TRIGGER TRADES
TRIGGER TRADES
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$SPX rallied strongly from the support zone

$.SPX(.SPX)$ rallied strongly from the support zone, but produced a 5-wave decline from the high.Therefore, this rally is expected to be sold for another modest leg down to around 5800 to complete Wave B with resistance at 6000-6040, if it is not already complete.As long as price does not tick below the [W2]/[W4] trendline, one final high for Wave C is expected. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2503(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2503(NQmain)$ ImageImage
$SPX rallied strongly from the support zone
avatarTRIGGER TRADES
12-20 21:56

This $SPX decline looks corrective from the high

This $.SPX(.SPX)$ decline looks corrective from the high, and I can only count 5-waves up from the August low to mark the completion of the newly labeled Wave A under [W5]Therefore, leaning this decline gets bought above the [W2]/[W4] trendine, 5730, with support at 5867-5805 for Wave B.We could see price form a zigzag or even a triangle for Wave B, but a new high is expected to be made in 1-2 months.However, a cross below the [W2]/[W4] trendline would invalidate this and confirm that the top is already in. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2503(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$
This $SPX decline looks corrective from the high

A strong case can be made that the $SPX top is in

With today’s decline, a strong case can be made that the $.SPX(.SPX)$ top is in.However, a cross of the [W2]/[W4] trendline, currently at 5730, is needed to confirm this with maximum confidence.Given the failure to make the fractal high to complete the wave structure, there’s concern that the [W5] rally may still be progressing.I’m open to the possibility of one final high if we remain above the [W2]/[W4] trendline, with potential support at 5867-5800.That said, a failure to quickly recover would increase the likelihood that today’s decline isn’t corrective. While I lean towards $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ and $.DJI(.DJI)$ topping, I’m not certain about SPX an
A strong case can be made that the $SPX top is in

The $SPX 4th wave triangle is on the cusp of completion

The $.SPX(.SPX)$ 4th wave triangle is on the cusp of completion — if it's not complete already.If so, the last leg of the 15-year rally is expected to begin imminently to ultimately target 6150-6200 - potentially charged by FOMC Wednesday.However, once the 5th wave reaches its peak, expect the tides to shift dramatically as the bear market correction takes hold.If the triangle fails, 6030-6003 is secondary support for the 4th wave.$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2503(ESmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$
The $SPX 4th wave triangle is on the cusp of completion

$SPX for the final 5th wave rally targeting 6150-6200

The next and final trend leg is up for the 5th wave, but $.SPX(.SPX)$ may either form a triangle ▷ or see one last quick dip to 6020-6003 to complete the 4th wave first.Leaning towards the triangle scenario, but either way, the 4th wave should finish very soon, setting the stage for the final 5th wave rally targeting 6150-6200. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ ImageImage
$SPX for the final 5th wave rally targeting 6150-6200

$SPX - The dips should get bought to target the 6150-6200 range

With $.SPX(.SPX)$ gapping up strongly, it is favored the 4th wave is complete & we are in the midst of the FINAL 5th of Wave C of [W5] of Wave 5 rally.Therefore, the dips should get bought to target the 6150-6200 range - potentially by FOMC on Dec. 18. Support is at 6075 with the loss of 6050 sending a warning we still have another leg down to 6035-6003 support to then complete the 4th. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQma
$SPX - The dips should get bought to target the 6150-6200 range

$SPX is 100% on track to complete the monumental rallies

Despite the initial misstep in timing, $.SPX(.SPX)$ is still 100% on track to complete the monumental rallies from both the 2022 and 2009 lows, setting the stage for the powerful, multi-year bear market decline that we’ve all been anticipating.What we need now is a final 5-wave climb from the 11/04 low to fully retrace the impulse and wrap up Wave C of the larger [W5] within the Wave 5 ending diagonal. We’re so close to the finish line, as this can occur within weeks![W5] is projected to top out between 6175-6250, with confluence at every turn—the 50% extension of [W1]+[W3], the 61.8% extension of [W3], and the upper boundary of converging trendlines all pointing to this crucial level.A break below the [W2]/[W4] trendline will be the moment that c
$SPX is 100% on track to complete the monumental rallies

$SPX is either in the fractal or larger 4th wave position

$.SPX(.SPX)$ is either in the fractal or larger 4th wave position.If it remains above 6072, the fractal 4th triangle is favored to immediately burst higher targeting 6125-6140 to complete the larger 3rd.However, below 6072 would favor the larger 4th playing out targeting 6035-6003 before the final 5th wave rally. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$ ImageImage
$SPX is either in the fractal or larger 4th wave position

$SPX completed the fractal 3rd of the larger 3rd, and should dip to 6063-6052 support

$.SPX(.SPX)$ completed the fractal 3rd of the larger 3rd, and should dip to 6063-6052 support.If so, that should be bought to take price to 6125-6140 to terminate the final 3rd wave under Wave C before the 4th wave pullback charged by CPI on 12/11 (?).Anticipating a melt up for the grand finale until those targets are reached, so dips are expected to be bought rapidly for now. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$ Image
$SPX completed the fractal 3rd of the larger 3rd, and should dip to 6063-6052 support

SPX Forecast: Upside 6140, End 6200-6250

$.SPX(.SPX)$ With todays burst and incomplete wave count, it is favored that the 3rd still has upside to 6140.However, a fractal pullback is likely with the 6063 area to act as support to reach that target.With the additional upside, it is more likely [W5] of Wave 5 ultimately extends to 6200-6250 around the end of the year. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$ ImageImage
SPX Forecast: Upside 6140, End 6200-6250

