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TRIGGER TRADES
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04-13 07:08

$SPX B Wave Strength May Be Setting Up a Bigger Move

Deep retracements lead to extended waves. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ just retraced 78.6% of the decline. Bulls see strength. I see a B-Wave loading the SPRING. The deeper B goes — the longer C tends to run. Primary targets: 110% → primary 127.2% → high probability 161.8% → extension in play The channel is drawn. The count is set. A 161.8% C-Wave would MIRROR the 2025 extension. History doesn’t repeat. It extends. And every time $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ tags the upper channel stretching back to the 2009 bottom — It gets REJECTED. 2011. 2014. 2018. 2022. 2025. Five touches. Five rejections. Zero exceptions. You know what follows every single one? Mean reversion to the channel midpoint - at MINIMUM. 2026 ju
$SPX B Wave Strength May Be Setting Up a Bigger Move
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04-12 10:47

$SPY at Extremes: Every Prior Touch Triggered a Pullback

Every time $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ tags the upper channel stretching back to the 2009 bottom — It gets REJECTED. 2011. 2014. 2018. 2022. 2025. Five touches. Five rejections. Zero exceptions. You know what follows every single one? Mean reversion to the channel midpoint - at MINIMUM. 2026 just became touch #6. Number six won't be different. Blaming Elliott Wave is like blaming technical analysis for a bad trade. The framework didn't fail — the PRACTITIONER did. Almost everyone is awful at it. But the one time they apply it CORRECTLY, at the right time? They're not reading charts anymore. They're holding a crystal ball. One taste of that precision and you're HOOKED.
$SPY at Extremes: Every Prior Touch Triggered a Pullback
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04-11 14:42

$NDX Breaks High Alone While $SPX $DJI Lag

The bearish reversal has been building. Just one piece was missing... Today we got it. Bearish Monthly SMT Divergence with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ . NDX is the ONLY index to cross the March High. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ didn't. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ didn't. If this divergence persists — this Monthly candle gets ERASED. The setup just got a lot more complete. This is what SMT divergence looks like on the micro. SMT at the high of day with $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ . Reversal to London Low. 20 straight points — on a choppy range day. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ is down -33%. NDX just rip
$NDX Breaks High Alone While $SPX $DJI Lag

Do or Die for $SPX

Do or Die for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . $SPX has officially traced out a valid 3-wave structure → equal in length of the initial leg up. If another leg down is coming, this is the spot. CPI is the catalyst. Plain and simple. Daily close below 6618 → higher degree sell signal fires. Any peak-to-trough decline of 2.05% or more marks the largest pullback of the rally off the lows — the earliest tell the advance is complete. Sustained rally/close above 6855 (78.6% retrace) would be a bullish warning. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$
Do or Die for $SPX

“Sell the News” Setup Builds as SPX Completes B-Wave Rally

Sell the news. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ paused exactly where it should. Daily FVG resistance. A = C equality. Still inside the corrective channel. This is a B-Wave rally → another leg down is loading. Tomorrow is a digestion day into CPI. Friday is when this rally gets SOLD. The bullish Daily FVG is already in place to invert. → An inversion sends the higher degree SELL SIGNAL. Next: $SPY forms a bullish Daily FVG on this push. Inversion of that gap = sell signal for the next wave down. → Catalyst: CPI Friday. Leaning sell-the-news ~ pending confirmation. New levels. Same outcome.
“Sell the News” Setup Builds as SPX Completes B-Wave Rally

ES Extends C-Wave, But Bearish Continuation Remains Intact

$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ | Yesterday's first downside trigger didn't fire. Instead, price expanded the C-Wave into resistance: Equality (A=C), 61.8% retrace, & Daily FVG. 5 waves down. 3 waves up. STILL corrective. → Next: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ forms a bullish Daily FVG on this push. Inversion of that gap = sell signal for the next wave down. → Catalyst: CPI Friday. Leaning sell-the-news ~ pending confirmation. New levels. Same outcome. The current $SPY bounce is the largest % rally since the 696 peak. That means price is correcting at a higher degree, which means the next wave down will also be higher degree. Whether this labels as a 2 or B wave, what follows is a 3rd o
ES Extends C-Wave, But Bearish Continuation Remains Intact

When 161.8% Isn’t Corrective: SPX Confirms Impulsive Structure

EW 2.0 | (-) WXY Model $S&P 500(.SPX)$ traced out a (3-3-3) pattern — but the 2nd leg down extended 161.8%+ of the 1st, making it likely a 3rd wave, not a Y-wave. That distinction MATTERS. A 3rd wave extending 161.8% inside a (3-3-3) favors an IMPULSIVE move — not a corrective sequence. Which meant the 50% retracement of that 3rd/Y-wave became the line in the sand. Why the 50% retrace? Break above it → 4th wave INVALIDATED and structure relabels as a bullish WXY ~ meaning the decline was corrective, not impulsive Hold below it → bearish CONTINUATION, 5th wave coming. Price held below. M15 FVG + bearish SMT stacked as confluence for the 4th wave. Minutes later — price resolved sharply lower. 5th wave hit the 5=1 ratio EXACTLY before reversing.
When 161.8% Isn’t Corrective: SPX Confirms Impulsive Structure

