BTC’s Lead Signal Points to an S&P 500 Peak

TRIGGER TRADES
11-23

BTC has been the leading indicator for every major S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ peak going back to 2017.

Across cycles, Bitcoin has consistently topped 6–8 weeks before the S&P 500:

• 2017 → 2018

• 2021 → 2022

• 2025 → 2025

• 2025 → 2025 (projected repetition)

With BTC already down ~30% from its Oct 6 peak, the lead–lag structure looks like it may be repeating again.

SPX closed back above 6,585, reclaiming the multi-year trendline and avoiding a breakdown / false breakout.

Bulls bought themselves more time — but this level won’t hold forever.

Clock’s ticking.

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