Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 24Nov25)
There are no public holidays this week for China, Hong Kong and Singapore. America celebrates Thanksgiving on 27 November 2025. Here is wishing all an awesome Thanksgiving.
Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence
Both core retail sales and overall retail sales figures are scheduled to be announced. These results are significant as they provide a direct measure of American consumer spending, a major driver of economic growth. Additionally, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index for November is forecast at 93.3, down from 94.6 in the previous month. This decrease reflects a decline in consumer optimism regarding the market outlook.
Inflation Indicators: PPI and Core PCE
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is set for release with a forecast increase of 0.3%. This index measures inflation at the producer level and often signals future consumer price trends as cost increases are passed along the supply chain.
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for September is also highly anticipated, with a year-on-year forecast of 2.9%. This figure remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% and will be closely watched as a critical factor in upcoming interest rate decisions, likely contributing to market volatility.
Durable Goods Orders
Durable goods orders for September are projected to rise by only 0.3%, a notable decrease from the previous month’s 2.9% increase. This slowdown indicates weaker demand for long-lasting manufactured goods and may signal caution among consumers and businesses.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Third-quarter GDP data will be announced, with the previous quarter’s growth recorded at 3.8%. As a comprehensive measure of economic activity, this report will be a key reference point for the Federal Reserve as it considers its next steps regarding interest rates.
Labour Market: Initial Jobless Claims
The latest initial jobless claims will also be released, with the previous figure standing at 220,000. This data serves as a gauge for labour market strength and may contribute to short-term market volatility depending on the results.
Housing Market: New Home Sales
New home sales data is expected, with a forecast of 710,000 units compared to the prior 800,000. This represents a drop of over 10%+ in sales volume, highlighting a notable slowdown in the real estate sector and serving as an important indicator for housing market trends.
Energy Sector: Crude Oil Inventories
Crude oil inventory levels will be reported before the Thanksgiving holiday. These figures can serve as an early indicator of producer responses to anticipated market consumption. A decrease in inventories would suggest robust demand, aligning with expectations from oil producers ahead of the holiday season.
Earnings Calendar (24Nov25)
I am interested in the coming earnings of Zoom, NIO, Dell, John Deere and Alibaba.
Let us take a look at Zoom.
Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings
Zoom’s stock price has declined by approximately 8.44% over the past year. According to technical analysis, the stock currently holds a “strong sell” rating. However, the overall analyst sentiment indicates a “buy” rating, with a projected price target of $93.04. This target suggests a potential upside of more than 18.33% from current levels.
Revenue Growth
In 2017, Zoom reported annual revenue of $61 million. By 2025, this figure had grown substantially to $4.6 billion, representing a 3.1% increase in revenue compared to 2024.
Operating Performance
Zoom began 2018 with an operating loss of $5 million. By 2025, the company achieved an operating profit of $813 million. While this is not as high as the $1 billion operating profit recorded in 2022, it demonstrates solid growth since 2023.
Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Valuation
The company’s operating EPS improved from -$0.04 in 2018 to $3.21 in 2025. Zoom’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is currently at a healthy level of 20.0.
Upcoming Earnings Forecast
Looking ahead, the forecast for the upcoming earnings call is an EPS of $1.44 and revenue of $1.21 billion. Both figures indicate continued growth compared to previous earnings results.
Zoom seems to be improving despite the post-COVID recovery. Given the above performance, Zoom appeared to be a good value, given the stock price. I prefer to monitor the stock for now, as there are other stocks with more attractive offers.
Market Outlook of S&P500 (24Nov25)
Technical Indicators Overview
MACD Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is currently signalling a downtrend. This downward momentum suggests a potential weakening in the stock’s price movement and may indicate caution for traders monitoring short-term price action.
Moving Averages
The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are both trending upward, which is typically considered bullish for both short- and long-term perspectives. This uptrend points to a positive sentiment in the market.
The most recent candlestick has closed below the 50-day moving average line. This increased volatility, a bearish signal for the short term.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)
On the daily chart, the three exponential moving averages (EMAs) have converged. This convergence suggests the start of a bearish trend.
Chaikin Money Flow
The Chaikin Money Flow indicator currently reads -0.06, which implies that the selling momentum is greater than the buying momentum. This affirms the current selling momentum.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
The CNN Fear & Greed index closed the week with extreme fear (an index score of 11). It is an improvement from the previous close of 6 (extreme fear) and worse than last week’s score of 21.
Technical Analysis Overview
Out of the full set of technical indicators analysed, four indicators provide a “Buy” signal, suggesting some underlying bullish factors. However, a significantly larger portion—nineteen indicators—are issuing a “Sell” signal. This strong predominance of bearish signals contributes to the overall “Strong Sell” rating and highlights prevailing negative sentiment in the market based on technical factors.
Of all the technical indicators reviewed, four suggest a “Buy,” while nineteen indicate a “Sell.” The dominance of bearish signals leads to a “Strong Sell” rating, reflecting negative market sentiment based on technical analysis.
Candlestick Pattern Analysis (from Grok)
Short-term (1–4 weeks): Bearish to neutral
A strong monthly Bearish Engulfing pattern is currently forming at all-time highs, supported by a recent weekly Bearish Engulfing and repeated rejection. Expect a pullback or sideways consolidation.
Long-term (3–12 months): Still bullish
The broader trend remains strongly up, driven by multiple powerful bullish patterns throughout 2025. The current topping signal is the first serious monthly reversal in years and is expected to produce only a normal correction within an ongoing bull market.
Conclusion
Given the data above, the trend is likely to be bearish in the shorter term.
