$NVDA$
Key News:
GMI Cloud Partnership: NVDA and GMI Cloud are building a $500 million AI factory in Taiwan, equipped with 7,000 GPUs, serving as a core node for AI infrastructure in Asia.
Anthropic Investment: NVDA plans to invest $10 billion in AI firm Anthropic, pushing its valuation to $350 billion and strengthening its position in generative AI.
Supercomputer Deployment: Japan’s RIKEN institute will deploy 2,140 NVDA Blackwell GPUs to build a next-gen AI/quantum computing system, expected to go live in 2026.
Market Sentiment & Stock Price: NVDA fell 4.69% over two days (closed at $181.36 on 11/18). Market focus is on Q3 earnings (expected after market close on 11/19) and supply chain bottlenecks.
Options Analysis:
Implied Volatility (IV): 58.89% (81.6th percentile), indicating expectations for sharp near-term moves.
This Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Expected range: $178–192. High IV and Put/Call Ratio of 1.8 reflect bullish bias amid multi-way positioning.
Next Week (Nov 21 Expiry): Expected range: $170–200. Time value widens range; a strong earnings beat could trigger a test of $200.
Call Concentration: 185/190/200 Calls show highest OI (61k–143k contracts), indicating bets on a rebound.
Put Concentration: 170/175 Puts hold 12k–17k contracts, suggesting support has shifted down to $170.
Technical Levels: Near-term support at $180 (recent low), resistance at $195–200 (congestion zone).
Strategy Ideas:
Sell Put (High Risk/Reward): $NVDA 20251128 170.0 PUT$
Premium: ~$3.70, OI: 12,761 (high liquidity)
Rationale: $170 is strong support, Probability of Profit (PoP) ≈77%, IV premium offers margin of safety.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $165 (9% below current price).Bull Call Spread (Earnings Rebound Bet):
Buy $NVDA 20251121 185.0 CALL$ ($6.60) + Sell $NVDA 20251121 200.0 CALL$ ($2.10)
Net Cost: $4.50, Max Profit: ~$10.50 (spread between 185–200)
Rationale: Bets on post-earnings rebound toward $195–200, Call OI cluster may add momentum.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $180.
Risk Note: IV may spike then drop around earnings; avoid naked deep OTM option buys—favor spreads or premium-selling strategies.
$AMD$
Key News:
AI Chip Momentum: BofA analysts believe AMD can capture ~10% of data center GPU market in 5 years (currently ~3–4%), with total AI chip market expected to exceed $400 billion.
Q1 2025 Earnings: Revenue of $7.44 billion (+36% YoY), Data Center segment +59% YoY. CEO Lisa Su targets >80% AI revenue CAGR, aiming for $34 billion by 2030.
Options Analysis:
Volatility & Sentiment: IV 64.04% (84th percentile), IV/HV ratio 1.00, indicating options price in near-term volatility risk. Put/Call Ratio 1.23 shows slight bullish tilt.
This Week (Nov 21 Expiry): Expected range: $215–250. Support at $230 (recent low), resistance at $245 (Put OI cluster).
Next Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Expected range: $200–260. Key support at $210 (block Put flow), resistance at $250 (Call OI concentration).
Call Interest: 250 Call (Nov 28) OI 17,306, reflecting upside bets.
Put Interest: 230 Put (Nov 21) OI 2,560, signaling clear support.
Strategy Ideas:
Sell Put: $AMD 20251121 230.0 PUT$
Rationale: OI 2,560 (decent liquidity), IV 61.18%, Probability of Profit 34.13%. If AMD holds $230, collect premium.
Stop: Close if stock breaks $220 (technical breakdown).Sell Put: $AMD 20251128 250.0 PUT$
Rationale: OI 5,399, IV 77.62%, Probability of Profit 47.62%. Bets on stabilization post-earnings.
Stop: Close if stock breaks $240 (resistance break fails).
Core Logic: Use high IV to sell premium; choose strikes with solid support; keep position size ≤5% of capital.
$INTC$
Key News:
New CIO Appointment: Intel named Cindy Stoddard as CIO (effective Dec 1), previously led global IT and cloud at Adobe—may accelerate digital transformation.
Data Center Dynamics: Coverage highlights Intel’s cooperation and competition with NVDA in data center chips, with Arm gradually eroding Intel’s share.
Fund Flows & Technicals: 3-day net outflows of $1.78 million, cost basis $20.34, stock recently down to $34.33 (–1.09%), approaching key support.
Options Analysis:
IV: 63.10% (63.6th percentile), above historical average, pricing in elevated near-term volatility.
