The short-term count has changed. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ W4 setup is now invalid, which makes yesterday’s flush look more like W5.e than the start of a sustained rebound. From here, I’m watching for the 2nd/B-wave rally to keep pushing higher into the next bearish FVG resistance. 👀 That’s the area where I want to see bearish SMT divergence with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ start showing up. If that signal develops, the plan is simple: 🚨 Let the bounce extend 🎯 Watch the FVG resistance ⚠️ Look for bearish SMT 📉 Then sell the rally The larger structure hasn’t changed. The bounce may have more room to run first, but the bigger path still points LOWER. 🔻 Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowi

The post FOMC pop didn’t have much follow through. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ managed only a shallow rebound before sellers stepped back in and pushed price sharply lower. That keeps the short term structure leaning toward another leg down rather than a clean bullish reversal. For now, I’m treating the current rebound as W4. If that count holds, the bounce should remain below today’s high before W5 brings another move lower. 🔻 The key levels are pretty clear: ⚠️ Above 7632: the immediate W4/W5 setup is invalidated. 🚦 Daily close above 7637: that would shift the setup into a more bullish posture. Until either level is reclaimed, I’m treating rallies as opportunities to sell rather than chasing strength. The next move matters more than the noise around the

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The selloff has delivered the W5 leg lower, and now the setup is starting to look a little different. 👀 Bullish SMT against $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is giving the S&P 500 room for a corrective bounce into the FOMC. I’d expect the first move to stay fairly modest, with 7650–7700 as the initial zone to watch. But I’m not treating that bounce as a trend change. ⚠️ The bigger picture still looks vulnerable. If $SPX reaches that 7650–7700 area, I’d be watching closely for the relief move to run out of steam and sellers to step back in. So for now: 📈 W5 downside leg appears in place 🔄 Bullish SMT supports a corrective rebound 🎯 First bounce zone: 7650–7700 ⚠️ FOMC could provide the catalyst 📉 An

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Friday’s high is the line in the sand. 🔴 Stay below Friday’s high The bearish count remains valid, and I’m looking for W5 lower into FOMC. 🟢 Break above Friday’s high The decline starts looking more like a 3-wave move, which would favor a deeper retracement toward the 61.8% level. There’s another warning for bulls 👀 The bearish SMT at Friday’s high increases the odds of an early pullback Monday. My lean remains simple: W5 lower first. I’ll let price action decide what comes next. 🎯 The Fed meeting is coming, so I’m watching the level, not chasing the noise. When markets keep you watching, knowing when to switch off matters too. A strong U.S. jobs report has put rates back in focus, with this week’s CPI data set to be another ke

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ is getting very close to the downside zone I’ve been watching. 🎯 7570–7550 remains the target. Until price actually reaches that area, I’m still treating rallies as opportunities to sell rather than chasing a reversal. After four straight down sessions, tomorrow’s CPI could make things interesting. 👀 A strong bounce on the data wouldn’t automatically change my bearish view. It could simply create one more bull trap before the next leg lower. If we get that bounce, I’ll be watching the fresh bearish FVG for rejection, especially while $SPX stays below the 50% retracement of W3. 📉 Below that level, the bearish structure remains intact. If buyers fail to produce a meaningful rebound, this consolidation could simply resolve lower a

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ SELL SIGNAL TRIGGERED. 🚨 The Daily FVG support has officially failed, and the close below 7681 gives us the confirmation I was waiting for. That level was the line in the sand. Once 7681 broke, the bullish FVG flipped into an iFVG and the bearish setup became active. Now I’m looking for the downside to develop rather than trying to chase another push higher. 🎯 First measured-move target: 7570–7550 That’s the immediate zone I’m watching. But honestly, I’m more interested in what happens after we get there. If momentum continues to build, this could be much bigger than a simple pullback. I’m leaning toward this being the beginning of a larger BEARISH W3 DECLINE. 🐻 The key reference now is last week’s high. As long as price remain

Back in June, I was looking for one final W5 push higher before the larger cycle correction. We got it. Now the picture is changing. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is starting to reverse, while the bearish SMT with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ remains intact. More importantly, I can now count the advance in multiple ways that point to the same conclusion: The rally may be complete. That shifts my focus completely. I’m no longer looking for the next breakout. I’m watching for the reset. 🎯 Target zone: 7,200–6,900 📉 Potential correction: roughly 8–10% ⏳ Time frame: the next couple of months The interesting part is that this setup is developing as the broader market enters a much more uncertain September. Rising yields, inflation

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ just printed the bearish SMT I’ve been waiting for. But I’m still not shorting blindly. The divergence is the warning.The daily close below 7681 is the confirmation. Today’s pullback also created a new bullish Daily FVG, which gives us a very clean line in the sand. If $SPX closes below 7681, that FVG flips into an iFVG and I’ll treat it as the trigger for the next move lower. That would change the structure from: bearish divergence → pullback → potential continuation to: bearish divergence → FVG failure → confirmed downside expansion. But there’s still a bullish path. If the FVG holds, sellers haven’t taken control yet. $SPX could still push back above last week’s high and sweep the highs before the larger reversal begins. So