News and my thoughts from the past week (24Nov25)
Investors are DUMPING Bitcoin funds at a RECORD pace: Bitcoin ETF $IBIT saw -$523 MILLION in net outflows on Tuesday, the highest EVER. In 5 days, investors withdrew over $1 BILLION from $IBIT. Over the last 3 weeks, crypto funds have seen $3.2 BILLION in net outflows. - X user Global Markets Investor
Container import bookings into the US are down 16% YoY as retailers tighten up inventories - X user Craig Fuller
Why are stocks falling? Because if you take the numbers in this chart seriously, the hyperscalers will hold at least $2.5 trillion in AI assets by the end of this decade. Assuming a depreciation rate of 20%, that would generate $500 billion in annual depreciation expense. This is more than their combined profits for 2025. - X user Peter Berezin
There were more than one billion equity errors over the span of eight trading days in October. That is not the sign of a healthy stock market. - X user Reese Politics
Bitcoin dumping again just as Japan is set to unveil a ¥21.3 trillion stimulus. - X user ZeroHedge
Japan says its stimulus package will have an overall economic impact of $265 billion. The Japanese Yen just fell to its weakest level against the US Dollar since January 2025. Pandemic-like stimulus is on its way. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
“Small businesses are no longer profitable right now. Truflation came out this morning… is at 2.41%. The main drivers are food and electricity. These are two things over which the Fed has no control.” - Danielle DiMartino Booth (Bloomberg Radio)
$2 BILLION WILL BE LIQUIDATED IF BITCOIN FALLS TO $80,000 - X user BitcoinLFG
Over the last 3 weeks, crypto funds have seen $3.2 BILLION in net outflows - Bloomberg
“A bull market is when the market moves up on bad news. A bear market is when the market moves down on good news.” - X user Craig Fuller
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CMA CGM on Monday said group net income fell 72.6% to $749 million from $2.73 billion on revenue down 11.3% to $14.042 billion from $15.834 billion in the year-ago quarter. There is a drop in revenue from geopolitics & demand. - Freight Waves.
VITALIK: QUANTUM COMPUTERS COULD BREAK ETHEREUM AND BITCOIN BY 2028. He warned that quantum computing could break the elliptic curve cryptography securing Ethereum and Bitcoin within four years. - Coin Bureau
About 25% of the U.S. population has a FICO credit score below 660, meaning they are subprime, per Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk, - Unusual Wahles
AMERICANS NOW NEED 70 PERCENT HIGHER INCOME THAN SIX YEARS AGO TO COMFORTABLY AFFORD A MEDIAN PRICED HOME THE US HOUSING MARKET IS AT ITS MOST UNAFFORDABLE POINT IN HISTORY - First Squawk
Tender rejections are weakening as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday. Note: this is not normal, we should see rejections spiking - Craig Fuller / FreightWaves
The U.S government was shut down for 42 days and total U.S debt STILL jumped by ~$620 billion during that stretch. - Stock Market News
THE US FREIGHT RECESSION IS DEEPENING: TRUCKLOADS INDEX FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2014 AS GOODS MOVEMENT SLOWS SHARPLY - First Squawk
My Investing Muse (24Nov25)
Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news
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Popular crypto company files for Chapter 15 bankruptcy as Bitcoin crashes. The decentralised application (dApp) analytics platform, DappRadar, decided to wind down as running a large organisation has become “financially unsustainable” in the “current environment.” - Yahoo Finance
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On the jobs front. ATT laid off 30% of its workforce last week which is huge even by their standards. I’ve been watching for it to pop up in the news, but haven’t seen anything? 3M also laid off last week with more to come. Roche laid off 50% in some divisions. AbbVie as well. - X user Chey Cab
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Verizon says it will cut 13,000 jobs - X user Unusual Whales
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Tyson Foods is closing a major beef plant in Lexington, Nebraska with 3,200 employees in January and reducing operations at an Amarillo, Texas facility affecting 1,700 workers. US cattle supplies dropped to their lowest level in nearly 75 years after years of drought burned up pastures and hiked feeding costs. Tyson’s beef business lost $426 million in the 12 months ended September and is projected to lose $400 million to $600 million in fiscal 2026. - X user Hedgie
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The U.K. is experiencing a significant employment crisis among Gen Z, with approximately 1.2 million recent graduates competing for only 17,000 entry-level job openings, the most unfavorable supply-to-demand ratio since the late 1990s. - X user Unusual Whales
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Verizon CEO Dan Schulman told the company’s 100,000 employees in a letter Thursday that more than 13,000 layoffs begin today as part of a broad cost cutting push. - X user Stock Market News
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BREAKING: US COLLEGE GRADUATES’ UNEMPLOYMENT HITS 9.3%, HIGHER THAN FINANCIAL CRISIS ERA - X user Inverse Cramer
US job cuts are SKYROCKETING: US firms announced 154,600 job cuts, according to Macroedge tracker, the highest count in at least 2 YEARS. This is a +84% jump from the 84,000 recorded in September. The US labor market is deteriorating FAST. - X user Global Markets Investor
US large bankruptcies are SURGING at a concerning pace: US big bankruptcies reached 655 in the first 10 months of 2025, the highest in 14 YEARS. This was driven by Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors, which have seen 98 and 80 companies fall, respectively. - X user Global Markets Investor
My Final Thoughts
Markets have been highly volatile this week, with sharp declines in both Bitcoin and equities. Recessionary warnings are growing louder.
Next week’s Core PCE release — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — will be the key focus, alongside signs of rising layoffs and weakening confidence in a December rate cut. The impending Epstein files release may also bring renewed scrutiny to high-profile figures.
Rising debt delinquencies remain a concern, as they directly pressure consumer spending and market sentiment. Debt is normal across cycles, but rising defaults are not. Let us proceed with caution. Some advocate “buying the dip,” others warn of “catching a falling knife.” Until clearer, supportive data emerge, “no trade is a good trade too”.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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