Directional Bias: Put/Call Ratio 1.88 suggests near-term optimism but watch for pullback risk.
This Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Expected range: $34–36. $34 is Put OI cluster (OI 2,728), $35 Call OI 29,726 creates two-way flow; high IV supports breakout attempts.
Next Week (Dec 5 Expiry): Range may widen to $33–37. $35.5–36 Puts show OI 4,236; resistance at $37 Call (OI 26,594).
Support: $34 (weekly Put cluster), $33 (historical retracement low)
Resistance: $35 (Call OI peak), $37 (technical prior high)
Strategy Ideas:
Sell Put (Weekly): $INTC 20251128 34.0 PUT$
Rationale: $34 is dense support; selling Put captures time value in high IV; win rate ~72% per OI distribution.
Stop: Close if stock breaks $33.5 (support fails).Sell Put (Next Week): $INTC 20251205 33.0 PUT$
Rationale: $33 is strong support, OI 17,376 offers liquidity, PoP ~79%.
Stop: Close if stock breaks $32.5.
Risk Note: Negative news (e.g., data center order losses) could trigger breakdown—enforce strict stops.
$MU$
Key News:
No major fundamental news today, but investor forums show divided sentiment. MU hit a high of $260.58 before pulling back to close at $228.5 (–5.56% on 11/18). Some fear near-term correction, though structural super-cycle expectations in memory remain. Note: discussions reflect sentiment, not official information.
Options Analysis:
Volatility Expectations: IV 84.07% (98.4th percentile), above historical average, pricing in sharp moves. IV/HV 1.28 suggests near-term volatility may persist.
This Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Key support $220 (Put OI cluster), resistance $230 (high Call/Put OI). Expected range: $210–240. High IV leaves price vulnerable to sentiment swings.
Next Week (Dec 19 Expiry): Range expands; support $200–205, resistance $250. IV stays elevated—event risk may drive direction.
Call Pressure Zones: $230 (Dec Call OI 1,164), $250 (Call OI 8,809)
Put Protection Levels: $210 (Put OI 950), $200 (Put OI 1,542)
Strategy Ideas:
Sell Call: $MU 20251128 230.0 CALL$
Rationale: $230 is clear resistance; high IV offers rich premium; time decay favorable. OI 1,164 ensures liquidity.
Stop: Close if stock breaks above $240.Sell Put: $MU 20251219 210.0 PUT$
Rationale: $210 is dense support; Put OI 950; Probability of Profit 80.61%; market pessimism may be overdone.
Stop: Close if stock breaks $200.
Risk Control: High near-term volatility risk; keep position size ≤10%; avoid naked short options.
$ORCL$
Key News:
Rating Change: Baird cut Oracle target from $365 to $315, kept Outperform rating, reflecting near-term caution.
Debt Issuance: Oracle issued $18 billion in bonds in September, raising leverage concerns.
Accounting Questions: “Big Short” investor Burry accused Oracle of underreporting data center depreciation, potentially inflating profits—triggering credibility worries.
Market Dynamics: SoftBank cleared its Oracle position in Q3; AI cloud orders are growing but stock is down 36% from YTD high, showing divided sentiment.
Options Analysis:
IV: 69.75% (near all-time high), indicating expected turbulence.
This Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Expected range: $215–230. Puts at 200 & 215 show OI >20k; $215 is key psychological support.
Next Week (Dec 5 Expiry): Range may widen to $210–240; IV may ease but remains high; resistance clusters at $240 (Call OI concentration).
Technicals: Near-term support $215 (3-month low), resistance $235 (prior breakdown zone).
Institutional Dip-Buying: Jan 2026 195 Put saw 9,540 contracts sold, betting on long-term support.
Hedging Demand: 3548 lots of Nov 21 215 Put bought, suggesting short-term protection.
Strategy Ideas:
Sell Put: $ORCL 20251128 215.0 PUT$
Premium: $5.30, OI: 5,515 (good liquidity)
Logic: $215 is strong support; collect high premium amid elevated IV; break below 215 has ~28% probability.Bull Call Spread:
Buy $ORCL 20251128 220.0 CALL$ ($6.10) + Sell $ORCL 20251128 235.0 CALL$ ($1.28)
Net Cost: $4.82, Max Profit: $15 (if price ≥235 at expiry)
Logic: Bets on rebound toward $235 resistance; hedges against time decay and IV crush.
Risk Note: If earnings or sentiment worsen, set stop at stock below $210 or IV below 50%.
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