Short-Term Rally Likely, Long-Term Risks Rising

TopdownCharts
11-23

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:

  • This week we found out where the key support levels are.

  • Seeing some short-term buy signals and “BTFD” activity.

  • Long-term sentiment indicators are sounding cycle warning signs.

  • Capex goes in cycles, the current cycle looks extended (esp. tech).

  • It’s important to layout and quantify downside (and upside) risks.

Overall, the initial wave of the latest risk-off episode looks to have completed with markets finding support (and clarifying the key trigger points from here). Short-term we probably get a rally, but the numerous and varied pressures building up in the system caution against complacency.

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