$SPX / $SPY at 200-DMA Resistance, Next Leg Down Approaching

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ bearish 5-down, 3-up — into the 200-DMA + Daily FVG resistance. Textbook corrective rally. Today's peak likely terminated the B-Wave bounce — or is about to. Daily close below 6512 = first confirmation the next higher-degree wave down has begun. CPI Friday pre-market — price may set up into the print before the real move accelerates. This rally gets SOLD. The current $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ bounce is the largest % rally since the 696 peak. That means price is correcting at a higher degree, which means the next wave down will also be higher degree. Whether this labels as a 2 or B wave, what follows is a 3rd or C — neither is friendly. The bigger the bounce, the BIGGER the drop.
$SPX / $SPY at 200-DMA Resistance, Next Leg Down Approaching

$NDX Tests 200DMA Rejection Zone as W5 Downside Targets 22,400

$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ W5 is LOADING. W4 bounce is coiling into the Daily FVG at 24,267–24,721. 200-DMA sitting right there too. That's the rejection zone. Above 24,510 and I reassess. Below it — W5 decline is on NEXT. Downside target: Monthly FVG at 22,400 Bearish SMT w/ $DJI still active at the March 23 high. That divergence holds — this bounce gets sold HARD. You've been warned. This will change how you use Elliott Wave. EW 2.0 is now MECHANICAL: ↳ Detects 3rd waves ↳ Locks in the W4 high-probability zone ↳ Projects W5 targets automatically No reinterpretation. No moving the goalposts. No manual counting. The cornerstone of Elliott Wave 2.0 — and the best Elliott Wave indicator ever built. It's not close. Just a repeatable framework you can actually
$NDX Tests 200DMA Rejection Zone as W5 Downside Targets 22,400

NFP Fades, $SPX Still Faces 200-DMA Rejection Risk Ahead of CPI

NFP was a dud. Monday still could give us the 200-DMA rejection — that door isn't closed. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ But a quiet day on Monday puts CPI Friday on deck as the catalyst for the next wave down. Corrections don't always fall clean. The largest ones make you wait — building energy for the next move. My projection reflects that. As I wrote yesterday: SPX pulled back to the bullish Daily FVG at 6554–6427 and bounced sharply — as warned. Price is set for a push into the 200-DMA near 6650 to complete the correction. Then the next wave down begins. NFP drops tomorrow with markets closed. Monday re-open could be the catalyst if we pop. If $ES closes below its Dai
NFP Fades, $SPX Still Faces 200-DMA Rejection Risk Ahead of CPI

Relief Rally or Bull Trap? $SPX Eyes 200-DMA as $ESmain Breakdown Looms

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ pulled back to the bullish Daily FVG at 6554–6427 and bounced sharply — as warned. Price is set for a push into the 200-DMA near 6650 to complete the correction. Then the next wave down begins. NFP drops tomorrow with markets closed. Monday re-open could be the catalyst if we pop. If $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ closes below its Daily FVG (6481), the wave down triggers early. Either way — this rally gets SOLD. 6178 is still the destination. Projection provided. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ delivered. Members caught the move in real time. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a tradin
Relief Rally or Bull Trap? $SPX Eyes 200-DMA as $ESmain Breakdown Looms

$SPY 5 Wave Decline Signals Another Leg Lower Ahead

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ produced a bearish 5-wave decline from the highs. That structure DEMANDS another leg lower. We've now retraced ~30% of the overall decline and are inside Daily FVG resistance at 6454–6568. Expect price to cross the 2/4 trendline near 6550 — then the next wave down toward 6178 sets up. This rally will get sold HARD. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ should not close above 6568. Warnings were sent. We were leaning for a rally back to the PDH. 5-wave down with bullish SMT (YM). $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ delivered. $ES +230 handles since. Bull trap. As warned. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a t
$SPY 5 Wave Decline Signals Another Leg Lower Ahead

$SPX Roadmap: 2026 Correction, AI-Fueled Melt-Up, Post-2030 Crash

This is the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ official roadmap for the next 5 years. Read this carefully. Stage 1: 20% Correction. (2026) Stage 2: Blow-off top to 10,000. (2026–2030) Stage 3: Worst crash in stock market history. (2030+) This correction is the last great buying opportunity of the DECADE. The blow-off top hasn't happened yet. AI mania will fuel the last leg to 10,000. Then the bubble POPS. Here's what you do: Stack cash on this correction. Ride the blow-off top. Get out before 2030. When I call the bottom — YOU BUY. When I call the top — YOU SELL. By the time people realize I was right all along, it will be too late. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG
$SPX Roadmap: 2026 Correction, AI-Fueled Melt-Up, Post-2030 Crash

