major hits. Civil rights, clean energy, and food safety programs were gutted as part of the downsizing. 154,000 employees took buyouts to leave early. Federal HR chief Scott Kupor: “It’s about reshaping the workforce to focus on the priorities that we think are most important.” Source: Reuters

Layoffs in October were the highest since 2003. Amazon just announced 14,000 layoffs. UPS just announced 48,000 layoffs. Intel just announced 20,000 layoffs. But Ford has 5,000 open mechanic jobs with 6-figure salaries due to a shortage of skilled workers. - X user Andrew Lokenauth

US has most October layoffs in over 20 years on AI. Companies last month announced 153,074 job cuts, nearly triple the number during the same month last year and driven by the technology and warehousing sectors. - Herald Online

US job loss probability is at RECESSION levels: The perceived probability of job loss among US consumers hit 23% in November, the 3rd-highest since the FINANCIAL CRISIS peak. This is a 7 percentage points rise this year. The pessimism about the job market is EXTREMELY high. - X user Global Markets Investor

The unemployment rate for 20- to 24-year-olds in the US is 9.2%, the highest level since 2016, per YF.

Highest layoff announcements since 2008 and we still have 6 weeks to add more job losses. I guess my biggest question: Is this because of AI or a crappy economy? - X user QE Infinity

My Final Thoughts

Political & Legal Accountability

The week’s headlines have been dominated by the Jeffrey Epstein files and the ongoing efforts to release more information following a Senate vote. Suggestions regarding the involvement of political figures, including President Donald Trump, have emerged.

The core concern remains the pursuit of justice and accountability for the victims. The issue is viewed as transcending political party lines, with potential implications for both Republicans and Democrats who may have been involved or sought to protect themselves. The focus must be on evidence of criminal activity and ensuring that those responsible, regardless of their status as politicians, business leaders, or celebrities, are held accountable through the legal process.

Government Data Reliability

There is significant concern about the government’s delay in releasing key economic data, specifically labour and unemployment figures for October. While the government shutdown is cited as the reason for this delay, the absence of this data poses a challenge to the credibility and reliability of the U.S. as a global economic leader.

The international investment community, which holds trillions of dollars in U.S. assets, relies on timely and accurate economic indicators for investment decisions. The data delay risks raising unnecessary questions about the fundamental stability and accountability expected of a leading global economy. Timely disclosure is essential to maintain global investor confidence.

Financial Markets and NVIDIA Earnings

Market movement has recently been sideways, and investor focus is now heavily centred on the upcoming NVIDIA earnings report for a catalyst to break current resistance levels. Given NVIDIA’s pivotal role in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) ecosystem, the results and, crucially, the forward-looking guidance (outlook) are expected to drive market volatility.

The excessive concentration of market weight in a small number of large technology companies, often referred to as the “Magnificent Seven,” means that the performance and outlook of companies like NVIDIA inherently carry an outsized impact on the direction of the broader S&P 500 index.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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