Part 3 of 5 - S&P500 outlook - Technicals point to a recovery?

KYHBKO
11-23

Market Outlook of S&P500 (24Nov25)

Technical Indicators Overview

MACD Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is currently signalling a downtrend. This downward momentum suggests a potential weakening in the stock’s price movement and may indicate caution for traders monitoring short-term price action.

Moving Averages

The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are both trending upward, which is typically considered bullish for both short- and long-term perspectives. This uptrend points to a positive sentiment in the market.

The most recent candlestick has closed below the 50-day moving average line. This increased volatility, a bearish signal for the short term.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

On the daily chart, the three exponential moving averages (EMAs) have converged. This convergence suggests the start of a bearish trend.

Chaikin Money Flow

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator currently reads -0.06, which implies that the selling momentum is greater than the buying momentum. This affirms the current selling momentum.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

The CNN Fear & Greed index closed the week with extreme fear (an index score of 11). It is an improvement from the previous close of 6 (extreme fear) and worse than last week’s score of 21.

Technical Analysis Overview

Out of the full set of technical indicators analysed, four indicators provide a “Buy” signal, suggesting some underlying bullish factors. However, a significantly larger portion—nineteen indicators—are issuing a “Sell” signal. This strong predominance of bearish signals contributes to the overall “Strong Sell” rating and highlights prevailing negative sentiment in the market based on technical factors.

Of all the technical indicators reviewed, four suggest a “Buy,” while nineteen indicate a “Sell.” The dominance of bearish signals leads to a “Strong Sell” rating, reflecting negative market sentiment based on technical analysis.

Candlestick Pattern Analysis (from Grok)

Short-term (1–4 weeks): Bearish to neutral

A strong monthly Bearish Engulfing pattern is currently forming at all-time highs, supported by a recent weekly Bearish Engulfing and repeated rejection. Expect a pullback or sideways consolidation.

Long-term (3–12 months): Still bullish

The broader trend remains strongly up, driven by multiple powerful bullish patterns throughout 2025. The current topping signal is the first serious monthly reversal in years and is expected to produce only a normal correction within an ongoing bull market.

Conclusion

Given the data above, the trend is likely to be bearish in the shorter term.

@TigerStars

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Comments

  • doozii
    11-24
    doozii
    Short-term pain but long-term gain. Hold tight through the chop! [龇牙]
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