The street is absolutely terrified ahead of Wednesday’s print.
NVDA already got smoked last week, down 7-10% from the $211 zone to around $190, on pure rotation + bubble fear + Peter Thiel dumping every single share + Michael Burry loading puts.
That sell-off was BRUTAL – $450 billion wiped out in a few days early November, another leg lower last week. But is it really the top? Or just the classic pre-earnings shakeout so institutions can load up cheaper? 🩸
Consensus numbers are monstrous Revenue ≈ $54.8B (up 56% YoY) EPS ≈ $1.25 (up 54% YoY) Data center expected to do ~$48-50B alone Blackwell ramp just starting, hyperscalers (Meta, Google, MSFT, Amazon) all raised capex AGAIN this quarter → screaming demand
Analysts are pounding the table Susquehanna → PT $230 BofA raised 2026/27/28 EPS estimates 3-14% Most calling for another “beat & raise” Options market pricing ±8-9% move → that’s ~±$300 BILLION in market cap swing in one night 😱
The $200 question (literally) Current price ~$190 Friday weeklies implying $170 or $210+ by Friday close If guidance shows Blackwell sold out into 2026 + China restrictions not hurting as bad as feared → $210-220 gap up possible If guidance even slightly soft → straight to $165-170 and Nasdaq gets obliterated
Sentiment check on X Bulls: “biggest shakeout before the biggest leg up” Bears: “Thiel & Burry know something, $5T valuation is insane” Vol traders: NDX-NDX vol spread at highest since August crash → someone is about to get wrecked
Bottom line This is the Super Bowl of earnings. NVDA has beaten estimates 18 straight quarters. Blackwell is the new H100/H200 rocket fuel. If Jensen delivers the goods again, we close above $210+ this Friday and AI trade comes roaring back. If he doesn’t… tech sell-off goes nuclear and $170 comes fast.
I’m personally long calls into the print. The risk/reward on a beat feels too good after the washout. See you on the other side. 🚀🪓
Who’s ready for the ±$300B fireworks show? 🎆
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