I’m still leaning bullish on $S&P 500(.SPX)$ for now. The key reason is the relative strength against $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ . The bullish SMT remains in place, and more importantly, we still haven’t seen the bearish divergence at the highs that would make me comfortable taking the short. That’s the signal I’m waiting for. 🎯 If $SPX pushes through last week’s high around 7770, but $NDX or $DJI fails to confirm the breakout, the picture changes quickly. That would give us the bearish SMT I’m looking for — and that’s when I’ll start hunting for the short. 🔻 Until that happens, I’m not interested in forcing a bearish trade. Let $SPX prove the reversal first. 👀 For now, the bias stays higher. 📈

Good morning! ☕️ The relief bounce showed up exactly where it needed to. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ held yesterday’s low, then pushed straight into the bearish Daily FVG. That’s a strong bounce on the chart, but the location matters more than the bounce itself. 👀 There’s also a bullish SMT against $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , which is helping support the reversal for now. So yes, $SPX could push a little deeper into the FVG before making its next decision. But my bias hasn’t changed. I still expect this rally to get sold into resistance. 🔑 The level I’m watching: A daily close above 7,701 would change the picture and signal a more meaningful bullish move with room for a deeper retracement. Until that happens, I’m treating

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ sell signal played out. Targets were hit. Now today’s low becomes the key level to watch. 👀 If it holds, I’m looking for a relief bounce first, with the Daily FVG resistance as the initial area to watch. But if today’s low breaks, that could be the trigger for W3 to start expanding lower. Either way, I don’t think the bigger picture changes much. A hold could give us a bounce. A break could accelerate the downside. But once that bounce or breakdown resolves, the setup still favors lower. So for me, today isn’t really about guessing the direction. It’s about watching the low. Hold it → bounce first. Lose it → W3 lower. Either path keeps the downside bias in play. 📉

The multi-month divergence has returned, and it’s becoming one of the key setups I’m watching right now. While $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ and $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2609(YMmain)$ pushed well above their June highs, $NQ Minerals PLC(NQMIY)$ remains significantly below its June peak. That disconnect matters. Now all three major futures indices are pulling back, bringing back a setup that previously preceded the correction earlier this year. ⚠️ 📊 The Divergence $ES and $YM managed to make fresh highs while $NQ failed to confirm. When one major index repeatedly lags while the others continue higher, it can signal that market breadth and lead

Hey Tigers 🐯 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ pushed into the key sell zone and was rejected, keeping the short-term bearish setup intact. The rebound retraced roughly 78.6% of the previous five-wave decline before forming a three-wave recovery into the Daily FVG resistance. Price has now reacted from that zone, leaving the bounce looking corrective rather than impulsive. The key level from here is 7,690. 📍 Daily close below 7,690 → bearish trigger If that level breaks on a closing basis, the setup points toward another leg lower, with the prior June all-time high acting as the first major downside reference. There is still room for one more push higher. The 7,750–7,775 area remains the main resistance zone, and another test could develop before sellers take c

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounced, but the rally may be running into resistance. 📈 Price is moving higher within the 2/B-wave rebound, with the Daily FVG now serving as the next upside target. ⚠️ That zone is expected to cap the recovery. If resistance holds, the rebound could give way to the next leg lower, continuing the bearish 5-wave decline from the recent peak. The key level to watch is 7750. 🔴 Below 7750: bearish structure remains intact 🟡 At the Daily FVG: watch for the rally to stall 🟢 A close above 7750: first warning that the bearish setup may be losing control

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounce is here, just as expected. But there is still NO bullish SMT supporting a sustained reversal, so I’m treating the recent move as a relief bounce within a broader bearish structure. 🔻 What I’m Watching The bearish 5-wave decline now appears largely in place, which favors a relief bounce next. The open gap at 7629 sits just below and could be tagged first to complete W5. If $SPX breaks above today’s high, that would strengthen the case that the 2/B-wave bounce is getting underway. 🎯 Key Resistance The Daily FVG at 7714–7776 remains the main resistance zone. A rejection there → W3 lower becomes the preferred scenario. ⚠️ The Bigger Confirmation 7566 remains the key higher-degree level. Break below 7566 → the larger 10–15% c

👋 Good morning, tigers! The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounce is here, but I’m still not seeing the bullish SMT needed to support a sustained reversal. For now, I’m treating last week’s ABC decline as a bearish Wave 1 (W1). That makes the current rebound potentially a Wave 2 correction, rather than the start of a new uptrend. 🎯 Key level: 7,714–7,776 This Daily FVG is the zone I’m watching closely for W2 resistance. If $SPX pushes into this range and gets rejected, the next move I’m looking for is W3 lower. ⚠️ The bigger confirmation level is 7,566. A decisive break below 7,566 would strengthen the larger bearish thesis and suggest that a 10–15% correction is underway. The setup is simple: Bounce → test 7,714–7,776 → rejection → W3 lower. Until bullish S

Good morning, tigers! ☀️ The bullish SMT divergence on $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is now gone. That was the last major piece of confluence supporting the immediate bounce scenario. With that signal invalidated, the near-term bias shifts back to the downside. 📉 🎯 First: Lower Prices I’m looking for $NDX to move lower first, with the next focus on the previously identified equality targets. I don’t want to chase the initial selloff, though. The better setup may come after the first leg lower. 🔄 Then: Wait for Wave 2 Once those downside targets are reached, I’ll be watching for a corrective bounce — Wave 2. That rebound is the move I’m most interested in. Lower first → Wave 2 bounce → Look for the short. 🎯 A corrective rally would give the market room to res