$SPX Rally Trap Incoming? 6454–6568 Is the Ceiling

W5 targets have been met ✅ While the 5-waves down calls for an upside retracement, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has formed Daily FVG resistance at 6454–6568. That FVG is expected to CAP any rally. Mondays have been bullish — but I expect any bounce to stay shallow and get rejected at 6454–6568 to produce another leg down. ALT: If we see more downside Monday/fail to rally, this would be favored as a W3 — not a W5 — meaning price continues declining directly to the Monthly FVG at 6178. There is also no longer a bullish SMT divergence with $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ , which would have warned of a larger bounce. We don't have that now. Sometimes I amaze myself. Last night's plan called for the
$SPX Rally Trap Incoming? 6454–6568 Is the Ceiling

$SPX $META Bearish Divergence Points to W5 Downside

I'm most known for my $S&P 500(.SPX)$ analysis. But you have NO IDEA what I can do when I branch out. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ — I warned members this was heading to 550–530 when it was still above 600. Now it's at 547 and the targets are being delivered. Imagine what you're missing on the other tickers. SPX, META, it doesn't matter. The EW 2.0 framework works on everything. Despite today's rally, the bear case actually got STRONGER. Bearish SMT divergence with $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ at today's high. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has resolved its sideways chop into a potential W4 triangle — complete A-B-C-D-E structure. Lean: W
$SPX $META Bearish Divergence Points to W5 Downside

$SPX Dead Cat Bounce? Rejection Signals Next Leg Lower

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ rallied straight into Daily FVG resistance (6594–6622) + the 200-DMA and rejected BOTH. Looks like a dead cat. Lean: W4 completed at today's 6651 high. W5 down next -> targeting 6465–6420. Invalidation: close above 6622 and/or cross of today's high. Bears still in control. ALT scenario worth respecting — Above today's 6651 high invalidates the immediate W5 decline. Invalidation sits just above current price — tight margins. That opens the door to a larger 2nd/B-Wave rally targeting the next Daily FVG at 6636–6710. Two scenarios, but levels are defined. Chat had a day today. Caught the afternoon fade. Called the bearish ABC at the top. Flagged the H1 FVG target before the drop. Members were ready. For SG users only, Welcome t
$SPX Dead Cat Bounce? Rejection Signals Next Leg Lower

S&P 500 Correction on Track, Targets 5100–5600 Remain

6 weeks ago I told you $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was entering a 20-25% correction. SPX is now down 380+ points from the top and tracking the weekly projection EXACTLY. The target hasn't changed. 5600-5100. We're not done. "Bookmark this. You'll want the receipts later." Here they are. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ -11.51% since $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ -10.18% since $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ -9.25% since $S&P 500(.SPX)$ -7.55% since Halfway to the 20-25% targets. And we're not done. A lot of people are going to wish they paid attention sooner. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and e
S&P 500 Correction on Track, Targets 5100–5600 Remain

$SPX $NDX $DJI Breakdown + $SMCI Short +27% Win

For a bounce, I needed to see at least one index hold the November lows while the others broke them. That's an SMT divergence — it warns that momentum is fading and a reversal is setting up. Instead, $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ all broke those lows together. No divergence. No warning sign. FULL SYNC. When correlated assets move together like this, it confirms the trend — not a reversal. Bearish until a divergence develops. 🎯 $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ Short — CLOSED +27.1% Entered $30.53 on 3/18. Target hit in 2 DAYS. W5 did the rest. Straight into the 100% extension at $22.15. 📍 Entry: $
$SPX $NDX $DJI Breakdown + $SMCI Short +27% Win

$SPX Playbook Works: 6,500 Hit, Trend Continues

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ hit our 6,500 mid-term target ✅ But momentum says the wave count is EVOLVING. Leaning toward a bit more downside in the 3rd wave. Then a 4th wave BOUNCE. Then a 5th wave LOWER. The playbook hasn't missed. No reason to stop following it now. Sheesh, my indicator that I developed LAST WEEK is getting better and BETTER. In beta testing, but it helped frame a short today. Nice +25 GAIN 🔥 ALL members of EWC will be able to test it out once I am done refining. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ 🚨 TARGET HIT. I told you MONTHS ago — Monthly FVG at 6,550–6,500. I never moved the target. Not ONCE. The sell signal triggered. Wave 3 confirmed. $SPX delivered. This is what trusting the S
$SPX Playbook Works: 6,500 Hit, Trend Continues

$SPX Wave 4 Rejection in Play: $TSLA Short Hits +12.83%, Wave 5 Down Next

AS WARNED, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ resolved lower and hit the equal lows in the 3rd wave — EXACTLY as projected. Now in the 4th wave. If its not already complete, expect a rejection at the new bearish Daily FVG at 6,636–6,710 That sets up the 5th wave drop to sweep the November lows at 6,508. If you've been following, you already knew this was coming. Every level. Every wave. MAPPED. Bias remains lower against 6,700. One more leg down to go. Then we'll talk about a bounce. Meanwhile — just closed our $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ short from $438.50. Covered at $382.25. +12.83% on commons. No options. No leverage. Just structure and patience. 3 for 3 in Q1. 100% win rate. 5 more trades open — all green. This isn't luck
$SPX Wave 4 Rejection in Play: $TSLA Short Hits +12.83%, Wave 5 Down Next

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