$SPX is slowly grinding higher

$.SPX(.SPX)$ is slowly grinding higher, hinting that the 3rd wave under Wave C is nearly, if not already, complete.A break below 6020 would be a strong signal that the 3rd wave has ended, paving the way for a 38.2-50% retracement, currently measuring to the 5977-5955 range.If this plays out, the 4th wave is expected to be bought before the final surge to complete this 15-year rally. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$
$SPX is slowly grinding higher

SPX is at the brink of the climax of this 15-year bull run

The countdown is on! We're at the brink of the climax of this 15-year bull run, and the top is expected in just 1-2 weeks in the 6080-6100 range! $.SPX(.SPX)$ is just a slow, shallow 3/4/5 wave sequence to trace out every wave from the one-minute to the monthly chart, validating the potential of this top.I'm looking at a modest final push before the bear market begins. This is the last stretch — the final waves are aligning for that decisive top, and once it prints, the market will turn swiftly. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$
SPX is at the brink of the climax of this 15-year bull run

$ES crossed 6053 as expected

$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ crossed 6053 as expected, and now realigns with $.SPX(.SPX)$ with both being the in the modest 3rd wave under Wave C.Watch for a 4th wave pullback over the next few sessions to 5970-5950 to then be bought for the FINAL 5th of Wave C of [W5] of Wave 5 ultimately to 6080-6100. With new data, the top looks more likely to occur within the next 1-2 weeks (CPI Dec. 11?). Get ready ! $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Image
$ES crossed 6053 as expected

$ES to 6100-6120, Bear Market Next

Since $.SPX(.SPX)$ has already made a new high, $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ has a very high probability of crossing its respective high (6053) as well.Overall, I expect the dips to continue being bought, as we are in the midst of a modest 3rd wave within Wave C, which should ultimately target $ES 6100-6120 before topping. Afterward, ES_F should then target the lower trendline to begin the bear market. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$
$ES to 6100-6120, Bear Market Next

$SPX made a new high, but the topping pattern has not wavered

$.SPX(.SPX)$ made a new high, but confidence in the topping pattern has not wavered. The multi-year bear market reversal is delayed by 1-2 months and should target the 6080-6100 range before the topping setup returns, as SPX needs to retrace a 5-wave move to finish Wave C of [W5] of Wave [5]. For now, expect price to remain above 5920-5937 until we trace out 5-waves up from the November low to those targets.I’m excited for what’s unfolding—this little detour will only strengthen the probability of the bearish pattern. The world will soon be shaken. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$
$SPX made a new high, but the topping pattern has not wavered

$SPX bearish 3rd wave setup remains intact

Despite the chop, the $.SPX(.SPX)$ bearish 3rd wave setup remains intact.To maintain full confidence in reaching the 5800-5700-5630 targets, we need to see a sharp reversal lower within the next day or two.A loss of 5930 would increase confidence in this scenario, but a Daily close above $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ 5992 would begin to threaten the possibility of new highs being crossed. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini
$SPX bearish 3rd wave setup remains intact

$SPX is fighting for its life, but the 3rd wave decline is inevitable

$.SPX(.SPX)$ is fighting for its life, but the 3rd wave decline is inevitable.Despite the rally, the price action resembles a bearish WXY model for the 2nd wave. Due to the complexity, it is possible the 2nd is already complete or will do so at 5980.The loss of 5920 would boost confidence - that should lead to targeting 5800-5700-5630.Overall, looking lower against 6017, but above 5980 would reduce confidence - barring a sharp reversal following.$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$
$SPX is fighting for its life, but the 3rd wave decline is inevitable

$SPX is set up for a SHARP 3rd wave flush

$.SPX(.SPX)$ is set up for a SHARP 3rd wave flush.Price completed its bearish WXY model for its 2nd wave at close or will do so at 5930-5950 - with the loss of 5890 increasing odds.If so, the 3rd wave should target at least 5820 with downside to 5775-5700-5630 (Weekly FVG)Above 5960 would shake confidence, but the overall outlook remains firmly lower against 6017. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$ ImageImage
$SPX is set up for a SHARP 3rd wave flush

$SPX now holds a more bearish pattern

$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ followed through with the 4th wave pattern declining 80 points, but SPX did not.However, $.SPX(.SPX)$ now holds a more bearish pattern - forming a WXY model for a 2nd wave. If we trade below 5890 the WXY model will confirm.Therefore, price has potential to enter a powerful 3/4/5 wave sequence targeting the Weekly FVG at 5700-5630 directly.If we do not trade below 5890 to confirm the WXY model, there is risk for further rally to 5955.ImageImage $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$
$SPX now holds a more bearish pattern

$SPX has now retraced 50% of the Wave C rally

$.SPX(.SPX)$ has now retraced 50% of the Wave C rally thus bolstering confidence [W5] of Wave 5 is complete.In the short term, the next bounce is expected to be sold for a 4th around 5890-5912 to decline for a 5th as long as we remain below the 50% of the 3rd, currently at 5930.Overall, we should continue selling until the Weekly FVG at 5700-5630. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$ ImageImageFrom the SPX peak, I aler
$SPX has now retraced 50% of the Wave C rally

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